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08:41 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Keep bullish vibe above 97.00
The AUD/JPY cross loses ground to near 97.15 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order last week to lower the Japanese auto import tariff.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY declines to around 97.15 in Tuesday’s early European session.The positive outlook of the cross prevails above the 100-day EMA, with bullish momentum in the near term.The first upside target is seen at 97.45; the initial support level is located at 96.31.The AUD/JPY cross loses ground to near 97.15 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order last week to lower the Japanese auto import tariff. Nonetheless, Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation over the weekend, raising concerns over political uncertainty in Japan. This could weigh on the JPY in the near term.Technically, the constructive outlook of the cross remains in play, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Additionally, the upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 62.80. This indicates bullish momentum in the near term.The immediate resistance level for AUD/JPY emerges at 97.45, the high of September 8. A run of green candles and steady trading above the mentioned level could open the door for a move toward 98.45, the high of January 27. The next hurdle is seen at 99.00, a round mark. On the flip side, if the cross draws in sellers and more red candlesticks show up, the price could head right back to 96.31, the low of September 5. Sustained trading below this level could expose 95.35, the 100-day EMA. The next contention level is located at 94.82, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. AUD/JPY Daily Chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
08:37 EUR/JPY corrects to near 173.20, while both currencies face political crisis
The EUR/JPY pair trades 0.17% lower to near 173.20 during the late Asian trading session on Tuesday.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY retraces to near 173.20 as the Japanese Yen strives to gain ground.French PM Bayrou loses confidence vote in Parliament.Investors expect the ECB to hold interest rates steady on Thursday.The EUR/JPY pair trades 0.17% lower to near 173.20 during the late Asian trading session on Tuesday. The pair faces selling pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) bounces back against its peers, while the political crisis in Japan continues to prevail following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba from his position of President in ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.07% -0.19% -0.32% -0.02% -0.33% -0.21% -0.13% EUR 0.07% -0.12% -0.26% 0.05% -0.19% -0.11% -0.06% GBP 0.19% 0.12% -0.16% 0.17% -0.07% 0.00% 0.06% JPY 0.32% 0.26% 0.16% 0.30% 0.04% 0.13% 0.20% CAD 0.02% -0.05% -0.17% -0.30% -0.28% -0.17% -0.11% AUD 0.33% 0.19% 0.07% -0.04% 0.28% 0.08% 0.13% NZD 0.21% 0.11% -0.00% -0.13% 0.17% -0.08% 0.08% CHF 0.13% 0.06% -0.06% -0.20% 0.11% -0.13% -0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
According to a report from NHK, Japan's PM Ishiba chose to step down to prevent a split within the party. Ishiba also stated that he will organize a leadership contest to choose his successor.The political crisis in Japan comes at a time when the economy is facing trade war risk, and commentaries from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials have indicated that they would struggle in hiking interest rates further.In the Eurozone, the loss of French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou in the confidence vote after failing to gain enough support to pass the budget in Parliament has weighed on the Euro (EUR). Market experts believe that the downfall of the government for attempting to narrow the ballooning fiscal deficit will attract further credit-rating downgrades, a move that will increase borrowing costs for the administration.This week, the major trigger for the Euro will be the announcement of the interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. Economists expect the ECB to hold the Deposit Facility Rate steady at 2% for the second time in a row. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
08:26 USD/INR declines as US Dollar refreshes six-week low
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a positive note against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair slides to near 88.10 as the US Dollar extends its downside, following dismal United States (US) official job data for August.
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The USD/INR pair slides to near 88.10 as the US Dollar extends its downside, following dismal United States (US) official job data for August.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh over six-week low around 97.30.The US Dollar is facing selling pressure as soft US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data has almost locked in an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the policy meeting next week. The NFP report showed on Friday that the economy added 22K fresh workers, the worst reading seen since January 2021.According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see an 11.6% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00%, while the rest point a standard 25-bps interest rate reduction.In Tuesday’s session, investors will pay close attention to the NFP benchmark revision report for employment data through March 2025. The report will show preliminary revision for payrolls added in the 12-month period through March 2025, before the final benchmark revision is reported within the employment report of February 2026.The impact of the employment revision report will be significant on market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. In 2024, the Fed delivered a 50-bps interest rate cut in September after the payrolls revision report showed that the economy created 818K fewer jobs than had been anticipated earlier.Daily digest market movers: US-India trade tensions continue to weigh on Indian RupeeThe Indian Rupee trades higher against the US Dollar on Tuesday. However, the outlook of the Indian Rupee remains uncertain due to the continuous outflow of overseas funds from the Indian stock market in the wake of trade tensions between India and the United States (US).The data showed on September 8 that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities worth Rs. 2,169.35 crores. In six trading days of September, FIIs have remained sellers in the cash market and have pared stake worth Rs. 7,836.25 crores cumulatively.Meanwhile, the announcement of the rationalization of Goods and Services Tax (GST) structure by the Indian government to boost domestic consumption appears to be failing to offset the impact of US-India trade tensions.A report from ING has signaled a warning that the direct impact of US President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs might look moderate on paper, as Indian exports to the US in FY2025 represented less than 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but its second-round impact would be significant on employment and consumption.This week, investors will focus on the US and India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, which will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Inflationary pressures in both nations are expected to have grown at a faster pace.Technical Analysis: USD/INR continues to hold 88.00The USD/INR pair trades lower to near 88.10 in the opening session on Tuesday. However, the near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near 87.82.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above that level.Looking down, the 20-day will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the round figure of 89.00 would be the key hurdle for the pair. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
08:11 EUR/GBP holds losses near 0.8650 as BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales accelerate in August
EUR/GBP edges lower after two days of gains, trading around 0.8670 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross depreciates as the Pound sterling (GBP) receives support after the release of British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales, which rose 2.9% year-on-year in August.
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If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
07:53 USD/CAD holds steady above 1.3800, lacks bullish conviction amid a weaker USD
The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through amid mixed fundamental cues. Spot prices, however, manage to hold comfortably above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and stick to modest gains above the 1.3800 round figure.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CAD edges higher during the Asian session on Tuesday, though the upside seems limited.BoC rate cut bets continue to undermine the CAD and offer some support to the currency pair.More dovish Fed expectations weigh on the USD and cap spot prices amid an uptick in Oil prices.The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through amid mixed fundamental cues. Spot prices, however, manage to hold comfortably above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and stick to modest gains above the 1.3800 round figure.The weak Canadian employment data released on Friday lifted market bets in favor of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on September 17th. This, in turn, is seen weighing on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and turning out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. That said, a modest recovery in Crude Oil prices limits the downside for the commodity-linked Loonie.The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, has declined to a fresh low since July 28 amid expectations for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, traders started pricing in he possibility of a jumbo rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting next week following the disappointing release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This continues to undermine the USD and caps the USD/CAD pair.Apart from this, the upbeat market mood is seen as another factor denting the Greenback's relative safe-haven status. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful appreciating move for the USD/CAD pair. Traders also seem reluctant and might opt to wait for the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. US Dollar Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.54% -0.21% -0.04% 0.39% -0.82% -0.81% -1.02% EUR 0.54% 0.32% 0.50% 0.93% -0.25% -0.27% -0.49% GBP 0.21% -0.32% 0.18% 0.61% -0.59% -0.59% -0.81% JPY 0.04% -0.50% -0.18% 0.42% -0.80% -0.76% -0.95% CAD -0.39% -0.93% -0.61% -0.42% -1.23% -1.16% -1.41% AUD 0.82% 0.25% 0.59% 0.80% 1.23% -0.01% -0.23% NZD 0.81% 0.27% 0.59% 0.76% 1.16% 0.00% -0.22% CHF 1.02% 0.49% 0.81% 0.95% 1.41% 0.23% 0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
07:49 GBP/USD strengthens above 1.3550, investors await NFP Benchmark Revision release
The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3560, the highest since August 15, during the early European session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as weaker US jobs data shore up the case for deeper Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 10,336.95 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 10,291.12 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 120,568.00 per tola from INR 120,033.60 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 10,336.95 10 Grams 103,369.30 Tola 120,568.00 Troy Ounce 321,515.20
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold continues to be backed by Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven flows
Soft US labor data released on Friday reaffirmed bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week and lifts the non-yielding Gold price to a fresh record high for the third consecutive day on Tuesday. In fact, traders are now pricing in a small possibility of a jumbo rate cut at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and expect the Fed to lower borrowing costs three times by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has shown his discontent towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being too late to act on borrowing costs. Moreover, Trump's calls to dismiss Fed governors fueled concerns about the central bank's independence. This keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level since July 28, which is seen as another factor that contributes to the XAU/USD pair's uptrend.
France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a vote of confidence in the National Assembly, resulting in his resignation. This comes on top of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's announcement over the weekend that he will step down as President of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Apart from this, persistent geopolitical tensions further seem to underpin the safe-haven precious metal.
In fact, Trump said that he was prepared to apply new sanctions on Russia, following the latter's largest-ever rocket and drone attack on Ukraine over the weekend. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reacted to the attack by saying that he is counting on a strong US response. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the commodity.
The market focus now shifts to the release of the latest US inflation figures, which will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics during the latter part of the week and provide some meaningful impetus to the bullion. The fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair is to the upside, though overbought conditions warrant some caution. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:30 Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) down to 2.8% in August from previous 2.9%
Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) down to 2.8% in August from previous 2.9%
07:30 Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume: 1.3% (July) vs 0.7%
Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume: 1.3% (July) vs 0.7%
07:21 Asian stocks show mixed performance with Nikkei 225 retreating from record highs
Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, mirroring Wall Street’s overnight strength.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Asian stocks gained after Wall Street’s overnight rally on rising Fed rate cut expectations.The CME FedWatch tool shows markets pricing in 10% odds of a larger 50-basis-point move in September.Japanese equities climbed to new record highs following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, mirroring Wall Street’s overnight strength. This strength is attributed to rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates in September after last week’s weaker-than-expected August jobs data, with markets increasingly betting on the possibility of a larger 50-basis-point move. The Asian markets ticked higher despite global political turmoil, keeping currency and bond investors on edge.At the time of writing, Japan’s Nikkei 225 pulls back from all-time highs, trading near 43,700, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng holds ground above 25,800, trimming daily gains after reaching highs since October 2021; South Korea’s KOSPI advances 1.07% above 3,250, its highest level in more than five weeks. However, China’s Shanghai Composite declines 0.30% to near 3,800, while the Shenzhen Component depreciates 0.89% to 12,500.Traders see a 25-basis-point cut this month as all but certain, with attention now turning to whether the Federal Reserve might opt for a larger 50-basis-point move. The CME FedWatch tool shows markets pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut at the September meeting, up from 86% a week earlier, alongside a 10% probability of a 50-point reduction.Traders will likely watch the US Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision due later in the day. Focus will shift toward US inflation reports that could shape the interest rate outlook. The August US Producer Price Index (PPI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.Japanese equities rose to fresh records after the resignation of the country's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Ishiba announced Sunday that he would resign amid growing divisions within the ruling party and sustained pressure following his defeat in last year’s national election. In a separate development, Japan’s tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said in an X post on Tuesday that US tariffs on Japanese goods, including cars and auto parts, will be reduced by September 16.Hong Kong stocks advanced, led by a roughly 2% jump in property shares after Shenzhen eased home-buying curbs last week. Tech, financial, and consumer stocks also gained, supported by a third consecutive rise in mainland markets as Beijing moves toward a record trade surplus.South Korean markets found support after Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol signaled Monday that the government may reconsider its earlier proposal on capital gains taxation for large shareholders. The initial plan aimed to lower the taxable equity holding threshold from KRW 5 billion ($3.61 million) to KRW 1 billion. AsianStocks FAQs Which are the main stock market indices in Asia? Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices. What are the main sectors represented in Asian stock markets? Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce. What factors drive Asian stock markets? Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities. What are the risks of investing in Asia stock markets? Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
07:08 Gold hits record highs for third straight day as Fed rate cut bets weigh on USD
Gold (XAU/USD) prolongs its recent record-setting run for the third straight day and climbs beyond the $3,650 level during the Asian session on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold continues to scale new record highs for the third consecutive day on Tuesday.Fed rate cut bets keep the USD depressed and benefit the non-yielding commodity.Extremely overbought conditions warrant caution before placing fresh bullish bets.Gold (XAU/USD) prolongs its recent record-setting run for the third straight day and climbs beyond the $3,650 level during the Asian session on Tuesday. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday pointed to signs of a weakening labor market and reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs at its upcoming policy meeting next week. Furthermore, traders are now pricing the possibility of three rate cuts by the end of this year. The outlook drags the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since July 28 and continues to drive flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.Moreover, political turmoil in Japan and France turns out to be another factor that benefits the safe-haven Gold. The ongoing positive momentum, meanwhile, seems rather unaffected by the upbeat market mood, which tends to undermine demand for the precious metal. That said, extremely overbought conditions might hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing fresh bets and cap any further gains. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited. The market attention now shifts to the release of the latest US inflation figures – the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold continues to be backed by Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven flowsSoft US labor data released on Friday reaffirmed bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week and lifts the non-yielding Gold price to a fresh record high for the third consecutive day on Tuesday. In fact, traders are now pricing in a small possibility of a jumbo rate cut at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and expect the Fed to lower borrowing costs three times by the end of this year.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has shown his discontent towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being too late to act on borrowing costs. Moreover, Trump's calls to dismiss Fed governors fueled concerns about the central bank's independence. This keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level since July 28, which is seen as another factor that contributes to the XAU/USD pair's uptrend.France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a vote of confidence in the National Assembly, resulting in his resignation. This comes on top of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's announcement over the weekend that he will step down as President of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Apart from this, persistent geopolitical tensions further seem to underpin the safe-haven precious metal.In fact, Trump said that he was prepared to apply new sanctions on Russia, following the latter's largest-ever rocket and drone attack on Ukraine over the weekend. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reacted to the attack by saying that he is counting on a strong US response. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the commodity.The market focus now shifts to the release of the latest US inflation figures, which will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics during the latter part of the week and provide some meaningful impetus to the bullion. The fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair is to the upside, though overbought conditions warrant some caution.Gold needs to consolidate before any further move higher amid extremely overbought conditionsFrom a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding well above the 70.0 mark and making it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for the next leg up. Any corrective decline, however, could attract dip-buyers near the $3,600 round figure, below which the Gold price could slide further towards the $3,565-3,560 intermediate support en route last Thursday's swing low, around the $3,510 region. Some follow-through selling below the $3,500 psychological mark should pave the way for deeper losses. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
05:57 EUR/USD rises to near 1.1800 as trades expect ECB to keep rates unchanged
EUR/USD extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.1780 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD receives support as the US Dollar struggles amid rising odds of a Fed bumper 50-basis-point rate cut in September.The CME FedWatch tool shows markets pricing in 10% odds of a larger 50-basis-point move at the September meeting.The French government collapsed after Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a confidence vote in the National Assembly.EUR/USD extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.1780 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) continues to face challenges, following last week’s weaker-than-expected August jobs data, which has bolstered expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates in September. Markets are increasingly betting on the possibility of a larger 50-basis-point move.The CME FedWatch tool indicates a pricing in nearly 90% of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September policy meeting, up from 86% a week ago, with 10% odds of a potential 50 bps reduction this month. Traders will likely watch the US Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision due later in the day.Investors are preparing for a busy week of economic data from the United States (US), highlighted by two key inflation reports that could shape the interest rate outlook. The August US Producer Price Index (PPI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, with expectations that the headline PPI for August to rise 3.3% year-on-year, while the core measure is projected to increase 3.5% over the same period. Focus will shift toward Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).In the Eurozone, France is grappling with a fresh political crisis after Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a confidence vote in the National Assembly. Bayrou had unexpectedly called the vote amid strong opposition to his budget plans. President Emmanuel Macron is expected to appoint a new prime minister within days, per the BBC.Meanwhile, traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting on Thursday, supported by steady growth and inflation hovering near the target. Market participants will scrutinize the meeting for any guidance on the bank’s outlook for the rest of the year. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
05:56 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD gains ground to near $41.50 as jumbo Fed rate cut bets grow
The Silver price ( XAG/USD) trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around $41.40 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal edges higher as weaker job reports in recent months have increased expectations for a jumbo rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
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Anticipation of a Fed rate cut, coupled with geopolitical tensions, supports the Silver price. Traders await the US August PPI and CPI inflation reports later this week for fresh impetus. The Silver price ( XAG/USD) trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around $41.40 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal edges higher as weaker job reports in recent months have increased expectations for a jumbo rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Friday’s US jobs report showed that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 22K in August. This figure followed the 79K increase (revised from 73K) recorded in July and was below the market consensus of 75K. A cooling labor market has increased expectations for a Fed rate reduction to boost hiring. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Silver, supporting the non-yielding white metal. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and trade war concerns could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Silver price. “Safe haven buying is the key factor behind this surge in precious metal prices. Anticipation of a US federal rate cut, coupled with geopolitical tensions and trade war concerns, is pushing investors towards bullion," said Haresh Acharya, director of India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).The US inflation report this week could offer more cues about the US interest rate path. The August Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. In case of a surprise uptick in inflation, this could underpin the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
05:27 Japanese Yen strengthens on BoJ rate hike bets despite political uncertainty
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades with a positive bias against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction amid mixed fundamental cues.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen continues with its relative outperformance despite political uncertainty.The incoming macro data from Japan reaffirmed BoJ rate hike bets and underpin the JPY.Dovish Fed expectations weigh on the USD and further exert pressure on the USD/JPY pair.The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades with a positive bias against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction amid mixed fundamental cues. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order last Thursday to lower the Japanese auto import tariff, and fueled optimism. Furthermore, an upward revision of Japan's Q2 GDP growth figures, along with a rise in household spending and positive real wages, backs the case for an imminent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This marks a significant divergence in comparison to rising bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which contributes to the JPY's relative outperformance against the bearish US Dollar (USD).Meanwhile, Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation over the weekend. This adds a layer of uncertainty, which could temporarily hinder the BoJ from normalising policy and hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Apart from this, the upbeat market mood turns out to be another factor that contributes to capping the upside for the JPY. The USD, on the other hand, touched a fresh low since July 28 amid dovish Fed expectations. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside. Traders, however, might opt to wait for the release of the US inflation figures – the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.Japanese Yen bulls have the upper hand as BoJ rate hike bets overshadow domestic political turmoilJapan’s tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said in an X post on Tuesday that US tariffs on Japanese goods, including cars and auto parts, are set to be lowered by September 16. US President Donald Trump's signing of an executive order last Thursday formalized the U.S.-Japan trade deal and cleared uncertainties.The Cabinet Office reported on Monday that Japan's economy expanded at an annualised 2.2% rate in the April-June period from the previous quarter, much faster than the initial reading of 1.0% growth. On a quarterly basis, GDP increased by 0.5% compared to a median forecast and the initial estimate of a 0.3% rise.This comes after data released on Friday showed that real wages in Japan turned positive for the first time in seven months. This, along with a further rise in household spending, keeps hopes alive for an imminent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and continues to offer some support to the Japanese Yen.Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced over the weekend that he will step down as President of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This adds a layer of uncertainty, which could temporarily hinder the BoJ from normalising policy and hold back the JPY bulls from positioning for any meaningful upside.Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers and touches a fresh low since July 28 during the Asian session on Tuesday amid bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve. In fact, traders are pricing in a small possibility of a jumbo interest rate cut later this month.Moreover, the US central bank could lower borrowing costs three times by the year-end. The expectations were boosted by the US employment details released on Friday, which provided further evidence of a softening US labor market. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to hawkish BoJ and favors the JPY bulls.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the preliminary estimate of the annual revision of Nonfarm Payrolls later today, which might drive the USD and the USD/JPY pair. The focus will then shift to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.USD/JPY seems vulnerable to slide further; 146.80-146.70 support holds the key for bullish tradersThe overnight failure ahead of the very important 200-day SMA barrier and a subsequent slide below the 148.00 mark favor the USD/JPY bears. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining negative traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. Hence, some follow-through selling below the 147.00 mark, leading to a subsequent break through the 146.80-146.70 horizontal support, will reaffirm the negative bias and expose the August swing low, around the 146.20 region, before the pair eventually drops to the 146.00 mark.On the flip side, the Asian session high, around the 147.50-147.55 area, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering move and allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 148.00 mark. The momentum could extend further, though it runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the 200-day SMA barrier, around the 148.75 zone. This is closely followed by the 149.00 round figure and the 149.20 area, or a one-month high touched last week, which, if cleared, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bulls. Spot prices might then climb to the 150.00 psychological mark and then aim to challenge the August monthly swing high, around the 151.00 neighborhood. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
05:04 US Dollar Index softens below 97.50 as traders ramp up Fed rate cut bets
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, extends its downside to around 97.40 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The expectations of jumbo rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) undermine the DXY.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
04:53 Japan's Akazawa: US tariffs on Japanese goods to be cut by September 16
Japan trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said in an X post on Tuesday that US tariffs on Japanese goods, including cars and auto parts, are set to be lowered by September 16, Reuters reported.
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Japan trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said in an X post on Tuesday that US tariffs on Japanese goods, including cars and auto parts, are set to be lowered by September 16, Reuters reported. Last week, Trump signed an executive order implementing his trade agreement with Japan, which calls for lower 15% tariffs on Japanese cars, more than a month after the two countries reached an agreement in July.Market reactionAt the time of press, the USD/JPY pair was down 0.13% on the day at 147.30. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
04:42 Australian Dollar remains stronger following Westpac Consumer Confidence
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday for the third successive session. The AUD/USD pair appreciates following Westpac Consumer Confidence, which declined 3.1% to 95.4 in September from 98.5 in August.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Australian Dollar receives support from easing RBA rate cut bets.Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence fell 3.1% to 95.4 in September from 98.5 in August.The US Dollar continues to lose ground amid rising Fed rate cut odds.The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday for the third successive session. The AUD/USD pair appreciates following Westpac Consumer Confidence, which declined 3.1% to 95.4 in September from 98.5 in August. The drop reflected renewed concern about the economic outlook. Focus shifts toward the US Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision due later in the day.Mathew Hassan, Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting, noted that consumer recovery since mid-2024 has been sluggish, suggesting that additional policy easing may be required by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Hassan expects the central bank to lower rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November, followed by two further cuts in 2026.The AUD, however, received support after last week’s solid July Trade Surplus and Q2 GDP figures, along with hotter July inflation, dampening expectations of additional Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts. Swaps are now assigning nearly an 84% probability that the RBA will keep policy unchanged in September, while the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November has eased to 80% from 100%.Australian Dollar advances as US Dollar struggles amid rising odds of Fed rate cutsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is facing challenges and trading around 97.40 at the time of writing. The Greenback struggles as traders ramp up their bets on an extra rate reduction by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as the labor market continues to weaken.The CME FedWatch tool indicates a pricing in nearly 90% of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September policy meeting, up from 86% a week ago, with bets rising on a potential 50 bps reduction this month.Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday that he is still unsure whether September is the right time for an interest rate cut, following weaker jobs data. He added that high inflation data is still cause for concern, and key Fed officials may not be fully sold on a September rate cut.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 22,000 in August, falling short of the market expectations of 75,000. This figure followed the 79,000 increase (revised from 73,000) recorded in July. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.3% in August, as expected, against the 4.2% prior. Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.3% MoM in August, in line with expectations.China’s Trade Balance rose to CNY 732.7 billion in August, up from CNY 705.18 billion previously. Exports rose 4.8% YoY in August vs. 8% in July. The country’s imports advanced 1.7% YoY in the same period vs. 4.8% recorded previously.Australia’s Trade Balance increased to 7,310 million month-over-month in July, from 5,366 million the prior month. The trade surplus widened against the expected decline to 4,920 million. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, following the 0.3% growth in Q1 and surpassing the expectations of 0.5% expansion. Meanwhile, the annual Q2 GDP grew by 1.8%, compared with the 1.4% growth in Q1, and was above the consensus of a 1.6% increase.Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index rose 2.8% year-over-year in July, beating both the previous 1.9% increase and the 2.3% forecast.Australian Dollar rises to near 0.6600, ascending channel’s upper boundaryThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6590 on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting the strengthening of a bullish bias. Additionally, the pair is positioned above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating short-term price momentum is stronger.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may target the upper boundary of the ascending channel at around 0.6620, followed by the 10-month high of 0.6625, which was recorded on July 24. A break above this crucial resistance zone would strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair to approach the 11-month high of 0.6687, recorded in November 2024.The initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.6551, aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6540. A break below the channel would weaken the bullish bias and prompt the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6511. Further declines would dampen the medium-term price momentum and open the doors for the pair to navigate the region around the three-month low of 0.6414, recorded on August 21.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.06% -0.10% -0.10% 0.04% -0.10% -0.02% -0.12% EUR 0.06% -0.05% -0.03% 0.10% 0.03% 0.07% -0.05% GBP 0.10% 0.05% -0.02% 0.14% 0.08% 0.11% -0.01% JPY 0.10% 0.03% 0.02% 0.12% 0.04% 0.09% -0.02% CAD -0.04% -0.10% -0.14% -0.12% -0.11% -0.03% -0.15% AUD 0.10% -0.03% -0.08% -0.04% 0.11% 0.04% -0.08% NZD 0.02% -0.07% -0.11% -0.09% 0.03% -0.04% -0.10% CHF 0.12% 0.05% 0.01% 0.02% 0.15% 0.08% 0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Westpac Consumer Confidence The Westpac Consumer Confidence released by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce Melbourne Institute captures the level of sentiment that individuals have in economic activity reflecting respondents' evaluations of their family finances over the past and coming year, expectations about the one-year and five-year economic conditions and views about current buying conditions for major household items. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Tue Sep 09, 2025 00:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -3.1% Consensus: - Previous: 5.7% Source: University of Melbourne
04:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions rose from previous 5 to 7 in August
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions rose from previous 5 to 7 in August
04:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence: 4 (August) vs previous 7
Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence: 4 (August) vs previous 7
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1008 vs. 7.1029 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1008 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1029 and 7.1225 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1008 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1029 and 7.1225 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:01 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence declined to -3.1% in September from previous 5.7%
Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence declined to -3.1% in September from previous 5.7%
03:53 NZD/USD extends upside to near 0.5950 amid hopes for Fed jumbo rate cut
The NZD/USD pair extends the rally to near 0.5950 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) due to rising expectations of a jumbo rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
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The chance of a jumbo rate cut rises after a dismal US August jobs report. RBNZ’s dovish expectations might cap the upside for the pair. The NZD/USD pair extends the rally to near 0.5950 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) due to rising expectations of a jumbo rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders will keep an eye on the US August Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which is due later on Wednesday. The recent US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) showed that the US economy added 22,000 jobs in August. This was significantly lower than the 75,000 jobs expected and followed a revised increase of 79,000 in July. The Unemployment Rate edged up to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July, as projected. Traders ramp up their bets on an extra rate reduction by the Fed as the labor market continues to weaken. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in nearly a 90% possibility of a 25 basis points (bps) cut this month and a 10% odds of a 50 bps rate cut, according to LSEG estimates.The upcoming US inflation report later this week will be closely watched. The headline PPI is expected to show an increase of 3.3% YoY in August, while the core PPI is projected to show a rise of 3.5% during the same period. This figure will be crucial in shaping the Fed's future policy decisions. If the report shows hotter-than-expected inflation, this could boost the Greenback and create a headwind for the pair. A dovish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might weigh on the Kiwi. The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.0% at its August meeting, driven by a stalled economic recovery. The New Zealand central bank stated that there is scope to lower the OCR further if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as expected. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
03:31 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence rose from previous 5.7% to 95.4% in September
Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence rose from previous 5.7% to 95.4% in September
03:02 WTI drifts higher above $62.00 as OPEC+ slows production growth
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.15 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday.
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OPEC+ decided to add 137,000 bpd in October, a smaller increment than they’d scheduled for the previous two months.Traders await the API weekly crude oil stock report, which is due later on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.15 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI edges higher after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided to slow the pace of production hikes compared to previous months.OPEC+ has agreed to further raise oil production from October as its leader, Saudi Arabia, pushes to regain market share. The group decided to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day from October. This increase is significantly lower than the previous hikes of about 555,000 barrels per day in August and September and 411,000 barrels per day in June and July.Furthermore, expectations of a tighter supply due to potential new US sanctions on Russia provide some support to the WTI price. Ukrainian officials said on Sunday that Russia carried out its largest air attack of the war on Ukraine, setting the main government building on fire in central Kyiv and killing at least four people, including an infant. US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that the administration is prepared to move to a second phase of sanctions targeting Russia or its oil buyers.Oil traders will keep an eye on the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude oil stock report, which will be published later on Tuesday. If the data shows an unexpected rise in crude inventories, this could indicate weaker demand and might cap the upside for the WTI price in the near term. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
02:57 Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) up to 1.3% in August from previous 1%
Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) up to 1.3% in August from previous 1%
02:45 GBP/USD continues to climb ahead of key US inflation data
GBP/USD rose further on Monday, extending another 0.35% to recapture chart territory north of 1.3550. General market sentiment is banking on an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next meeting on September 17, thanks to rapidly deflating employment figures in the United States (US).
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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:08 USD/CAD posts modest losses near 1.3800 amid jumbo Fed rate cut bets
The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory near 1.3800 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Investors continued to assess the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, while expectations of extra rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) keep the Greenback under scrutiny.
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The US PPI and CPI inflation reports will be in the spotlight later this week. The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory near 1.3800 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Investors continued to assess the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, while expectations of extra rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) keep the Greenback under scrutiny. Traders await key US inflation data, which is due later this week. Friday’s NFP report showed US job growth fell in August, and the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to nearly a four-year high of 4.3%. These figures reinforced expectations that the US central bank will resume cutting interest rates at a policy meeting later this month and weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Fed funds futures are currently pricing in nearly a 90% odds of a 25 basis points (bps) cut this month and a 10% chance of a 50 bps rate reduction, according to LSEG estimates.Traders will take my cues from the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. "We feel there's a chance for a surprise uptick in the dollar, especially if the inflationary figures to arrive in the form of PPI (producer price index) and CPI (consumer price index) paint a picture in which prices are just simply getting out of control," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.Meanwhile, a rise in crude oil prices might support the commodity-linked Loonie and create a headwind for the pair. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
01:45 New Zealand Manufacturing Sales down to -2.9% in 2Q from previous 2.4%
New Zealand Manufacturing Sales down to -2.9% in 2Q from previous 2.4%
01:45 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Steadies below 147.50 as traders await fresh catalyst
The USD/JPY holds steady below the 147.50 figure yet posts a minuscule loss of 0.02% as traders market participants priced in a Fed rate cut at the September meeting.
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Hence, USD/JPY traders are waiting for a fresh catalyst, before opening fresh bets in the pair.If USD/JPY climbs past 148.00, the next resistance would be the 200-day SMA at 148.71. A breach of the latter will expose the 149.00 figure, ahead of 150.00.On the flipside, the USD/JPY first support would be the above-mentioned daily SMAs. If sellers drive prices below 147.55 and 147.42, the next support would be the 100-day SMA at 145.92USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
00:37 EUR/USD tops 1.1750 as soft US jobs cement Fed cut bets
The EUR/USD pair post back-to-back bullish days, rising over 0.37% on Monday as traders grow confident that monetary policy in the United States (US) will resume its easing cycle after the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the weakness of the labor market.
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A soft jobs report pushed the pair past the 1.1700 figure, though it remains shy of the yearly peak of 1.1829.Euro gains as Dollar weakens on NFP miss, French political turmoil adds uncertainty to outlookLast Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report reassured investors that the labor market in the largest economy in the world is undergoing an economic slowdown, yet to be reflected in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. In August, the economy added 22K jobs, below forecasts of 75K, while the Unemployment Rate ticked up from 4.2% to 4.3%.The data cemented the case for the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in 2025. Market players had fully priced in a 0.25% cut, but odds for a 0.50% rate reduction stand at a slim 12% chance.During the last couple of trading days, the US Dollar retreated almost 0.80% as traders await the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting. This has been a tailwind for Euro bulls, who also need to address the political turmoil in France.Recently, the Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted after losing the confidence vote. French President Macron is expected to name a new PM in the upcoming days, with speculations mounting that it would be named after the September 10 strikes.Ahead in the week, the docket on both sides of the Atlantic could ignite some volatility. In the US, inflation figures on the producer and consumer side could spark some action in the EUR/USD pair. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates in check.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD climbs above 1.1750 post NFP reportThe EUR/USD direction is directly linked to the US inflation report. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is released on Wednesday, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday. PPI is expected to hold steady at 3.3% YoY, while Core PPI is seen easing to 3.5% from 3.7%.CPI is projected to accelerate slightly, rising to 2.9% YoY from 2.7%, whereas Core CPI—which strips out food and energy—is anticipated to remain unchanged at 3.1%.In response, futures tied to the December 2025 Fed funds contract priced in nearly 69 basis points of easing by year-end.Investor sentiment in the Eurozone (EZ) slumped in September, revealed the Sentix investor confidence survey. The index fell from -3.7 to -9.2% in August. Sentix blamed the political instability in France, weakness in German industry, an “unfavorable” trade deal with the US and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Expectations that the Fed will reduce rates at the September meeting continued to trend higher. The Prime Market Terminal interest rate probability tool had priced in a 88% chance of the Fed easing policy by 25 basis points (bps) and a 12% chance for a 50-bps cut. The ECB is likely to keep rates unchanged, with a 89% probability, and only a 11% chance of a 25-bps cut.Technical outlook: EUR/USD poised to challenge 1.1800 in the near termThe EUR/USD uptrend extended with buyers gathering steam. From a momentum standpoint, bulls are in charge as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).With that said, the EUR/USD upside is seen to continue. The next resistance would be July 24, 1.1788, ahead of 1.1800. A breach of the latter will expose the year-to-date peak at 1.1829. Conversely, a daily close beneath 1.1700 can set the tone to challenge the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1675 ahead of the 50-day SMA at 1.1660. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
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