ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

20:05 USD/CAD holds firm as mixed trade headlines cloud USD outlook
The USD/CAD pair holds steady around the 1.3900 zone on Friday as markets weigh fresh US-China trade headlines and stronger oil prices against a firmer Greenback.

USD/CAD trades near the 1.3900 zone in a tight range ahead of the weekendContradictory US-China tariff headlines and resilient oil prices shape sentimentResistance is seen at 1.3893 and 1.3986, with support at 1.3855The USD/CAD pair holds steady around the 1.3900 zone on Friday as markets weigh fresh US-China trade headlines and stronger oil prices against a firmer Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading higher near 99.60, supported by comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting talks with China are ongoing. However, these claims were quickly disputed by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, which said no negotiations were underway, creating confusion and limiting bullish follow-through in USD/CAD.The mood remains fragile as traders digest mixed trade signals. While Trump claimed progress on negotiations with Beijing, China firmly denied any ongoing tariff consultations, emphasizing that the US should “stop creating confusion.” This contradiction has kept risk appetite in check, weighing on US equity futures and tempering the DXY’s recent rebound.Oil prices remain a supportive factor for the Canadian Dollar. Brent crude hovers above $68 per barrel after surging earlier this week, buoyed by US sanctions on Iranian oil and reports that China may reduce certain US import tariffs. While OPEC+ production increases are expected in May and possibly June, their net effect is likely to remain limited if offset by compensatory cuts, according to Commerzbank analysts.Technical outlook
USD/CAD is flashing an overall bearish signal, trading flat near 1.3900 and consolidating within the intraday range of 1.3846 to 1.3893. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits neutrally at 36, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a sell signal, hinting at downward pressure.Momentum indicators are mixed. The Stochastic RSI Fast (near 41) and the Bull Bear Power (close to 0) both suggest indecision, failing to confirm a directional bias. However, trend-following signals remain bearish. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages at 1.4017, 1.4270, and 1.4009 respectively all slope lower, reinforcing the negative tone. Bearish cues are also seen in the 10-day EMA at 1.3893 and the 10-day SMA at 1.3863.Support rests at 1.3855, just above this week’s low. A break below would expose 1.3800 and 1.3745 next. On the upside, resistance is found at 1.3863, 1.3893, and the psychological 1.3986 zone. Unless USD strength regains momentum or oil prices pull back sharply, the bias for USD/CAD remains skewed to the downside.

20:02 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count rose from previous 481 to 483
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count rose from previous 481 to 483

19:34 EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Euro steadies near 0.8500 amid mixed signals
The EUR/GBP pair was seen trading near the 0.8500 mark during Friday's session, edging lower intraday yet holding within the mid-range of 0.8511 to 0.8548. Investors appear cautious amid a light macroeconomic backdrop, with the pair moving in sync with subtle shifts in broader market sentiment.

EUR/GBP trades near the 0.8500 zone after Friday's European session.Despite a slight intraday pullback, broader signals maintain a bullish tone.Resistance seen near 0.8550; support clustered around the 0.8530–0.8520 area.The EUR/GBP pair was seen trading near the 0.8500 mark during Friday's session, edging lower intraday yet holding within the mid-range of 0.8511 to 0.8548. Investors appear cautious amid a light macroeconomic backdrop, with the pair moving in sync with subtle shifts in broader market sentiment.Technically, the pair continues to exhibit a bullish structure despite the minor pullback. The 20, 100, and 200-day simple moving averages — currently at 0.8533, 0.8377, and 0.8388 respectively — all tilt upward, underscoring long-term strength. This is further backed by the 30-day exponential moving average and 30-day simple average, reinforcing a bullish bias around the 0.8498 and 0.8479 zones.Momentum indicators show a more cautious outlook. The Relative Strength Index holds neutral, while the MACD hints at a possible bearish shift. The Stochastic %K and Commodity Channel Index also remain neutral, suggesting that directional conviction may be limited in the short term.Support is stacked around 0.8533, 0.8533, and 0.8527, while resistance lies at 0.8553, 0.8556, and 0.8565. Traders may look for a clear break above the resistance cluster to confirm renewed upside interest. Until then, the pair may continue to oscillate within its current range, awaiting a catalyst.
Daily Chart

18:48 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro steadies near 1.1400 after soft pullback
The EURUSD pair was seen hovering near the 1.1400 region on Friday after easing slightly in the aftermath of the European session. The pair is consolidating within a narrow range between 1.1315 and 1.1391, reflecting a pause in bullish momentum while still holding ground near recent highs.

EURUSD trades near the 1.1400 area, slipping slightly after the European session.The bullish bias persists despite mixed short-term momentum signals.Resistance seen around 1.1378; support zones near 1.1335 and 1.1215.The EURUSD pair was seen hovering near the 1.1400 region on Friday after easing slightly in the aftermath of the European session. The pair is consolidating within a narrow range between 1.1315 and 1.1391, reflecting a pause in bullish momentum while still holding ground near recent highs.Technically, the broader picture remains constructive. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages all point higher, supporting the ongoing bullish trend. Shorter-term indicators like the 10-day EMA and 30-day EMA also reinforce this outlook, suggesting that pullbacks may find support.Momentum readings, however, are mixed. The Relative Strength Index is neutral, while the MACD continues to issue a buy signal. At the same time, the 10-period Momentum indicator flashes a mild sell, and Bull Bear Power remains flat, highlighting near-term indecision.Key support levels are located at 1.1369, 1.1335, and 1.1215. On the upside, resistance is expected at 1.1378, with further gains likely requiring stronger bullish conviction.

18:16 GBP/USD slips despite strong UK Retail Sales as USD dominance prevails
The Pound Sterling registers losses against the strong US Dollar, yet it remains above 1.3300. A strong UK Retail Sales report failed to underpin Cable, which registers losses of 0.20% as the GBP/USD trades at 1.3311.

17:53 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD plummets to near $33.00 on US-China trade talks
Silver price (XAG/USD) plunges more than 1.5% to near $33.00 during North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal falls sharply from its three-week high of $33.70 posted earlier in the day.

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Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

17:46 BoE's Greene: We should see some trade diversion coming from China
Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene said on Friday that they are not sure if the weakness in the UK economy is caused by demand or supply, per Reuters.

17:00 USD/JPY sets for positive weekly close above 143.00 as US Dollar rebounds
The USD/JPY pair is expected to conclude the week on a positive note above 143.00. The pair surges to near 143.50 on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) has resumed its recovery move on hopes that United States (US) President Donald Trump is close to make deals with number of his trading partners.

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index registered at 47.3 above expectations (47.2) in April
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index registered at 47.3 above expectations (47.2) in April

17:00 United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations registered at 6.5, below expectations (6.7) in April
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations registered at 6.5, below expectations (6.7) in April

17:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (4.4%) in April
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (4.4%) in April

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 52.2 above expectations (50.8) in April
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 52.2 above expectations (50.8) in April

16:16 Lagarde speech: Not pre-committing to a particular rate path
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that the disinflation process in the Eurozone is well on track, per Reuters.

15:39 Chinese Embassy: US and China are not having any negotiations on tariffs
The United States and China are not engaged in any talks on tariffs, the Chinese embassy said on Friday, according to Reuters.

15:35 Temporary setback for Gold? – Commerzbank
After US President Trump backtracked significantly on both tariffs against China and the dismissal of Fed Chair Powell, the price of Gold temporarily fell back below $3,300 per troy ounce, Commerzbank's FX analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

After US President Trump backtracked significantly on both tariffs against China and the dismissal of Fed Chair Powell, the price of Gold temporarily fell back below $3,300 per troy ounce, Commerzbank's FX analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Gold is likely to remain in demand as a safe haven"However, as it remains unclear when and in what form an agreement with the Chinese leadership is possible - there have been different statements on this from Trump, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Beijing - Gold is likely to remain in demand as a safe haven for the time being. In addition, both Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack have fuelled hopes of interest rate cuts with their latest statements.""Waller would expect more and faster interest rate cuts if the situation on the labour market deteriorates significantly due to the tariffs. Hammack, meanwhile, could imagine a first interest rate cut as early as June, depending on the data. Although the market-based US interest rate expectations did not move sustainably as a result - a first move is still expected by the majority in the summer - many market participants are now likely to feel strengthened in their expectations, which is also a support for the Gold price." "In addition to the statements from the White House, attention will now be focussed on the economic data from the US. If these already show clear signs of a slowdown in US tariff policy, the price of Gold could quickly rise again."

15:32 Kazakhstan puts OPEC+ cohesion to the test – Commerzbank
Given this situation, it is hardly conceivable that Kazakhstan will limit oil production as planned, let alone compensate for the current overproduction with larger production cuts, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Given this situation, it is hardly conceivable that Kazakhstan will limit oil production as planned, let alone compensate for the current overproduction with larger production cuts, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Tensions rise as OPEC+ eyes further output boosts"According to the statement of the energy minister, Kazakhstan still sees itself as part of OPEC+ and is committed to cooperate constructively and to fulfill its obligations. However, the other OPEC+ countries will not want to leave it at mere words, as shown by the increased production expansion already agreed in May and the further production increase now being considered for June." "These decisions are likely to be motivated by the fact that Kazakhstan is constantly exceeding its agreed production volumes. If Kazakhstan continues to violate the OPEC+ agreement, this could result in a further increase in production by the other countries out of anger, which would put more pressure on oil prices." "The question therefore also arises as to whether Kazakhstan remaining in OPEC+ might do more harm than good. In recent years, Angola and Qatar have left OPEC because membership no longer suited their respective interests. These departures did not have any negative consequences for OPEC."

15:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (-0.4%) in February
Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (-0.4%) in February

15:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.4%) in February
Canada Retail Sales (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.4%) in February

15:29 JPY soft in context of trade headline-driven market – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.7% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.7% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Markets are waiting for BoJ next week "Tariff headlines are dominating and pressuring the yen as markets consider the possibility of an easing in tensions between the US and China. Domestically, overnight data included the release of stronger than expected CPI data for Tokyo." "The BoJ is widely expected to deliver a hold at next week’s meeting, however the statement’s tone will be closely scrutinized for any indications of a shift in the bank’s plans for further tightening."

15:26 OPEC+ countries consider significant increase in production for June as well – Commerzbank
According to a Reuters report, the eight OPEC+ countries with voluntary production cuts could also increase oil production more significantly in June, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

According to a Reuters report, the eight OPEC+ countries with voluntary production cuts could also increase oil production more significantly in June, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. OPEC+ eyes further output hike in June"A similarly strong increase in production as in May is being considered, according to informed sources. A decision on the production volume in June will be taken at a meeting at the beginning of the week after next. Even though these are as yet unconfirmed rumours, the cracks within the production cartel are apparently getting larger." "A few hours earlier, Reuters reported that Kazakhstan wants to prioritise its national interests over the interests of OPEC+ when deciding on oil production. The new Kazakh energy minister justified this by saying that the western oil companies operating in the country could not be forced to cut production." "The three projects operated by these companies - Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak - account for 70% of the country's total oil production. Shutting down production in the other older oil fields would be impossible because they would no longer be able to produce at all."

15:21 GBP soft but finds modest support – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is down a modest 0.3% and showing relative gains against nearly all the G10 currencies, once again trading in tandem with its peers on trade-related headlines while still lagging in terms of magnitude, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is down a modest 0.3% and showing relative gains against nearly all the G10 currencies, once again trading in tandem with its peers on trade-related headlines while still lagging in terms of magnitude, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP finds modest support from Retail Sales surprise"The release of domestic Retail Sales data appears to have offered support in early European trade as market participants digested the unexpectedly strong (and positive) m/m print for March." "The release is unlikely to influence policymakers ahead of the May 8 BoE rate decision, given the well communicated bias to further accommodation. Markets are pricing in 27bpts of easing for the meeting." "The trend remains bullish, given the sequence of higher lows and higher highs. The RSI is softening but still in bullish territory. Near-term price action appears to have settled within a range roughly bound between support in the low 1.32s and resistance above 1.3400."

15:18 Gold price surge fueled by strong ETF demand – Commerzbank
In the middle of next week, the World Gold Council (WGC) will publish its report on gold demand in the first quarter. This is likely to show that the sharp rise in the gold price in the first three months of the year was driven by strong investment demand.

In the middle of next week, the World Gold Council (WGC) will publish its report on gold demand in the first quarter. This is likely to show that the sharp rise in the gold price in the first three months of the year was driven by strong investment demand. It is already known that gold ETFs recorded inflows of 226 tons in the first quarter, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Jewellery demand drops amid price spike"This alone should provide a strong boost to investment demand, as there were only small inflows in the previous quarter and even noticeable outflows in the same quarter of the previous year. Jewellery demand, on the other hand, is likely to have suffered from the sharp rise in prices, as the weak gold imports to India and China already suggest." "The picture is completed at the beginning of the week by the gold trade data between Hong Kong and China for March. Another interesting aspect of the WGC report are central bank gold purchases. As the majority of purchases have been carried out unreported for almost three years, the available monthly data only represents a small portion." "However, the high purchase levels of the previous quarter and the same quarter of last year are unlikely to be reached, when the central banks bought more than 300 tons of gold each time. The WGC report is not expected to have a price impact though. Instead, the gold price is likely to continue to be driven by the high level of uncertainty."

15:17 EUR weak within range near high – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is weak, down 0.4% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10. Trade-related headlines continue to dominate and data releases have been limited, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is weak, down 0.4% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10. Trade-related headlines continue to dominate and data releases have been limited, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. ECB comments remain dovish"ECB Governing Council member Holzmann has added to this week’s run of dovish commentary, echoing other recent remarks about the disinflationary impact of US tariffs. Markets are pricing in 25bpts of easing for the next ECB policy decision on June 5 and are pricing a cumulative 65bpts of rate cuts by year end." "Technicals remain bullish given the clear sequence of higher lows and higher highs. The RSI is softening but still in bullish territory above 50. The near-term range is roughly bound between support in the upper 1.12s and resistance around 1.1550."

15:02 Brazil Mid-month Inflation meets expectations (0.43%) in April
Brazil Mid-month Inflation meets expectations (0.43%) in April

14:53 CAD eases modestly – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is marginally softer on the session but holding up better than its major currency peers to the USD’s broader rebound, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is marginally softer on the session but holding up better than its major currency peers to the USD’s broader rebound, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD holds consolidation range"Spot remains essentially range bound as investors await the outcome of the Federal election and assess what the result may mean for Canada’s approach to US trade negotiations. February Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.4% in the month, in line with the preliminary data released alongside the (weak) January report." "Recall that sales jumped strongly late last year on the government’s partial tax holiday, front-loading activity to some extent. Tariff concerns also likely weighed on shoppers’ minds. Spot remains in consolidation mode." "Short term bear trend momentum has faded, leaving USD/CAD drifting between support around 1.3785/90 and resistance around 1.3900/05. There are some signs from price action that markets are slowly accumulating USD on dips—which can often be a prelude to renewed gains and an accelerated rebound but broader trend strength signals suggest that the USD is still facing quite significant headwinds. Scope for gains remains limited."

14:50 Brent rises above $68 on trade hopes, sanctions – Commerzbank
The price of Brent oil rose to more than $68 per barrel this week, reaching its highest level since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump at the beginning of April, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The price of Brent oil rose to more than $68 per barrel this week, reaching its highest level since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump at the beginning of April, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Markets eye potential June supply boost from OPEC+"The price has recovered around $10 from the 4-year low recorded shortly afterwards. Hopes of a possible rapprochement in the tariff conflict between the US and China and new US sanctions against the Iranian oil sector and buyers of Iranian oil have recently provided a tailwind. The significant increase in oil supply by OPEC+ in May appears to have been digested, at least for the time being." "This is because the simultaneous production cuts to compensate for previous overproduction may result in oil production in the eight OPEC+ countries rising less sharply than is stated on paper. According to a report by Reuters, which is based on informed sources, these eight OPEC+ countries are considering a further significant increase in production for June. A decision on this is to be made at a meeting on 5 May." "Should this materialise, a negative price reaction could be expected. Oil prices could already be affected by this prospect in the coming week. The surveys on OPEC production in April due at the end of next week are likely to show a small rise in production, as the first slight production increase came into force this month. However, this is only likely to have an impact on the market if production volumes have increased more than agreed."

14:40 WTI tumbles to near $62.00 on OPEC’s supply increase, potential demand concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, is down over 1% to near $62.00 during European trading hours on Friday.

14:36 US Dollar steady with China-US relations clouds
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades slightly higher and turns positive for the week on Friday.

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Meanwhile, China came out pushing back against comments as trade talks are underway between the two countries. The US Dollar Index remains capped below the 100.00 round level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades slightly higher and turns positive for the week on Friday. Traders are divided, though, after the US and China left contradictory comments on whether trade deal negotiations are taking place. United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US is talking to China, propping up the equity markets higher, and favoring the Greenback’s return. Additionally, citing sources familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported on Friday that China is mulling suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports, including medical equipment, ethane and plane leasing. However, China's Foreign Ministry clarified that “China and the US are not having any consultations or negotiations on tariffs.” When asked about tariff exemptions on some US goods, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, “I'm not familiar with specifics, I refer you to competent authorities.”On the economic calendar front, there is a very light calendar ahead. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has entered its blackout period ahead of its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7. Meanwhile, this Friday, traders can look at the final April reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers and inflation expectations. Daily digest market movers: Headline risks persistAt 14:00 GMT, the University of Michigan will release its final reading for April.The Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to remain unchanged at 50.8 as in the preliminary reading.The 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations are expected to come in at 4.4%.Equities are carefully buying into the element that US President Trump might be right that China and the US are talking, while China feels the pain of elevated US import prices into China by local companies. Overall, green numbers with around 0.50% gains across Europe and in US futures.The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May’s meeting stands at 6.1% against a 95.3% probability of no change. The June meeting still has around a 61.4% chance of a rate cut. The US 10-year yields trade around 4.29%, looking for direction as markets face some knee-jerk reactions on the Trump comments. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Difficult to look from hereThe US Dollar Index (DXY) might look bullish and set to jump higher once headlines emerge of a possible trade deal between China and the US, as rumours are building up now towards that possibility. However, a big downside risk comes with a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which would boost the Euro (EUR) and weigh on the DXY. So, there are a lot of moving parts that could outweigh the upside or downside for the US Dollar Index.On the upside, the DXY’s first resistance comes in at 99.58, where a false break occurred Wednesday and Thursday. Should the US Dollar extend recovery, look for 100.22, which supported the DXY in September 2024, with a break back above the 100.00 round level as a bullish signal of their return. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90.On the other hand, the 97.73 support could quickly be tested on any substantial bearish headline. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94, before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

14:34 USD steadies, challenges remain – Scotiabank
Markets are ending the week on a steadier note. The USD is a little stronger, US equity futures slipping back after yesterday’s pop higher and US Treasurys are a little firmer.

Markets are ending the week on a steadier note. The USD is a little stronger, US equity futures slipping back after yesterday’s pop higher and US Treasurys are a little firmer. The market mood has improved around hopes for progress on US/ China trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD steadies as markets hope for trade progress "The US administration continues to indicate that the two countries are talking on trade but China flatly denies this. Beijing is considering exempting some US goods from tariffs in similar fashion to the recent US decision to wave tariffs on some electronics goods but that reflects practicalities—rising costs at home—rather than a move to de-escalate the trade war. Speculation about a summer Fed rate cut also helped lift equity market sentiment after Cleveland Fed President Hammack suggested the Fed could cut in June if there was 'clear and convincing' data." "The lags that are likely before the stall in US/China trade become more apparent in the real economy may mean June is still too early for the Fed to move, however. President Trump is reported today as saying that he expects trade deals in the next '3-4 weeks'. Trade hopes spring eternal for markets but it is far from clear that there are grounds for any real optimism at this point. China is playing the long game and the position the US has left itself in suggests few will be rushing to make any concrete trade deals any time soon. On the plus side for the US, data do reflect a pickup in receipts from tariffs in the Treasury’s daily statement. Daily receipts hit USD11.7bn at the start of the week." "The USD remains at risk of further weakening we think; slower growth and recession worries are a concern, which may eventually play out through lower US interest rates, pulling the USD lower. International investors are still likely to reduce exposure to the USD as “US exceptionalism” fades and portfolios are rebalanced away from US capital markets. A correction in a still overvalued USD is a likely longer run outcome of the US administration’s desire to rebalance global trade. Nearterm, DXY gains remain capped around 99.85 resistance."

14:31 India FX Reserves, USD increased to $686.15B in April 14 from previous $677.84B
India FX Reserves, USD increased to $686.15B in April 14 from previous $677.84B

13:30 Russia Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (21%)
Russia Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (21%)

13:27 CNY: Waiting for the PMIs – Commerzbank
Next week, China will release its official PMIs, which, unlike in other countries, are always released on the last day of the month rather than the first day of the following month.

Next week, China will release its official PMIs, which, unlike in other countries, are always released on the last day of the month rather than the first day of the following month. This will be the first major data release since 'Liberation Day', when US tariffs on imports from China were increased by a total of 125 percentage points across a wide range of products. There are already anecdotal reports of factory closures and sharply reduced working hours. However, high-frequency data from China in particular paint a different picture (thus far), Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. CNY holds firm amid trade tensions"Steel production, for example, remains very robust. In the first 20 days of April, steel production was around 10% higher than in the same period last year. Car sales are also currently on track for high single-digit growth in April. According to the National Statistics Institute, there has also been no significant decline in shipping traffic.""The situation is different in the housing market, where daily sales data once again point to a significant slowdown in momentum and thus to no end to the crisis. However, it must also be said that the housing market has been in crisis for years and that this development is unlikely to have much to do with the tariffs.""Alternative sentiment indicators point to a slowdown, but not a collapse. A similar picture can be expected from the official PMIs. The CNY should be less affected. The exchange rate against the US dollar has been fairly stable for several days. And this is likely to remain the case as long as there is no further positive movement on the political front regarding the tariff situation. In that case, USD/CNY could fall slightly."

13:26 AUD/USD slumps to near 0.6380 as US Dollar bounces back
The AUD/USD pair falls sharply to near 0.6380 in Friday’s North American session. The Aussie pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) resumes its upside recovery after a corrective move on Thursday.

13:19 JPY: One-off effect lifts inflation – Commerzbank
The inflation rate for the Tokyo area rose to 3.5% in April, once again exceeding the expectations of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Rice prices rose sharply again in April, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

The inflation rate for the Tokyo area rose to 3.5% in April, once again exceeding the expectations of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Rice prices rose sharply again in April, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Tokyo inflation hits 3.5%, beats forecasts"They are now 94% higher than in the same month last year. This time, however, they were not the main cause of the renewed rise. In April last year, school fees in Japan were significantly reduced, which had a one-off effect of pushing down inflation. This effect has now disappeared from the data, pushing the annual rate back up. As a result, the core rate, which excludes energy and food, also rose from 1.1% in March to 2.0%.""The inflation picture therefore looks somewhat better for the Bank of Japan, which will meet next week on 1 May to make its next monetary policy decision. However, uncertainties remain high at the moment. US tariffs were raised sharply at the beginning of April, and it is not yet possible to assess their full economic impact. Therefore, I still believe that it will be too early for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again next week and that the next rate hike is more likely in July."

13:11 Brent rebounds off $58.40 channel base – Société Générale
Brent crude has bounced from the lower limit of its downtrend but faces key resistance at $68.70–$70.50. A failure to break higher could trigger a pullback, with $65.30 and $62.30 as key support levels, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

Brent crude has bounced from the lower limit of its downtrend but faces key resistance at $68.70–$70.50. A failure to break higher could trigger a pullback, with $65.30 and $62.30 as key support levels, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Support at $65.30 is key for short-term outlook"Brent has staged a rebound after probing the lower limit of a descending channel drawn since 2023 at $58.40. The upside has so far remained contained at graphical levels of $68.70/70.50 representing lows of last year and the 50-DMA.""This is an interim resistance zone. If the bounce peters out near this hurdle, a short-term pullback can’t be ruled out. Recent pivot low of $65.30 is first support. Break below this can result in a deeper pullback towards $62.30 and recent trough at $58.40."

13:07 RUB: CBR likely to signal rate cuts before end of year – Commerzbank
Russia’s central bank (CBR) will announce its rate decision today: analysts unanimously expect an unchanged key rate of 21.0%, which has been pre-signalled by policymakers.

Russia’s central bank (CBR) will announce its rate decision today: analysts unanimously expect an unchanged key rate of 21.0%, which has been pre-signalled by policymakers. What will be interesting to observe, post-meeting, is to what extent governor Elvira Nabiullina is willing to appear dovish already, and confirm rate cuts for later in the year (which CBR surveys indicate that market participants forecasts widely anticipate), Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Inflation slows, eyes on Nabiullina’s tone"Pro-inflation risks are easing finally: a stronger rouble exchange rate is helping in the disinflationary direction; CBR had anticipated SAAR inflation at c.8% for March 2025, but the outcome turned out to be a more dovish 7.1% (for comparison, inflation was running at 14.1% at the end of last year); latest weekly data show CPI increasing at 0.09% w/w for the week of April 15-21, which is not really a worrisome pace.""On the real economy side, recent data on GDP, PMIs, retail sales and bank lending to corporates, all show noticeable moderation. CBR’s updated mid-term projections will most likely feature downward revisions to growth, inflation and average key rate forecasts, although we are not sure that CBR will be willing to make downward revisions to inflation and rate forecasts yet. That will depend on whether or not the bank has decided to show a more dovish face already. It may weigh on the minds of board members that last year’s rate pause (when the interest rate was at 16.0%) turned out to be premature and sparked an inflationary upswing, forcing rate hikes to re-start.""On balance, we think that CBR’s key rate will likely stay unchanged at 21.0% another quarter at least. Subsequently, rate cuts will likely begin. This shift in monetary policy will not impact the artificial USD/RUB or EUR/RUB exchange rates noticeably. The rouble is strong at the moment because of some optimism that the war may be coming to an end and that some sanctions could be lifted as part of a peace deal. But, in our view, this is fragile ground and we forecast USD/RUB and EUR/RUB to drift gradually upward over the coming year."

13:01 USD: So far, importers seem to be footing the bill – Commerzbank
As US-China tariff tensions escalate, early data suggest US importers are shouldering most of the burden, with little price relief from Chinese exporters. Despite sharp tariff hikes, consumer prices remain largely unaffected — for now.

As US-China tariff tensions escalate, early data suggest US importers are shouldering most of the burden, with little price relief from Chinese exporters. Despite sharp tariff hikes, consumer prices remain largely unaffected — for now. But pressure is building, and both sides may soon be forced back to the negotiating table, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. US importers absorb costs as China holds firm"As most of the escalation in bilateral tariffs took place after 2 April, there is currently no monthly economic data available on the impact on foreign trade and in particular on US import prices. However, the US already raised its tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points in February and again in March. Data are already available for this period.""According to these data, prices for US imports from China fell by only 0.3% between January and March, showing no impact at all from the US tariffs. This would imply that US importers had to pay the increased tariff and were unable to negotiate price concessions from their suppliers in China in return.""It is therefore likely that importers have absorbed the price increases for the time being, hoping that the tariffs will be lowered again and that larger price increases to consumers can be avoided. If this were the case, it would also explain why resistance is now growing."

12:45 DXY: Technical rebound is under way – OCBC
Relative calm continues to be observed this week amid Trump’s de-escalation. Trump continued to speak about how his administration was talking to China about trade even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations.

Relative calm continues to be observed this week amid Trump’s de-escalation. Trump continued to speak about how his administration was talking to China about trade even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations. Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman He Yadong said that 'any reports on development in talks are groundless' and urged the US to 'show sincerity' if it wants to make a deal. DXY was last seen at 99.60 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bearish momentum on daily chart fades"Separately, we also shared that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Guo Jiakun said that China's stance on the tariff war initiated by the US is clear: we do not wish to fight, nor are we afraid to fight. If it comes to a fight, we will see it through; if it comes to talks, our door is open. He emphasised that if the US truly wants to resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and coercing and engage in dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit." "This morning, Bloomberg headlines reported that China was said to exempt some US goods from tariffs as costs rise. The case of a de-escalation narrative persisting for a while more should not be ruled out and can aid USD short covering (especially against safe haven proxies), following the >10% decline (at one point) since Jan peak. The broad USD bounce may also see some AxJs come under pressure in the interim, despite conciliatory tone towards a trade truce/deal." "Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose. Resistance at 100.10, 100.80/101.20 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough, 21 DMA). Support at 99.10, 98.60 levels. Elsewhere, we caution that month-end USD rebalancing flows may risk distorting FX price action."

12:32 USD/JPY dodges the currency accord bullet – ING
On the subject of trade talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's discussions with Japan and South Korea seem to be going well, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

On the subject of trade talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's discussions with Japan and South Korea seem to be going well, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.USD/JPY can edge back to the 145 area"Some kind of deal with South Korea could be reached next week. Japan talks are ongoing. In this space, we have mentioned the risk that trade talks could lead to some new (dollar bearish) currency arrangements consistent with the idea of a Mar-a-lago accord." "However, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said late yesterday that currency targets were not discussed in meetings with Scott Bessent. USD/JPY has probably fallen quite enough for Washington for the time being and US policymakers prefer some dollar stability and a recovery in equity markets as opposed to another blast of volatility that a new currency accord could unleash." "This news may be providing a little support to USD/JPY now, which could edge back to the 145 area before it faces some fresh downside risks next week."

12:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

12:26 EUR/USD declines as US Dollar gains on hopes of easing US-China trade war
EUR/USD trades lower around 1.1350 during European trading hours on Friday. The major currency pair weakens due to a recovery move in the US Dollar (USD) on hopes of an improvement in trade relations between the United States (US) and China.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD falls to near 1.1350 as the US Dollar resumes recovery on increasing odds of de-escalation in the US-China trade war.Beijing is considering pausing additional tariffs on some goods from the US.ECB’s Holzmann warns about structural weakness in the Eurozone economy.EUR/USD trades lower around 1.1350 during European trading hours on Friday. The major currency pair weakens due to a recovery move in the US Dollar (USD) on hopes of an improvement in trade relations between the United States (US) and China.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, resumes its upside recovery on Friday after correcting to near 99.20 the previous day. The USD Index rises to near 99.65 and aims to break above the weekly high around 100.00.The confidence of financial market participants that the trade war between the world’s largest powerhouses could de-escalate has increased as China has signaled that it is considering suspending the 125% duty on imports of medical equipment and some industrial chemicals from the US, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.This week, dialogues from the White House expressing optimism that Washington and Beijing could make a deal had stemmed hopes that the tariff war would not spiral further. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump stated that “discussions with Beijing are going well” and added that he thinks “they will reach a deal”.On the contrary, China has denied any discussions with the US. “There have not been economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States,” a spokesperson from Beijing said on Thursday. Additionally, China has clarified that the US needs to “completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures” if it wants trade talks.On the monetary policy front, a chorus of policymakers has indicated that excessive uncertainty due to new economic policies by US President Trump could damage the economy. Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari warned on Thursday that the uncertainty posed by policies from the President could lead to “business lay-offs”. Kashkari ruled out the possibility that businesses have started cutting labor force but cautioned that some businesses indicate they are preparing for “possible job cuts if uncertainty continues”.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD drops while Euro remains firmEUR/USD edges down due to USD’s strength. The Euro (EUR) is up against its major peers, except North American currencies, on Friday, even though European Central Bank (ECB) dovish bets are bloating due to growing concerns that the Eurozone inflation could undershoot the central bank’s target of 2%.On Thursday, ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn warned about downside risks to inflation. "It is quite possible that the projections for medium-term inflation under the current circumstances may well be below the 2% target,” Rehn said at the sidelines of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. Rehn expressed confidently that the current situations “justify an interest rate cut in June”.During European trading hours, ECB policymaker and Austria’s central bank governor Robert Holzmann has shown concerns over structural weakness in the continent. Holzmann expects that fears of economic shocks will remain intact despite the tariffs announced by Donald Trump being lowered. “I see economic scars even if tariffs are lowered,” Holzmann said. Such a scenario also paves the way for monetary policy easing.The next trigger for the Euro would be headlines from the White House and the European Union (EU) about potential trade relations between both sides of the Atlantic.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD falls to near 1.1350EUR/USD drops to near 1.1350 on Friday. However, the outlook of the major currency pair remains bullish as the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping higher around 1.0885.The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs to near overbought levels above 70.00 in the weekly chart, which indicates a strong bullish momentum, but chances of some correction cannot be ruled out.Looking up, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the July 2023 high of 1.1276 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:25 EUR: 1.1250 is the risk for EUR/USD – ING
The very modest dollar bounce has seen EUR/USD trade a little lower.

The very modest dollar bounce has seen EUR/USD trade a little lower. Over recent weeks we had mentioned that an extreme 5-6% risk premium in the dollar could see EUR/USD briefly trade 1.15/16 - which we saw on Monday - but that risk premium is now starting to come out of the dollar as the mood music on trade improves and the President has backed Fed Chair Jerome Powell. EUR/USD risks a dip under 1.1300 to 1.1250"Of course, no one has any confidence about how long these calmer conditions will last. What we would say is that some further modest advance in US equities could drag EUR/USD back to the 1.1250 area and it may be there – 1.1250 – where all the 'structural' dollar sellers could re-emerge if you believe Washington's destruction of the rules-based international order has permanently damaged the dollar's status as the leading reserve currency.""We have our doubts about the above – and have an end-quarter EUR/USD target at 1.13 – but would revise that higher if the US data fell away more quickly and the Fed had to cut more than the 100-125bp currently priced in. There shouldn't be much market moving data today, so EUR/USD risks a dip under 1.1300 to 1.1250 should US equities continue to creep higher.""Elsewhere, sterling is doing well after another good retail sales figure. EUR/GBP breaking under 0.8520/25 could lead to a much deeper correction."

12:23 EUR/USD: Corrective pullback underway – OCBC
Euro (EUR) continued to ease lower after hitting a more than 3Y high of 1.1570s. EUR was last at 1.1350 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Euro (EUR) continued to ease lower after hitting a more than 3Y high of 1.1570s. EUR was last at 1.1350 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks skewed to the downside"De-escalation in tariff angst is helping stretched market moves to normalise. To add, ECB officials turned more dovish. ECB’s Rehn said that the ECB should keep lowering interest rates at its next meeting in June if forecasts show Eurozone inflation falling below the ECB’s 2% target. He also said that the ECB should not rule out larger interest rate cuts." "ECB Chief Economist Lane said that there is no reason to say that a 25bp move is always the default, although he would not pre-commit to any rate path. Separately, the ECB is considering to change its monetary policy strategy to enable more nimble responses to price shocks as the global environment becomes increasingly volatile. This will be discussed at an informal retreat on 6-7 May in Portugal." "Bullish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside. Support at 1.1290 before 1.1235 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high) and 1.1160 (21 DMA). Resistance at 1.1410, 1.1570 (recent high)."

12:20 USD: Some modest retracement – ING
The dollar is continuing its positive correlation with US equity markets and is edging higher. Investors seem to be taking positively the newsflow that US-China tariffs could be negotiated substantially lower.

The dollar is continuing its positive correlation with US equity markets and is edging higher. Investors seem to be taking positively the newsflow that US-China tariffs could be negotiated substantially lower. For example, equities have rallied a little on the news overnight that China could cut their own 125% tariffs on US goods from certain sectors such as healthcare, aviation and manufacturing, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY can head back to the 100.25/50 area"Even though Chinese self-interest may well be driving these developments, investors are still welcoming some flexibility here. Equally, investors seemed to ignore bearish headlines from China yesterday that there was no US-China trade dialogue underway and that it would be the US which would have to make the first unilateral move to cut tariffs.""As to the USD more broadly, it could find a little support as trade tensions calm a little. The next big chapter here will be whether all this volatility has hit real world decisions. There is plenty of US jobs data released next week and any deterioration here could trigger another round of dollar losses - albeit a more benign dollar decline on the view that the Federal Reserve would be riding to the rescue after all. In terms of Fed pricing, the market now seems comfortable to price the first cut in July.""For today, US equities are being called a little higher after some good results from Alphabet. DXY could head back to the 100.25/50 area but stall there. Keep a close eye on the S&P 500, where any close above the 5570/5600 area could suggest we're seeing something more than a bear market correction."

11:56 Gold edges down amid clash over status of US-China trade talks
Gold price (XAU/USD) is on the back foot on Friday, almost erasing all of Thursday’s gains, and looks set to close off this week in the red.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price dips on Friday and looks set to close off this week at a loss. China says no trade talks are underway with the US, refuting Trump’s claims of ongoing negotiations.Traders appear to be buying into the rumours of a deal, pushing stocks higher and reducing their exposure to Gold. Gold price (XAU/USD) is on the back foot on Friday, almost erasing all of Thursday’s gains, and looks set to close off this week in the red. The downmove comes amid increasing confusion on what is the status of the trade conflict between the United States (US) and China, with US President Donald Trump giving the impression that talks are taking place and China denying it. In early trading on Friday, Bloomberg released a headline that mentioned China is weighing exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs are rising out of control, throwing markets left and right. At the same time, Bloomberg also reported that the country is preparing emergency plans to deal with external shocks with new finance and policy tools. Daily digest market movers: SNB books gain on Gold rushAfter reports from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) booked a 6.7 billion Swiss Francs (CHF) profit on the back of its Gold holdings in the first quarter of 2025, the central bank of Kenya says it is considering adding Gold to its reserves to diversify its foreign-exchange holdings beyond the dollar and other currencies, Bloomberg reports. The record-setting rally in Gold and its large intraday moves made waves in China by stoking retail demand, fanning unprecedented trading volumes on the Shanghai exchange and drawing warnings from the authorities, Reuters reports.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and South Korea could reach an “agreement of understanding” on trade as soon as next week, Bloomberg reports. More and more headlines on possible trade deal agreements should put downward pressure on Gold. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Semantics-related problems The overheated Gold rally looks to be in need of some further cooling. Traders look to be buying into the rumors that a trade deal between the US and China could come very soon, despite China coming out contradicting those rumors. The risk here could be that markets are misinterpreting the US semantic on whether they are “talking” or “negotiating”, and that no deal is done anytime soon with possibly a revisit to $3,500 Looking at technical levels, the daily Pivot Point at $3,335 is the first upside and intraday level that needs to be reclaimed. The R1 intraday resistance saw a small attempt for a test in very early opening this Friday, coming in around $3,381. Further up, Gold price could extend the rally to the R2 resistance at $3,414, surpassing the $3,400 handle. On the downside, the S1 support this morning briefly broke, though sees price action now reversing back above it, at $3,302. Further down, the S2 support at $3,256 precedes the technical pivotal floor near $3,245 (April 11 high).XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

11:55 USD/CAD sits near weekly top, just below 1.3900 ahead of Canadian Retail sales
The USD/CAD pair retains its positive bias through the first half of the European session on Friday and currently trades near the top end of the weekly range.

11:14 SNB's Schlegel: Economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel warned on Friday that an “economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out.”

10:31 ECB’s Holzmann: Next policy steps are completely open
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann said on Friday that “next policy steps are completely open.”

10:30 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $33.50 due to easing US-China trade concerns
Silver price (XAG/USD) inches lower following two days of gains, trading around $33.40 per troy ounce during the European hours on Friday. The metal’s safe-haven appeal weakens as reports emerge suggesting China may lift tariffs on certain US imports.

10:29 Pound Sterling attracts bids on upbeat UK Retail Sales data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back against its major peers on Friday after the release of surprisingly positive United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for March.

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while economists had anticipated a 0.4% decline. In February, the consumer spending measure grew by 0.7%, revised lower from 1%.Year-on-year Retail Sales surprisingly grew at a faster pace of 2.6% compared to the prior release of 2.2% and the moderate pace of 1.8% expected.Theoretically, upbeat UK Retail Sales data force traders to pare bets favoring an expansionary monetary policy stance by the Bank of England (BoE). However, traders are increasingly confident that the BoE will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% in the May policy meeting.Severe uncertainty over the global economic outlook in the face of tariffs announced by United States (US) President Donald Trump earlier this month and slower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March are major catalysts behind firm BoE dovish bets.BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned that “tariffs” announced by the US and “countermeasures” by other nations are expected to bring “shockwaves” to the UK economic growth, while talking to CNBC television on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s Spring Meetings in Washington. However, Bailey ruled out the possibility of a recession. "I don’t think the UK economy is close to recession at the moment," Bailey said. On Wednesday, he stressed the need to consider trade war risk. "We do have to take very seriously the risk to growth, Bailey said.Meanwhile, investors look for trade negotiations between UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and Washington on Friday. Ahead of negotiations, Reeves said at US television outlet Newsmax on Thursday that she is confident they can “strike a deal”. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.23% 0.25% 0.49% 0.12% 0.17% 0.35% 0.40% EUR -0.23% 0.02% 0.24% -0.13% -0.07% 0.12% 0.16% GBP -0.25% -0.02% 0.21% -0.14% -0.08% 0.09% 0.11% JPY -0.49% -0.24% -0.21% -0.36% -0.33% -0.16% -0.12% CAD -0.12% 0.13% 0.14% 0.36% -0.04% 0.23% 0.25% AUD -0.17% 0.07% 0.08% 0.33% 0.04% 0.19% 0.20% NZD -0.35% -0.12% -0.09% 0.16% -0.23% -0.19% 0.01% CHF -0.40% -0.16% -0.11% 0.12% -0.25% -0.20% -0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling aims for firm-footing against US DollarThe Pound Sterling strives to gain ground near the intraday low of 1.3280 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours after the release of the upbeat UK Retail Sales data. However, the GBP/USD pair is still down almost 0.3% as the US Dollar (USD) is outperforming on hopes of a de-escalation in the US-China trade war.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds to near 99.70 after a steep correction on Thursday. Fears of a spiralling trade war between the world’s two largest powerhouses started diminishing after the White House indicated that a deal could be done and signaled that both nations could reduce tariffs before coming to the table.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Wednesday that both nations will reduce additional tariffs imposed recently. “Neither side believes that these are sustainable levels,” Bessent said. Hopes of a de-escalation in the tariff war have got an extra boost as Beijing has indicated that it is considering tariff exemptions for some US goods. According to a Bloomberg report, China is considering pausing a 125% import duty on US medical equipment and some industrial chemicals.On the economic front, stronger-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders data for March has indicated that tariff policies by US President Trump have started feeding into business activities. The cost of orders for durable goods received by business owners rose at a robust pace of 9.2%, beating estimates of 2% and the prior release of 0.9%. A multi-fold increase in the economic data is evidence of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ stance of avoiding any monetary policy adjustments before getting greater clarity on how new economic policies will shape the economic outlook.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling declines to near 1.3300The Pound Sterling trades lower to near 1.3300 against the US Dollar in Wednesday’s European session. The outlook of the pair remains firm as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down to near 63.00 after turning overbought. This indicates a mild correction in the pair after a strong rally but doesn’t invalidate the upside trend.On the upside, the psychological level of 1.3500 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 3 high around 1.3200 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:25 Chinese Foreign Ministry: China and US are not having any negotiations on tariffs
Commenting on the trade talks with the United States (US), China's Foreign Ministry clarified that “China and the US are not having any consultations or negotiations on tariffs.”

10:09 EUR/INR: Indian Rupee cross rates down at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Friday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.93, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 97.19.

09:55 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds losses below 0.6000, support appears at nine-day EMA
The NZD/USD pair offers its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5960 during early European trading hours on Friday.

09:52 Forex Today: US Dollar regains traction on renewed optimism about easing US-China tensions
Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 25:

09:46 France Business Climate in Manufacturing came in at 99, above expectations (96) in April
France Business Climate in Manufacturing came in at 99, above expectations (96) in April

09:45 EUR/GBP holds below 0.8550 on upbeat UK Retail Sales data
The EUR/GBP cross loses momentum to near 0.8530 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) after the stronger-than-expected UK economic data.

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The UK Retail Sales rose 0.4% MoM in March vs. -0.4% expected.Investors will closely watch the US-UK trade talks as the UK Finance Minister is scheduled to meet the US Treasury Secretary on Friday.The EUR/GBP cross loses momentum to near 0.8530 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) after the stronger-than-expected UK economic data. Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday that the UK Retail Sales increased 0.4% MoM in March versus a rise of 0.7% prior (revised from 1.0%). This figure came in above the market consensus of a decline of 0.4%. On an annual basis, Retail Sales jumped 2.6% in March compared to a rise of 2.2% prior, better than the estimation of 1.8%. The GBP attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the upbeat UK Retail Sales data. On the Euro’s front, the dovish remarks from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers drag the shared currency lower. ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn said on Thursday that the central bank should not rule out a "larger interest rate cut". Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said on Wednesday that the central bank may have to lower interest rates to levels that stimulate the economy if trade uncertainty proves more damaging to growth. Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-UK trade talks. UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is scheduled to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday. High on the agenda will be a possible trade deal, which Britain hopes will reduce the hit from Trump's import tariffs to its exporters of goods, including cars and steel. Reeves said on Thursday she was confident Britain could reach a trade deal with the US. However, the lack of clarity of trade policy could weigh on the GBP and create a tailwind for EUR/GBP. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:36 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $939.59 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $951.55.
In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $965.55 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also under pressure after the XPT/USD pair settled at $977.35 at the previous close.

09:08 USD/CHF maintains position above 0.8300 due to US-China trade optimism
USD/CHF recovered its previous session losses and is trading around 0.8320 during the Asian session on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF appreciates as the US Dollar is strengthening, as investor sentiment improves.AmCham China President Michael Hart remarked that it's encouraging to see the US and China reviewing tariffs.Analysts argue that currency intervention by the SNB may be more effective than additional rate cuts.USD/CHF recovered its previous session losses and is trading around 0.8320 during the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) is strengthening as investor sentiment improves, driven by a Bloomberg report suggesting China may suspend its 125% tariffs on select US imports, including medical equipment, ethane, and aircraft leasing.Sources familiar with the matter indicated that Chinese officials are particularly considering a waiver on tariffs for aircraft leases. However, China’s Ministry of Finance and the General Administration of Customs have yet to issue any official comments.Michael Hart, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, remarked that it's encouraging to see the US and China reviewing tariffs. Hart noted that while exclusion lists for specific categories are reportedly in the works, no official announcements or policies have been released yet. Both China’s Ministry of Commerce and the US Department of Commerce are currently gathering input on the matter.Optimism around US trade negotiations is also supporting the Greenback, with Reuters reporting progress in early talks with key Asian allies such as South Korea and Japan. The Trump administration could reduce tariffs on Chinese imports, depending on the progress of potential talks with Beijing. China expressed a willingness to engage in discussions.However, the Swiss Franc (CHF) gained ground, reaching its strongest level in over a decade against the USD as of April 21. This strength is largely due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global trade uncertainties.The appreciation of the CHF has put downward pressure on import prices, challenging the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) inflation target of 0–2%, especially with inflation hovering near zero. With the SNB’s key interest rate at just 0.25% and likely to decline further, analysts believe that currency intervention may be a more effective approach than rate cuts. Nonetheless, the SNB has reiterated that it does not manipulate the currency, emphasizing that any interventions are solely aimed at maintaining price stability. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

09:04 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.84 per barrel, up from Thursday’s close at $62.61.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $65.65 price posted on Thursday, and trading at $65.88.

09:04 UK Retail Sales jump 0.4% MoM in March vs. -0.4% expected
The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales jumped 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in March after advancing 0.7% in February, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday. Markets expected a 0.4% drop in the reported month.

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) above expectations (-0.3%) in March: Actual (0.5%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) above expectations (-0.3%) in March: Actual (0.5%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (2.3%) in March
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (2.3%) in March

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.8%) in March: Actual (2.6%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.8%) in March: Actual (2.6%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (-0.4%) in March
United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (-0.4%) in March

08:56 China’s Politburo: Will cut the RRR and interest rates in a timely manner
China held the Politburo meeting on Friday, with the key takeaways noted below.

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Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

08:28 US Dollar Index rebounds above 99.50 on US trade talks progress
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, edges higher to near 99.75 during the early European session on Friday amid positive developments in negotiations with allies India, Japan and South Korea.

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Hope for US trade talks with allies to support the US Dollar. China pushes for tariff cancellation to end the trade war. The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, edges higher to near 99.75 during the early European session on Friday amid positive developments in negotiations with allies India, Japan and South Korea. Investors brace for the final reading of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which is due later on Friday.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that India is likely to become the first country to finalise a bilateral trade agreement with the US to avoid Trump's reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports. Japan's economy minister, Ryosei Akazawa, will hold a second round of trade talks with Bessent next week. Meanwhile, South Korea asked for “calm” and “orderly” discussions with the US on trade issues, as it seeks to work out a deal with the US before the pause on reciprocal tariffs is lifted in July. Any signs of trade talks progress could lift the Greenback in the near term."If the perception spreads that a reduction in tariffs is near, it could positively influence tariff negotiations with other countries, leading to a retreat from risk-off sentiment and a decrease in U.S. asset selling," which could buoy the dollar back to 145 yen, Mizuho analysts wrote in a note.On the other hand, traders were concerned about the prospects for the US economy given Trump's inconsistent message on trade agreements and Federal Reserve intervention. Additionally, a lack of actual progress toward opening talks with China could drag the USD lower against its rivals. Trump said late Thursday that his administration was talking with China on trade. However, Beijing said that no negotiations had been held on the economy and trade, and it urged the US to lift all unilateral tariff measures if it really wished to resolve the issue. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

08:04 GBP/USD breaks below 1.3300 as US Dollar appreciates on a potential US-China trade deal
GBP/USD is retracing its recent gains, hovering around 1.3290 during Friday’s Asian session.

08:01 Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) rose from previous -7.5% to -3.6% in March
Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) rose from previous -7.5% to -3.6% in March

08:01 Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 5.8%, below expectations (6.9%) in March
Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 5.8%, below expectations (6.9%) in March

07:57 FX option expiries for Apr 25 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 25 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Apr 25 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1200 907m1.1400 1b1.1440 1.1b1.1450 602mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 140.00 1.1b145.00 1.7b146.00 861mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6150 406m0.6300 408m0.6425 725mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3800 2.2b1.4000 2.2b1.4130 550mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8525 571m

07:39 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades around mid-$33.00s; just below multi-week top
Silver (XAG/USD) edges lower after testing the three-week top during the Asian session on Friday and currently trades around the mid-$33.00s, down 0.30% for the day. The technical setup, however, warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful depreciating move.

07:38 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,103.13 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,178.61 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 106,177.10 per tola from INR 107,057.50 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,103.13 10 Grams 91,031.05 Tola 106,177.10 Troy Ounce 283,145.60 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders refrain from placing aggressive directional bets amid mixed cues Investors remain hopeful over the potential de-escalation of the US-China trade war, which acts as a headwind for the safe-haven Gold price during the Asian session on Friday. In fact, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that trade talks between the US and China are underway. This comes after China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters that China and the US have not conducted consultations or negotiations on tariffs, and called reports of such information false news. This underscores the uncertainty over the ongoing trade war. The US Dollar draws some support from mostly upbeat US macro data released on Thursday. In fact, the US Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims increased modestly to 222,000 for the week ending 19 April and pointed to continued labor market resilience. The US Census Bureau reported that Durable Goods Orders surged 9.2% in March, beating the 2% forecast and marking a third consecutive rise. Transportation equipment also rose for a third month, surging 27%. Meanwhile, a duo of Federal Reserve officials discussed the willingness for potential interest rate cuts soon. In fact, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that a rate cut as soon as June could be possible if clear and convincing data on economic direction is obtained. Separately, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a Bloomberg interview that he would support rate cuts if tariffs start weighing on the job market. Moreover, traders are still pricing in the possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs at least three times by the end of this year. On the geopolitical front, a Russian missile attack on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv killed at least twelve people and injured dozens. This was one of the deadliest strikes since Russia launched its full-scale invasion more than three years ago and keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play. Traders now look forward to the release of the revised Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index. Apart from this, trade-related developments might influence the USD, which, along with the broader risk sentiment, might produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD pair. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:25 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rises above 162.50, nine-day EMA
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around 162.80 during the Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross consolidating within an ascending channel, reinforcing a bullish outlook.

07:08 AUD/JPY hits multi-week high, around 92.00 amid signs of easing US-China trade tensions
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buyers for the third successive day and touches over a three-week top, around the 92.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday.

06:45 Gold price consolidates in a range; bulls have the upper hand while above $3,300
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's move higher and oscillates in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Friday amid mixed fundamental cues.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price bulls seem reluctant as a positive risk tone undermines demand for safe-haven assets. Thursday’s upbeat US macro data supports the USD, contributing to capping the precious metal.Trade-related uncertainties and Fed rate cut bets should help limit losses for the XAU/USD pair. Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's move higher and oscillates in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Friday amid mixed fundamental cues. Signs of easing tensions between the US and China – the world's two largest economies – remain supportive of a positive tone around the equity markets. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick turns out to be another factor that contributes to keeping a lid on the precious metal.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials showed willingness for potential interest rate cuts, which might cap the USD upside and act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold price. Moreover, worries about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and persistent geopolitical uncertainties suggest that the path of least resistance for the safe-haven commodity remains to the upside, warranting some caution for aggressive bearish traders. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders refrain from placing aggressive directional bets amid mixed cuesInvestors remain hopeful over the potential de-escalation of the US-China trade war, which acts as a headwind for the safe-haven Gold price during the Asian session on Friday. In fact, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that trade talks between the US and China are underway.This comes after China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters that China and the US have not conducted consultations or negotiations on tariffs, and called reports of such information false news. This underscores the uncertainty over the ongoing trade war. The US Dollar draws some support from mostly upbeat US macro data released on Thursday. In fact, the US Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims increased modestly to 222,000 for the week ending 19 April and pointed to continued labor market resilience.The US Census Bureau reported that Durable Goods Orders surged 9.2% in March, beating the 2% forecast and marking a third consecutive rise. Transportation equipment also rose for a third month, surging 27%.Meanwhile, a duo of Federal Reserve officials discussed the willingness for potential interest rate cuts soon. In fact, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that a rate cut as soon as June could be possible if clear and convincing data on economic direction is obtained.Separately, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a Bloomberg interview that he would support rate cuts if tariffs start weighing on the job market. Moreover, traders are still pricing in the possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs at least three times by the end of this year. On the geopolitical front, a Russian missile attack on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv killed at least twelve people and injured dozens. This was one of the deadliest strikes since Russia launched its full-scale invasion more than three years ago and keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play.Traders now look forward to the release of the revised Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index. Apart from this, trade-related developments might influence the USD, which, along with the broader risk sentiment, might produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD pair. Gold price might attract some dip-buyers and find decent support near the $3,300 mark; bullish bias remainsFrom a technical perspective, a goodish rebound from the weekly low touched on Wednesday stalls near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest leg up from the vicinity of the mid-$2,900s or the monthly swing low. The said barrier is pegged near the $3,368-3,370 region, which should now act as a key pivotal point. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory, a sustained strength beyond should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 mark. The subsequent move up is likely to extend further towards the $3,425-3,427 intermediate hurdle, above which bulls could make a fresh attempt to conquer the $3,500 psychological mark.On the flip side, weakness below the $3,330 area might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $3,300 mark, nearing the 38.2% Fibo. level. This is followed by the weekly swing low, around the $3,260 area, which if broken should pave the way for the resumption of this week's rejection slide from the $3,500 mark, or the all-time peak. The Gold price could then accelerate the fall towards the 50% retracement level, around the $3,225 region, en route to the $3,200 mark. Some follow-through selling will suggest that precious metal has topped out and shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:36 China mulls suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports – Bloomberg
Citing sources familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported on Friday that China is mulling suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports including medical equipment, ethane and plane leasing.

06:32 WTI climbs toward $63.00, remains headed for a weekly loss amid oversupply worries
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for a second straight day, trading around $62.80 during Friday's Asian session.

06:27 USD/INR extends decline on US-India trade talks progress
The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens on Friday. The optimism surrounding US-India trade talks provides some support to the Indian currency. Currently, the 26% reciprocal tariff on India that the US imposed is on a 90-day pause. The suspension will expire on July 8.

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Escalating geopolitical tensions after the Kashmir attack might cap the pair’s upside. The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens on Friday. The optimism surrounding US-India trade talks provides some support to the Indian currency. Currently, the 26% reciprocal tariff on India that the US imposed is on a 90-day pause. The suspension will expire on July 8. However, India does face a 10% tariff as other nations per the US trade policy. Furthermore, rising Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) inflows might contribute to the INR’s upside. Nonetheless, heightened geopolitical tensions following a terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu, and Kashmir might drag the Indian currency lower. Investors will keep an eye on the final reading of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment later on Friday.Indian Rupee edges higher amid escalating tensions between India and PakistanAccording to the Reuters poll, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut the Repo Rate to 5.50% by end-Q3 (vs. 5.75% in March poll). India's economy is to grow 6.3% in 2025-26 and 6.5% in 2026-27 (vs 6.5% and 6.5% in March poll), Reuters poll. Asked how US tariffs have affected business sentiment in India, 60% of economists, 21 of 35, said the impact was negative or very negative. Meanwhile, 14 economists said it was neutral.Pakistan has announced a series of retaliatory diplomatic moves against India and demanded evidence to back up the Indian government’s claims that Islamabad was involved in the Kashmir attack.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that India is likely to become the first country to finalise a bilateral trade agreement with the US to avoid Trump's reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said late Thursday that he is worried that with the uncertainty, businesses will do layoffs.USD/INR’s bearish outlook remains in placeThe Indian Rupee trades firmer on the day. The bearish tone of the USD/INR pair prevails as the pair is below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 38.35, suggesting that further downside looks favorable. The first downside target to watch is 84.85, the lower limit of the descending trend channel. Sustained trading below this level could open the door for a move towards 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024. The next contention level is seen at 84.08, the low of November 6, 2024.On the bright side, the 100-day EMA at 85.82 acts as an immediate resistance level for USD/INR. A decisive break above the mentioned level could see a rise to 86.45, the upper boundary of the trend channel. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:47 USD/CAD holds gains above 1.3850 on optimism over potential US trade deals
USD/CAD recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.3870 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens, supported by optimism surrounding potential US trade deals.

05:20 Japanese Yen struggles to lure buyers despite strong Tokyo CPI print
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower during the Asian session on Friday as hopes for the potential de-escalation of the US-China trade standoff remain supportive of a positive risk tone and temper demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

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Dovish Fed expectations might keep a lid on any meaningful USD upside and the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower during the Asian session on Friday as hopes for the potential de-escalation of the US-China trade standoff remain supportive of a positive risk tone and temper demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick assists the USD/JPY pair to climb back above the 143.00 mark and reverse a part of the previous day's pullback from a nearly two-week high.Meanwhile, government data showed that consumer inflation in Tokyo – Japan's capital city – accelerated sharply in April and reaffirmed market bets for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In contrast, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials showed willingness for potential interest rate cuts. This, in turn, might keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD and help limit deeper losses for the lower-yielding JPY. Japanese Yen is undermined by receding safe-haven demand; BoJ rate hike bets should help limit lossesUS President Donald Trump told reporters that the US and China held discussions on Thursday to help resolve the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Moreover, a White House official said that lower-level in-person talks as well as a phone call between US and Chinese staff had taken place this week.This fuels hopes of a quick US-China trade resolution, boosts investor confidence, and weakens demand for safe-haven assets like the Yen. China, however, had claimed earlier that no discussions had taken place.The conflicting statements underscore the uncertainty around the current trade war, which might continue to infuse volatility in the global financial markets and act as a tailwind for safe-haven assets. Furthermore, the prospects for additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan should limit deeper losses for the JPY. Data released earlier this Friday showed that Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 3.5% year-on-year in April from 2.9% in the prior month. Adding to this, Tokyo core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 3.4% YoY, or a two-year high, compared to the 3.2% expected and sharply higher than the 2.4% in March.Furthermore, a gauge that excludes both fresh food and fuel costs and is closely watched by the BoJ rose 3.1% in April from a year earlier after a 2.2% rise in the previous month. This points to broadening inflation in Japan and gives the BoJ headroom to raise interest rates further after a 50 basis point rate hike earlier this year. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would support an interest rate cut if tariffs start weighing on the job market. Separately, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that a rate cut as soon as June could be possible if clear evidence of economic direction is obtained.This counters Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks last week that the US central bank is well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. Nevertheless, traders are still pricing in the possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs at least three times by the end of this year. The prospects for more aggressive easing by the Fed, to a larger extent, overshadowed mostly upbeat US macro data released on Thursday. In fact, the US Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims increased modestly to 222,000 for the week ending 19 April and pointed to continued labor market resilience.Furthermore, the US Census Bureau reported that Durable Goods Orders surged 9.2% in March, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and far exceeding market expectations of a 2% rise. Transportation equipment, which also recorded its third straight monthly gain, led the increase with a jump of 27% in April.Meanwhile, the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations, along with hopes that Japan will strike a trade deal with the US, should act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY. Japan's chief negotiator, Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, will hold a second round of trade talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent next week.USD/JPY needs to surpass the weekly high, around the 143.55 region to support prospects for further gainsThe USD/JPY pair showed some resilience below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April downfall and the subsequent move back above the 143.00 mark favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on hourly charts have been gaining positive traction and support prospects for additional gains. However, technical indicators on the daily chart – though they have been recovering – are yet to confirm a positive bias. Hence, any further move up might confront stiff resistance near the 143.55 area, or the weekly high. Some follow-through buying, however, could lift spot prices beyond the 144.00 round figure, towards the 144.40 area. The latter represents 38.2% of Fibo. level, which if cleared decisively should pave the way for some meaningful recovery in the near term.On the flip side, dips below the 23.6% Fibo. level might continue to attract some dip-buyers near the overnight swing low, around the 142.30-142.25 region. This is followed by the 142.00 round figure, below which the USD/JPY pair could slide to mid-141.00s en route to the 141.10-141.00 region. The downward trajectory could extend further towards intermediate support near the 140.50 area and expose the multi-month low – levels below the 140.00 psychological mark touched on Tuesday. Economic Indicator Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The gauge excluding food and energy is widely used to measure underlying inflation trends as these two components are more volatile. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Apr 24, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2% Consensus: - Previous: 1.1% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

05:01 NZD/USD softens below 0.6000, eyes on US-China trade tensions
The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5985 during the Asian session on Friday, pressured by the firmer Greenback. The lack of progress toward defusing the US-China trade deal exerts some selling pressure on the China-proxy Kiwi.

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China told the US to cancel all unilateral tariffs if it wants talks. China's Finance Ministry said current world economic growth momentum was insufficient due to tariff threats and trade wars. The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5985 during the Asian session on Friday, pressured by the firmer Greenback. The lack of progress toward defusing the US-China trade deal exerts some selling pressure on the China-proxy Kiwi. The final reading of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due later on Friday.US President Donald Trump said late Thursday that his administration was talking with China on trade. Meanwhile, China said that no negotiations had been held on the economy and trade, and it urged the US to lift all unilateral tariff measures if it really wished to resolve the issue. Concerns over trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies could undermine the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. The rising bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at the May meeting might contribute to the NZD’s downside. The markets fully expect the RBNZ to cut its 3.5% OCR by 25 basis points (bps) in May, with a further reduction to 2.75% by year-end.China's Finance Ministry said on Friday that the current world economic growth momentum was insufficient, with tariff and trade wars further impacting economic and financial stability. Meanwhile, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng noted that economic fragmentation and trade tensions continue to disrupt the industrial supply chain and weaken the momentum of global growth. However, any positive developments surrounding Chinese stimulus measures could help limit the Kiwi’s losses in the near term. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

04:48 Australian Dollar edges lower due to persistent US-China trade tensions
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retreating after gains in the previous session.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar remains under pressure amid ongoing US-China trade tensions, given Australia's strong economic ties with China.Market sentiment was mixed after reports suggested the Trump administration could consider reducing tariffs on Chinese imports.China’s Finance Ministry noted that global economic growth continues to face headwinds, with trade and tariff disputes.The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retreating after gains in the previous session. The drop in the AUD/USD pair is driven by persistent US-China trade tensions, as Australia's close trade relationship with China makes it particularly sensitive to developments between the two economic giants.Traders continued to track the fluid global trade landscape. Market sentiment remained mixed following reports that the Trump administration might reduce tariffs on Chinese imports, depending on the progress of potential talks with Beijing. China expressed a willingness to engage in discussions, provided the US stops issuing new threats. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the optimism, clarifying that no unilateral tariff cuts had been proposed and that formal negotiations have not yet commenced.China's Finance Ministry stated on Friday that global economic growth remains sluggish, with tariff and trade wars continuing to undermine economic and financial stability. The ministry urged all parties to enhance the international economic and financial system through stronger multilateral cooperation, per Reuters.On Thursday, Westpac forecasted that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming May 20 meeting. The RBA has adopted a data-driven approach in recent quarters, making it difficult to predict its actions beyond the next meeting with confidence.Australian Dollar struggles as US Dollar appreciates due to potential US trade agreementsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading near 99.60 at the time of writing. However, the Greenback faced headwinds following the release of the Initial Jobless Claims data on Thursday.The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that initial applications for unemployment benefits rose for the week ending April 19. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 222,000, slightly above expectations and up from the previous week’s revised figure of 216,000. Meanwhile, Continuing Jobless Claims declined by 37,000, falling to 1.841 million for the week ending April 12.The flash S&P Global Composite PMI for April dropped to 51.2 from 53.5, indicating a slowdown in overall business activity. Although the Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.7, the Services PMI declined sharply to 51.4 from 54.4, pointing to softening demand in the services sector.S&P Global’s Chris Williamson commented that growth momentum is losing steam, while persistent inflationary pressures continue to complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to strike a balance.According to the Fed’s April Beige Book, concerns over tariffs have worsened the economic outlook across several regions in the United States (US). Consumer spending presented a mixed picture, while the labor market showed signs of softening, with many districts reporting flat or slightly declining employment levels.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged on Wednesday that current tariffs—145% on Chinese goods and 125% on US goods—are unsustainable and must be lowered for meaningful dialogue to begin.National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, President Trump's chief economic adviser, stated that the US Trade Representative (USTR) has 14 meetings scheduled with foreign trade ministers. Hassett also noted that 18 written proposals have been received from these ministers. According to Hassett, China remains open to negotiations.Market sentiment was boosted by US President Donald Trump, who reassured investors that he has no intention of removing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, helping ease concerns about central bank independence and policy direction.The White House announced on Tuesday that the Trump administration is making headway in negotiating trade deals aimed at easing the broad tariffs introduced earlier this month. According to US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, 18 countries have already submitted trade proposals to the US, and President Trump’s trade team is scheduled to meet with representatives from 34 nations this week to explore potential agreements.The Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI edged down to a two-month low of 51.7 in April, compared to 52.1 in March. While manufacturing output remained in expansion territory, the increase in new orders was modest. Meanwhile, the Services PMI dipped slightly to 51.4 from 51.6 in the previous month, and the Composite PMI also eased to 51.4 from 51.6.Australian Dollar finds resistance near four-month highs, 0.6450 levelThe AUD/USD pair is hovering around 0.6410 on Friday, with daily chart technicals maintaining a bullish bias. The pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds steady above the 50 mark, indicating continued upward momentum.To the upside, immediate resistance is located at the recent four-month high of 0.6439, set on April 22. A clear break above this level could open the door for a rally toward the five-month high of 0.6515.The initial support lies at the nine-day EMA, currently at 0.6365, with stronger support near the 50-day EMA at 0.6302. A sustained move below these levels would weaken the bullish outlook and may trigger deeper losses, potentially exposing the March 2025 low near 0.5914.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.38% 0.28% 0.26% 0.08% 0.17% 0.21% 0.51% EUR -0.38% -0.10% -0.08% -0.31% -0.22% -0.15% 0.12% GBP -0.28% 0.10% 0.02% -0.21% -0.10% -0.06% 0.20% JPY -0.26% 0.08% -0.02% -0.20% -0.13% -0.10% 0.19% CAD -0.08% 0.31% 0.21% 0.20% -0.00% 0.14% 0.39% AUD -0.17% 0.22% 0.10% 0.13% 0.00% 0.05% 0.32% NZD -0.21% 0.15% 0.06% 0.10% -0.14% -0.05% 0.25% CHF -0.51% -0.12% -0.20% -0.19% -0.39% -0.32% -0.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:29 PBOC Governor: All parties express concern about negative impact of trade frictions
People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng said on Friday that all parties expressed concern about the negative impact of trade frictions. Pan added that economic fragmentation and trade tensions continue to disrupt the industrial supply chain and weaken the momentum of global growth.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2066 vs. 7.2098 previous
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2066 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2098.

03:53 GBP/USD weakens to near 1.3300 ahead of UK Retail Sales release
The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.3310 during the early Asian session on Friday, pressured by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. The UK Retail Sales data for March will be the highlight later on Friday.

03:17 China's Finance Ministry: Current world economic growth momentum is insufficient
China's Finance Ministry said on Friday that the current world economic growth momentum was insufficient, with tariff and trade wars further impacting economic and financial stability, per Reuters.

02:43 EUR/USD edges lower below 1.1400 amid trade uncertainty
The EUR/USD pair weakens to near 1.1380 during the early Asian session on Friday. However, the downside for the major pair might be limited as investors remain concerned about the US-China trade tensions. Later on Friday, the final reading of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released.

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Traders have become increasingly confident that the ECB will cut interest rates in the June meeting. The EUR/USD pair weakens to near 1.1380 during the early Asian session on Friday. However, the downside for the major pair might be limited as investors remain concerned about the US-China trade tensions. Later on Friday, the final reading of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released. US President Donald Trump said late Thursday that his administration was talking with China on trade. Meanwhile, China said that no negotiations had been held on the economy and trade, and it urged the US to lift all unilateral tariff measures if it really wished to resolve the issue. Persistent concerns over potential tariff threats by Trump and persistent trade tensions are likely to weigh on the Greenback and act as a tailwind for EUR/USD in the near term."It seems like there's a gulf as wide as the Pacific Ocean between how the U.S. and China are viewing trade," said Matt Weller, head of market research at StoneX. "And I think as long as that gulf remains, the rallies in the dollar might be short-lived.”Across the pond, traders raise their bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in the June policy meeting due to the dovish remarks from the ECB policymakers. This, in turn, undermines the shared currency against the USD. ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn said on Thursday that the central bank should not rule out a "larger interest rate cut". Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said on Wednesday that the central bank may have to lower interest rates to levels that stimulate the economy if trade uncertainty proves more damaging to growth. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:35 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) climbed from previous 1.1% to 2% in April
Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) climbed from previous 1.1% to 2% in April

02:34 Japan's Tokyo CPI inflation rises to 3.5% YoY in April
The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April climbed 3.5% YoY as compared to 2.9% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.

The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April climbed 3.5% YoY as compared to 2.9% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.Additionally, Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food rose 3.4% YoY in April against 3.2% expected and up from 2.4% in the prior month.

02:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 2.9% to 3.5% in April
Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 2.9% to 3.5% in April

02:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 3.4%, above forecasts (3.2%) in April
Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 3.4%, above forecasts (3.2%) in April

02:01 United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -23, below expectations (-21) in April
United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -23, below expectations (-21) in April

01:37 Fed’s Kashkari: Worried uncertainty may cause layoffs
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said late Thursday that he is worried that with the uncertainty, businesses will do layoffs.

01:30 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds ground near weekly highs
Silver finished Thursday's session virtually unchanged, yet it remains near weekly highs of $33.65, with traders poised to push the grey metal higher.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver steady on Thursday, supported by weaker US Dollar and lower bond yields.Traders eye upside amid lingering uncertainty over full US-China tariff rollback.Fed officials remain cautious, signal data-dependent path amid rising economic ambiguity.Silver finished Thursday's session virtually unchanged, yet it remains near weekly highs of $33.65, with traders poised to push the grey metal higher.XAG/USD clings to $33.65 as Fed uncertainty and falling Treasury yields bolster precious metals despite tariff relief hopesAn improvement in risk appetite was sponsored by a de-escalation of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on China, which weighed on silver prices. However, China’s Commerce Ministry Spokesman urged the US to lift all duties on Chinese imports “if it really wants to solve the problem.”Precious metals remain underpinned by the fall of US Treasury yields. This consequently weakened the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), dropped 0.50% down to 99.28.US economic data showed the labor market remains solid following the release of the latest Initial Jobless Claims figures, which came in aligned with estimates. US Durable Goods Orders smashed forecasts of 2% in March and grew 9.2% Month over Month due to a jump in transportation orders.A myriad of Fed speakers led by Governor Waller grabbed the headlines. Waller said that it is unlikely to know the impact of tariffs in July, adding that the second half of 2025 will bring more clarity. Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack said that uncertainty is weighing on businesses, and if data warrants it, the Fed’s next move could be in June.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookAmid this backdrop, Silver could remain trading near the week’s high but buyers need to clear key resistance levels. the first ceiling would be $34.00, followed by the current year-to-date (YTD) high of $34.58. Once those two levels are taken out, traders could target the $35.00 mark.Conversely, if XAG/USD falls below $33.00, sellers will be tempted to test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.63. Once cleared, the next support would be $32.00. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

01:25 BoJ’s Ueda: Uncertainty regarding global economy rising, must scrutinize impact on business
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the Japanese central bank will continue to raise interest rates if underlying inflation converges toward its 2% inflation target as projected.

01:00 EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Euro steadies near 162.00 as technical outlook remains mixed
The EURJPY pair was seen trading near the 162.00 area on Thursday, holding steady ahead of the Asian session after a mildly choppy European trading day.

EURJPY trades near the 162.00 zone, stabilizing ahead of the Asian session.Mixed signals dominate, with short-term momentum soft and broader trend still supportive.Resistance lies near 162.30 and 162.50; support seen around 161.70 and 161.20.The EURJPY pair was seen trading near the 162.00 area on Thursday, holding steady ahead of the Asian session after a mildly choppy European trading day. The pair remains confined within a relatively narrow daily range, suggesting investors are awaiting a fresh catalyst before pushing in either direction.From a technical perspective, the setup remains mixed. The Relative Strength Index is sitting in neutral territory, while the MACD prints a weak sell signal. The Stochastic RSI and Average Directional Index also remain muted, reflecting limited short-term momentum and trend strength.However, longer-term moving averages continue to support the bullish structure. The 100-day and 200-day SMAs are still pointing upward, although the 20-day SMA is beginning to flatten, hinting at potential consolidation. The Ichimoku Base Line sits just under current price levels, offering a tentative support zone.Immediate support is seen at 161.70, followed by 161.20. On the upside, resistance levels are found at 162.30, 162.50, and then 162.85.Overall, while EURJPY is trading close to the upper end of its recent range, the pair needs a decisive push backed by momentum to validate further upside. Until then, traders may continue to see range-bound action.

00:13 NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Modest recovery holds as bulls eye resistance ahead of Asian session
The NZDJPY pair was seen trading near the 90.50 area on Thursday, stabilizing after mild intraday gains. The pair is attempting to consolidate above key short-term levels, as investors weigh broad risk sentiment and upcoming Asian market flows.

NZDJPY trades near the 90.50 zone following a modest bounce in Thursday’s session.Bullish momentum remains fragile as indicators deliver mixed short-term signals.
The NZDJPY pair was seen trading near the 90.50 area on Thursday, stabilizing after mild intraday gains. The pair is attempting to consolidate above key short-term levels, as investors weigh broad risk sentiment and upcoming Asian market flows. Price action remains within the day's range, hinting at indecision despite the mild upside.From a technical standpoint, the pair is showing a cautiously bullish signal. While the Relative Strength Index is hovering in neutral territory, the MACD shows early signs of positive momentum. Other indicators, such as the Stochastic oscillator and Commodity Channel Index, remain neutral, underlining the pair’s lack of strong directional conviction.However, short-term moving averages are beginning to turn favorable. The 10-day EMA and SMA are showing early signs of a shift, while the longer-term 20, 100, and 200-day SMAs remain tilted lower, reflecting the broader bearish structure. If momentum builds, a test of the resistance cluster near the 90.70–90.90 area may be on the cards.Key support levels rest at 90.10, followed by 89.80. To the upside, resistance is located at 90.70, 90.90, and further out at 91.20.

00:07 Mexican Peso holds firm as inflation rises and US Dollar slides
The Mexican Peso registered modest gains versus the US Dollar on Thursday due to the latter’s broad weakness, even though Mexico’s inflation came in slightly higher than expected. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.57 after hitting a daily high of 19.63.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Mexican Peso appreciates as USD/MXN dips to 19.57, market prices in another 50 bps Banxico cut.Mexican inflation beats estimates but stays within Banxico’s target range.Citi survey shows most economists expect a 50 bps rate cut on May 15.Trump’s selective tariffs raise trade risks but spare Mexico—for now.The Mexican Peso registered modest gains versus the US Dollar on Thursday due to the latter’s broad weakness, even though Mexico’s inflation came in slightly higher than expected. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.57 after hitting a daily high of 19.63.Mexico’s annual inflation exceeded estimates in April, yet prices remained within Banco de Mexico’s (Banxico) 2% to 4% inflation range goal. Although prices ticked up, Banxico is projected to continue cutting rates by 50 basis points (bps) at the May meeting, which would be its third reduction of that size, following four straight 25 bps cuts since mid-2024.In its latest Expectations Survey, Citi Mexico revealed that 36 economists polled expect the central bank will cut rates on May 15.US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexico's auto, steel and aluminum exports could further damage the country’s manufacturing base. However, some exporters were relieved that Trump had applied duties to most US trading partners but had kept Mexico off the list.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has said she wants to reach an agreement with Trump, but did not strike a deal in a phone call with him last week.Ahead in Mexico’s economic docket, traders brace for the release of Economic Activity data.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso unfazed by Banxico’s dovish stanceThe central bank divergence between Banxico and the Fed favors further upside in USD/MXN. Banxico’s Governing Council expressed its decision to continue easing the policy. Conversely, the Fed is considered cautious, as some officials have shown concerns about a reacceleration of inflation spurred by tariffs.Mexico’s Mid-month inflation in April accelerated by 3.96%YoY, above estimates of 3.78%. Core prices jumped from 3.56% to 3.90% YoY. Both figures remained within Banxico’s 3% goal plus or minus 1% range.Retail Sales in February were lower than expected, showcasing the ongoing economic slowdown, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica.Citi Mexico's expectations survey shows that economists expect Banxico to cut its rate by 50 basis points at the May meeting. For the full year, they project the main reference rate to end near 7.75%.Regarding the USD/MXN exchange rate, private analysts see the exotic pair finishing at 20.93, up from 20.90. Inflation in 2025 is projected to finish at 3.78% with core figures at 3.80% mostly aligned with the previous poll.Mexico’s economy is expected to grow 0.2% in 2025, below the 0.3% projected in the prior survey.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso remains bullish as USD/MXN stays below the 200-day SMAThe USD/MXN downtrend remains intact, but it seems that sellers are taking a breather. They failed to drag the exchange rate below April 23’s low of 19.46. A daily close below 19.50 could expose the current year-to-date (YTD) low, followed by the 19.00 psychological figure.If buyers want to push prices higher, they must reclaim the 200-day SMA at 19.92, followed by the 20.00 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the confluence of the April 14 high and the 50-day SMA near 20.25-20.29 before testing the 100-day SMA at 20.33. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

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ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

20:05 USD/CAD holds firm as mixed trade headlines cloud USD outlook The USD/CAD pair holds steady around the 1.3900 zone on Friday as markets weigh fresh US-China trade headlines and stronger oil prices against a firmer Greenback.

20:02 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count rose from previous 481 to 483 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count rose from previous 481 to 483

18:16 GBP/USD slips despite strong UK Retail Sales as USD dominance prevails The Pound Sterling registers losses against the strong US Dollar, yet it remains above 1.3300. A strong UK Retail Sales report failed to underpin Cable, which registers losses of 0.20% as the GBP/USD trades at 1.3311.

17:53 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD plummets to near $33.00 on US-China trade talks Silver price (XAG/USD) plunges more than 1.5% to near $33.00 during North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal falls sharply from its three-week high of $33.70 posted earlier in the day.

17:46 BoE's Greene: We should see some trade diversion coming from China Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene said on Friday that they are not sure if the weakness in the UK economy is caused by demand or supply, per Reuters.

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index registered at 47.3 above expectations (47.2) in April United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index registered at 47.3 above expectations (47.2) in April

17:00 United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations registered at 6.5, below expectations (6.7) in April United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations registered at 6.5, below expectations (6.7) in April

17:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (4.4%) in April United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (4.4%) in April

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 52.2 above expectations (50.8) in April United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 52.2 above expectations (50.8) in April

16:16 Lagarde speech: Not pre-committing to a particular rate path European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that the disinflation process in the Eurozone is well on track, per Reuters.

15:39 Chinese Embassy: US and China are not having any negotiations on tariffs The United States and China are not engaged in any talks on tariffs, the Chinese embassy said on Friday, according to Reuters.

15:35 Temporary setback for Gold? – Commerzbank After US President Trump backtracked significantly on both tariffs against China and the dismissal of Fed Chair Powell, the price of Gold temporarily fell back below $3,300 per troy ounce, Commerzbank's FX analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

15:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (-0.4%) in February Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (-0.4%) in February

15:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.4%) in February Canada Retail Sales (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.4%) in February

15:29 JPY soft in context of trade headline-driven market – Scotiabank Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.7% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:17 EUR weak within range near high – Scotiabank Euro (EUR) is weak, down 0.4% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10. Trade-related headlines continue to dominate and data releases have been limited, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:02 Brazil Mid-month Inflation meets expectations (0.43%) in April Brazil Mid-month Inflation meets expectations (0.43%) in April

14:53 CAD eases modestly – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is marginally softer on the session but holding up better than its major currency peers to the USD’s broader rebound, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:40 WTI tumbles to near $62.00 on OPEC’s supply increase, potential demand concerns West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, is down over 1% to near $62.00 during European trading hours on Friday.

14:36 US Dollar steady with China-US relations clouds The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades slightly higher and turns positive for the week on Friday.

14:34 USD steadies, challenges remain – Scotiabank Markets are ending the week on a steadier note. The USD is a little stronger, US equity futures slipping back after yesterday’s pop higher and US Treasurys are a little firmer.

14:31 India FX Reserves, USD increased to $686.15B in April 14 from previous $677.84B India FX Reserves, USD increased to $686.15B in April 14 from previous $677.84B

13:30 Russia Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (21%) Russia Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (21%)

13:27 CNY: Waiting for the PMIs – Commerzbank Next week, China will release its official PMIs, which, unlike in other countries, are always released on the last day of the month rather than the first day of the following month.

13:26 AUD/USD slumps to near 0.6380 as US Dollar bounces back The AUD/USD pair falls sharply to near 0.6380 in Friday’s North American session. The Aussie pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) resumes its upside recovery after a corrective move on Thursday.

13:19 JPY: One-off effect lifts inflation – Commerzbank The inflation rate for the Tokyo area rose to 3.5% in April, once again exceeding the expectations of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Rice prices rose sharply again in April, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

13:07 RUB: CBR likely to signal rate cuts before end of year – Commerzbank Russia’s central bank (CBR) will announce its rate decision today: analysts unanimously expect an unchanged key rate of 21.0%, which has been pre-signalled by policymakers.

12:45 DXY: Technical rebound is under way – OCBC Relative calm continues to be observed this week amid Trump’s de-escalation. Trump continued to speak about how his administration was talking to China about trade even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations.

12:32 USD/JPY dodges the currency accord bullet – ING On the subject of trade talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's discussions with Japan and South Korea seem to be going well, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

12:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

12:25 EUR: 1.1250 is the risk for EUR/USD – ING The very modest dollar bounce has seen EUR/USD trade a little lower.

12:23 EUR/USD: Corrective pullback underway – OCBC Euro (EUR) continued to ease lower after hitting a more than 3Y high of 1.1570s. EUR was last at 1.1350 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:20 USD: Some modest retracement – ING The dollar is continuing its positive correlation with US equity markets and is edging higher. Investors seem to be taking positively the newsflow that US-China tariffs could be negotiated substantially lower.

11:56 Gold edges down amid clash over status of US-China trade talks Gold price (XAU/USD) is on the back foot on Friday, almost erasing all of Thursday’s gains, and looks set to close off this week in the red.

11:55 USD/CAD sits near weekly top, just below 1.3900 ahead of Canadian Retail sales The USD/CAD pair retains its positive bias through the first half of the European session on Friday and currently trades near the top end of the weekly range.

11:14 SNB's Schlegel: Economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel warned on Friday that an “economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out.”

10:31 ECB’s Holzmann: Next policy steps are completely open European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann said on Friday that “next policy steps are completely open.”

10:29 Pound Sterling attracts bids on upbeat UK Retail Sales data The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back against its major peers on Friday after the release of surprisingly positive United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for March.

10:25 Chinese Foreign Ministry: China and US are not having any negotiations on tariffs Commenting on the trade talks with the United States (US), China's Foreign Ministry clarified that “China and the US are not having any consultations or negotiations on tariffs.”

09:55 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds losses below 0.6000, support appears at nine-day EMA The NZD/USD pair offers its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5960 during early European trading hours on Friday.

09:52 Forex Today: US Dollar regains traction on renewed optimism about easing US-China tensions Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 25:

09:46 France Business Climate in Manufacturing came in at 99, above expectations (96) in April France Business Climate in Manufacturing came in at 99, above expectations (96) in April

09:45 EUR/GBP holds below 0.8550 on upbeat UK Retail Sales data The EUR/GBP cross loses momentum to near 0.8530 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) after the stronger-than-expected UK economic data.

09:36 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data.

09:08 USD/CHF maintains position above 0.8300 due to US-China trade optimism USD/CHF recovered its previous session losses and is trading around 0.8320 during the Asian session on Friday.

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) above expectations (-0.3%) in March: Actual (0.5%) United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) above expectations (-0.3%) in March: Actual (0.5%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (2.3%) in March United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (2.3%) in March

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.8%) in March: Actual (2.6%) United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.8%) in March: Actual (2.6%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (-0.4%) in March United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (-0.4%) in March

08:56 China’s Politburo: Will cut the RRR and interest rates in a timely manner China held the Politburo meeting on Friday, with the key takeaways noted below.

08:04 GBP/USD breaks below 1.3300 as US Dollar appreciates on a potential US-China trade deal GBP/USD is retracing its recent gains, hovering around 1.3290 during Friday’s Asian session.

08:01 Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) rose from previous -7.5% to -3.6% in March Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) rose from previous -7.5% to -3.6% in March

08:01 Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 5.8%, below expectations (6.9%) in March Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 5.8%, below expectations (6.9%) in March

07:57 FX option expiries for Apr 25 NY cut FX option expiries for Apr 25 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

07:38 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:08 AUD/JPY hits multi-week high, around 92.00 amid signs of easing US-China trade tensions The AUD/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buyers for the third successive day and touches over a three-week top, around the 92.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday.

06:45 Gold price consolidates in a range; bulls have the upper hand while above $3,300 Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's move higher and oscillates in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Friday amid mixed fundamental cues.

06:36 China mulls suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports – Bloomberg Citing sources familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported on Friday that China is mulling suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports including medical equipment, ethane and plane leasing.

06:32 WTI climbs toward $63.00, remains headed for a weekly loss amid oversupply worries West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for a second straight day, trading around $62.80 during Friday's Asian session.

05:01 NZD/USD softens below 0.6000, eyes on US-China trade tensions The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5985 during the Asian session on Friday, pressured by the firmer Greenback. The lack of progress toward defusing the US-China trade deal exerts some selling pressure on the China-proxy Kiwi.

04:48 Australian Dollar edges lower due to persistent US-China trade tensions The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retreating after gains in the previous session.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2066 vs. 7.2098 previous On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2066 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2098.

03:53 GBP/USD weakens to near 1.3300 ahead of UK Retail Sales release The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.3310 during the early Asian session on Friday, pressured by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. The UK Retail Sales data for March will be the highlight later on Friday.

03:17 China's Finance Ministry: Current world economic growth momentum is insufficient China's Finance Ministry said on Friday that the current world economic growth momentum was insufficient, with tariff and trade wars further impacting economic and financial stability, per Reuters.

02:35 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) climbed from previous 1.1% to 2% in April Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) climbed from previous 1.1% to 2% in April

02:34 Japan's Tokyo CPI inflation rises to 3.5% YoY in April The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April climbed 3.5% YoY as compared to 2.9% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.

02:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 2.9% to 3.5% in April Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 2.9% to 3.5% in April

02:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 3.4%, above forecasts (3.2%) in April Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 3.4%, above forecasts (3.2%) in April

02:01 United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -23, below expectations (-21) in April United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -23, below expectations (-21) in April

01:37 Fed’s Kashkari: Worried uncertainty may cause layoffs Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said late Thursday that he is worried that with the uncertainty, businesses will do layoffs.

01:30 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds ground near weekly highs Silver finished Thursday's session virtually unchanged, yet it remains near weekly highs of $33.65, with traders poised to push the grey metal higher.

01:25 BoJ’s Ueda: Uncertainty regarding global economy rising, must scrutinize impact on business Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the Japanese central bank will continue to raise interest rates if underlying inflation converges toward its 2% inflation target as projected.

01:00 EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Euro steadies near 162.00 as technical outlook remains mixed The EURJPY pair was seen trading near the 162.00 area on Thursday, holding steady ahead of the Asian session after a mildly choppy European trading day.

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