Forex News Timeline

10:06 EUR/INR: Indian Rupee cross rates mixed at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Monday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.56, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 97.03.

10:00 Spain Retail Sales (YoY): 3.6% (March)
Spain Retail Sales (YoY): 3.6% (March)

10:00 Spain Unemployment Survey registered at 11.36% above expectations (10.7%) in 1Q
Spain Unemployment Survey registered at 11.36% above expectations (10.7%) in 1Q

09:40 Palladium price: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $946.61 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $947.10.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $946.61 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $947.10.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $977.15 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, little changed after the XPT/USD pair settled at $977.15 at the previous close.

09:35 USD/CHF softens below 0.8300 amid US trade confusion
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to near 0.8270 during the early European session on Monday. Trade-related uncertainties between the US and China and persistent geopolitical risks boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF).

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Uncertainty and tariff concerns boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc. The Fed remains in a blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting on May 7. The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to near 0.8270 during the early European session on Monday. Trade-related uncertainties between the US and China and persistent geopolitical risks boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF). The preliminary reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) and the April employment report will be the highlights later this week. US President Donald Trump said that there has been progress and he has talked with China’s President Xi Jinping. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that he did not know if Trump had talked to Xi Jinping. Bessent further stated that he had interactions with Chinese authorities last week but did not mention tariffs. Also, Beijing has denied that trade negotiations are taking place. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy between the world's two largest economies underpins the safe-haven currency like the CHF and acts as a headwind for USD/CHF. Traders raise their bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs by one full percentage point in 2025. This, in turn, could drag the Greenback lower. Meanwhile, the Fed remains in blackout mode ahead of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary US Q1 GDP report and April employment data this week, as it might offer some hints about the Fed's next policy decisions and the US economic outlook. The expectation for April is that the US economy will add 130,000 jobs and the Unemployment Rate will remain at 4.2%. If the reports show a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the US Dollar (USD) against the CHF in the near term. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

09:04 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $63.19 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $62.97.

09:02 Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -3% in March
Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -3% in March

09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.3% in March from previous 3.4%
Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.3% in March from previous 3.4%

08:54 ECB's Villeroy: We still have a margin for rate cuts in Europe
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday that the central bank still has “a margin for rate cuts in Europe.”

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday that the central bank still has “a margin for rate cuts in Europe.”Additional commentsWe are in a moment of great economic uncertainty.But does not see any extra inflation in the region.Does not anticipate a recession in France, Europe.Trump's policies, US protectionism are not working.

08:49 EUR/GBP moves away from multi-week low, lacks bullish conviction and remains below mid-0.8500s
The EUR/GBP cross attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains close to a nearly three-week low around the 0.8510 region touched on Friday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-0.8500s, up less than 0.10% for the day.

08:41 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Finds support near 1.3300 after breaking below ascending channel
The GBP/USD pair steadies around 1.3320 during Asian trading hours on Monday, after posting losses in the previous session. Technical analysis on the daily chart suggests a weakening bullish trend, as the pair breaks below its ascending channel pattern.

07:59 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges near 1.1400
The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note around 1.1360 during the Asian session on Monday. The Greenback steadies as traders are confused by mixed signals on US-China trade relations.

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The positive view of the pair prevails above the key 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator. The immediate resistance level emerges at 1.1400; the first support level to watch is 1.1315.The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note around 1.1360 during the Asian session on Monday. The Greenback steadies as traders are confused by mixed signals on US-China trade relations. Despite US President Donald Trump's claims that there has been progress and that he has talked with China’s President Xi Jinping, Beijing has denied that trade negotiations are taking place, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not announce on Sunday that tariff talks were underway.Technically, the constructive outlook of EUR/USD remains in place as the major is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 61.80, displaying bullish momentum in the near term. The first upside target for the major pair emerges at the 1.1400 psychological level. Extended gains could see a rally to 1.1547, the high of April 22. The additional upside filter to watch is 1.1647, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band.On the flip side, the initial support level for EUR/USD is seen at 1.1315, the low of April 24. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to the key contention level at 1.1000, the round figure. The next downside target to watch is 1.0888, the low of April 8. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

07:53 EUR/JPY slips below 163.00 as trade-related uncertainties benefit the safe-haven JPY
The EUR/JPY cross kicks off the new week on a weaker note and moves away from over a three-week top, around the 163.75 area touched on Friday. The downward trajectory drags spot prices back below the 163.00 mark during the Asian session, though it lacks bearish conviction.

07:37 US Dollar Index remains above 97.00 due to easing US-China tensions
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, continues to rise for the second consecutive day, trading near 99.60 during Asian hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,038.54 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,112.97 it cost on Friday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 105,423.70 per tola from INR 106,291.90 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,038.54 10 Grams 90,385.39 Tola 105,423.70 Troy Ounce 281,130.20 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:34 Gold price languishes below $3,300; last week’s swing low holds the key for bulls
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week and drops to the $3,268-3,267 area, back closer to Friday's swing low, during the Asian session.

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Despite mixed signals from the US and China, investors remain hopeful over the potential de-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. Apart from this, a fall in China's gold consumption in the first quarter of 2025 turned out to be a key factor subsiding demand for the traditional safe-haven bullion. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on last week's strong recovery gains from a multi-year low – marking its first weekly gain since March. Prospects of Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks could cushion the Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any meaningful corrective decline from the all-time peak touched last Tuesday. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by receding safe-haven demand; downside seems cushionedChina has exempted some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs imposed earlier this month in response to the 145% US tariffs on Chinese imports. This comes on top of US President Donald Trump's reassertion that trade talks were underway with China and fuels hopes for a quick de-escalation of trade war between the world's two largest economies. China has yet to confirm any exemptions and denies ongoing tariff talks. Meanwhile, Trump's shifting announcements and global recession fears sustain demand for the safe-haven Gold price. The China Gold Association said on Monday that the country's gold consumption fell 5.96% year-on-year to 290.492 tonnes in the first quarter of 2025. Moreover, high prices continued to curb demand for gold jewelry, which slumped 26.85% year-on-year to 134.531 tonnes. Meanwhile, consumption of gold bars and coins surged 29.81% to 138.018 tonnes.The US Dollar preserves last week's recovery gains, though it lacks follow-through amid bets that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs by one full percentage point in 2025. Moreover, geopolitical risk remains in play amid the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, which limits losses for the precious metal.North Korea has confirmed for the first time that it has sent troops to fight in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump urged Russia on Sunday to stop its attacks in Ukraine while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the US might walk away from peace efforts if it does not see progress. This, in turn, warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bears. Investors this week will confront the release of key US macro data, including the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, US Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday, and the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The data may provide more insight into the Fed's policy outlook and provide some meaningful impetus to the commodity. Gold price bears need to wait for some follow-through selling below $3,265-3,260 before placing fresh betsFrom a technical perspective, bearish traders need to wait for acceptance below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest leg up from the vicinity of mid-$2,900s, or the monthly swing low before placing fresh bets. Some follow-through selling below the $3,265-3,260 immediate support will confirm a breakdown and make the Gold price vulnerable to extend its recent corrective decline from the $3,500 psychological mark, or the all-time peak. The subsequent downfall could drag the precious metal to the 50% retracement level, around the $3,225 region, en route to the $3,200 mark. A convincing break below the latter will suggest that the commodity has topped out in the near term.On the flip side, attempted recovery back above the $3,300 mark might confront some resistance near the Asian session high, around the $3,331-3,332 region. Any further move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the $3,366-3,368 supply zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 mark. The momentum could extend further toward the $3,425-3,427 intermediate hurdle before bulls make a fresh attempt to conquer the $3,500 psychological mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:04 FX option expiries for Apr 28 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Apr 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1120 967m1.1250 3.5b1.1400 625mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 140.00 2.1b147.50 813mUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8180 600mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6310 694m0.6390 499m0.6620 968mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8710 555m

06:33 China’s Vice Commerce Minister: Will accelerate reform to integrate domestic and foreign trade
China’s Vice Commerce Minister Sheng Qiuping said on Monday that the government “will accelerate reform to integrate domestic and foreign trade.”

06:21 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD breaks below $33.00 as safe-haven demand weakens
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to lose ground for the second straight day, hovering around $32.80 per troy during Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal faces pressure as improving trade relations between the United States (US) and China diminish its safe-haven appeal.

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The precious metal faces pressure as improving trade relations between the United States (US) and China diminish its safe-haven appeal.On Friday, reports indicated that China had exempted certain US imports from its steep 125% tariffs, raising hopes that the long-running trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies could be nearing a resolution. Further boosting sentiment, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday, according to Reuters, that the Trump administration is holding daily discussions with China on tariffs.However, conflicting signals persist. Reuters cited a Chinese embassy spokesperson on Friday, who firmly denied any ongoing negotiations, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs." The spokesperson also urged Washington to "stop creating confusion." In addition, a Beijing official reiterated on Thursday that no "economic and trade negotiations" are underway and emphasized that the US must "completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures" to reopen talks.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) strengthened, weighing further on dollar-denominated commodities like Silver. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, rose for the second consecutive session, trading near 99.70 at the time of writing. The Federal Reserve (Fed) remains in a blackout period ahead of its May 7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.Looking ahead, traders are focused on several major US economic releases this week, including the preliminary Q1 GDP report, March PCE inflation figures, and April jobs data. These indicators could provide critical clues about the Fed's next policy moves and the broader economic outlook. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

06:01 NZD/USD weakens to near 0.5950 despite potential fresh stimulus measures from China
The NZD/USD pair softens to around 0.5950 during the Asian trading hours on Monday, pressured by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Signs that global trade tensions between the United States and China may be easing provide some support to the Greenback.

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China announced further measures to boost economic growth and employment. The RBNZ is expected to cut its 3.5% OCR by 25 bps in the May meeting. The NZD/USD pair softens to around 0.5950 during the Asian trading hours on Monday, pressured by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Signs that global trade tensions between the United States and China may be easing provide some support to the Greenback. Traders assess China’s press conference about policies and measures on Monday. The Politburo emphasized efforts to maintain stability by supporting firms and workers most affected by US tariffs, according to Friday's statement. The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Ministry of Commerce and People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday reiterated plans to accelerate debt issuance, ease monetary policy and vowed to support employers to safeguard jobs. Chinese authorities announced further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. They will closely monitor domestic and external changes and improve the policy toolkit. Beijing added that some new policies will be rolled out in the second quarter. This, in turn, could lift the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday that the Trump administration is having daily talks with China over tariffs. Rollins further stated that there were ongoing talks between the US and China and that trade negotiations with other nations were “very close.” The easing fears of trade tensions underpin the Greenback and act as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair for the time being. Meanwhile, the rising bets of further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might weigh on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The markets fully expect the RBNZ to cut its 3.5% OCR by 25 basis points (bps) in May, with a further reduction to 2.75% by year-end. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

05:59 WTI trades with modest losses around $62.70-$62.65 area, downside seems limited
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on modest gains registered over the past two days and attract some sellers near the $63.55 area during the Asian session on Monday.

05:41 USD/CAD rises to near 1.3900 due to easing US-China tensions, lower Oil prices
USD/CAD is advancing for the second consecutive session, hovering around 1.3880 during Asian trading hours on Monday. The pair continues to strengthen as the US Dollar (USD) gains momentum, supported by signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

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The pair continues to strengthen as the US Dollar (USD) gains momentum, supported by signs of easing tensions between the US and China.On Friday, sources reported that China exempted certain US imports from its 125% tariffs, fueling optimism that the long-standing trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies could be nearing resolution. However, Reuters cited a Chinese embassy spokesperson who firmly denied any ongoing negotiations, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs," and urged Washington to "stop creating confusion."The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is also posting gains for the second straight day, trading near 99.70 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains in a blackout period ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for May 7.Adding to the complex picture, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins mentioned on Sunday, according to Reuters, that the Trump administration is engaged in daily discussions with China regarding tariffs. Rollins highlighted that not only are talks ongoing, but trade deals with other countries are also reportedly "very close."On the other hand, the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces pressure from declining crude Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices continues to slide as progress in US-Iran nuclear negotiations raises the possibility of Iranian crude re-entering the market. Additionally, expectations that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+ could increase output for a second consecutive month have further weighed on Oil prices. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

05:32 Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant as bets for delayed BoJ rate hike offset trade uncertainties
The Japanese Yen (JPY) oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Monday and stalls the recent pullback from a multi-month high touched against its American counterpart last week.

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not back President Donald Trump’s assertion that tariff talks with China were underway. This keeps a lid on the optimism over a quick resolution of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and lends some support to the safe-haven JPY.Meanwhile, traders have pushed back expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) due to rising economic risks from US tariffs. However, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for more BoJ rate hikes this year, which marks a big divergence in comparison to bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and also acts as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY. Japanese Yen could draw support from persistent trade-related uncertainties, bets for more BoJ rate hikes in 2025US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that he did not know if US President Donald Trump had talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Bessent added that he had interactions with his Chinese counterparts last week, but did not mention tariffs.Moreover, China has repeatedly denied that any trade talks are occurring with the US. This tempers hopes for a de-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and could underpin the safe-haven Japanese Yen at the start of a new week. Japan's vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, denied a media report that Bessent had told Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato at a meeting last week that a weak US Dollar and a strong JPY are desirable.Meanwhile, Bessent said in an X post on Saturday that he had very constructive talks with his Japanese counterpart, fueling hopes for an eventual US-Japan trade deal. This turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the JPY during the Asian session.Despite high inflation, the Bank of Japan is expected to move cautiously and pause further rate hikes amid concerns that the new US tariffs could shave off 0.5% of Japan's GDP. The BoJ is anticipated to leave rates unchanged at its policy meeting this week. However, inflation remains above the 2% target for the third straight year and big firms continue to offer bumper pay hikes this year. This gives the BoJ headroom to tighten its monetary policy in 2025, which supports prospects for a further JPY appreciation. In contrast, traders are betting the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs by a full percentage point by the end of this year. This fails to assist the US Dollar to build on last week's bounce from a multi-year low.Meanwhile, North Korea confirmed on Monday that it has sent troops to fight for Russia in the war with Ukraine. Moreover, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US might abandon its attempts to broker a deal if Russia and Ukraine do not make headway.This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play, which, along with the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations, suggests that the path of least resistance for the lower-yielding JPY is to the upside. USD/JPY might struggle to capitalize on last week’s recovery and face stiff resistance near the 144.35 regionA sustained move beyond the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart will be seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bulls against the backdrop of last week's breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April downfall. Oscillators on the 4-hour chart show positive traction, hinting at an intraday move up, but daily indicators have yet to confirm a positive bias and caution is still warranted. Hence, any subsequent strength beyond the 144.00 mark might confront stiff resistance near the 144.35 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. level. Some follow-through buying, however, should pave the way for some meaningful upside in the near term.On the flip side, the 143.25 area, closely followed by the 143.00 round figure, now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further slide might continue to attract some dip-buyers near the 142.60 area or the 23.6% Fibo. This should help limit the downside near the 142.25 support zone. However, a convincing break below the latter, leading to a subsequent break through the 142.00 round figure, could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to weaken further towards the mid-141.00s en route to the 141.10-141.00 region. The downward trajectory could extend further towards intermediate support near the 140.50 area and expose the multi-month low – levels below the 140.00 psychological mark touched last week. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:29 USD/INR holds steady amid India-Pakistan tensions
The Indian Rupee (INR) flat lines on Monday. Rising tension with Pakistan could trigger a risk-off sentiment among traders, which might drag the Indian currency lower.

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US President Donald Trump said on Friday that the US will be reasonable on tariffs, adding that markets are adjusting to tariff policy. The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment in April rose to 52.2 from 50.8 in the previous reading, better than the estimation of 50.8. Consumers’ inflation expectations for one year eased to 6.5% in April versus 6.7% prior. USD/INR’s outlook remains bearish below the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee trades flat on the day. The negative outlook of the USD/INR pair remains intact, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 41.00, supporting the sellers in the near term. The lower limit of the descending trend channel at 84.80 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. Extended losses could see a drop to 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024. Further south, the additional downside filter to watch is 84.08, the low of November 6, 2024.In the bullish case, the first upside barrier is located at 85.80, the 100-day EMA. If the pair breaks above this level, it could draw in more bullish pressure and push the pair toward 86.35, the upper boundary of the trend channel. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:25 PBOC Deputy Governor: Impact on China’s forex assets from volatility in US bond markets is limited
The People’s Bank of China ()PBOC) Deputy Governor said in a news conference that the “impact on China’s forex assets from volatility in US bond markets is limited.”

04:54 Australian Dollar loses ground due to rising expectations of RBA’s rate cut in May
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends loses for the second successive session on Monday. The AUD/USD pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

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The AUD/USD pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.China exempted certain US imports from its 125% tariffs on Friday, according to business sources. The move has fueled hopes that the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies might be drawing to a close.However, Reuters cited a Chinese embassy spokesperson on Friday, who firmly denied any current negotiations with the US, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs." The spokesperson urged Washington to "stop creating confusion."The AUD also faces headwinds as expectations are mounting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver another 25-basis-point rate cut in May, as economic uncertainties deepen and concerns over the global trade environment intensify.Australian Dollar falls as US Dollar gains ground amid easing US-China concernsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, gains ground for the second successive day, trading near 99.60 at the time of writing. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is in blackout mode ahead of its May 7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday, as reported by Reuters, that the Trump administration is holding daily discussions with China regarding tariffs. Rollins emphasized that talks were ongoing and that trade agreements with other countries were also "very close."Michael Hart, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, remarked that it's encouraging to see the US and China reviewing tariffs. Hart noted that while exclusion lists for specific categories are reportedly in the works, no official announcements or policies have been released yet. Both China’s Ministry of Commerce and the US Department of Commerce are currently gathering input on the matter.The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that initial applications for unemployment benefits rose for the week ending April 19. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 222,000, slightly above expectations and up from the previous week’s revised figure of 216,000. Meanwhile, Continuing Jobless Claims declined by 37,000, falling to 1.841 million for the week ending April 12.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged on Wednesday that current tariffs—145% on Chinese goods and 125% on US goods—are unsustainable and must be lowered for meaningful dialogue to begin.National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, President Trump's chief economic adviser, stated that the US Trade Representative (USTR) has 14 meetings scheduled with foreign trade ministers. Hassett also noted that 18 written proposals have been received from these ministers. According to Hassett, China remains open to negotiations.Westpac forecasted on Thursday that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming May 20 meeting. The RBA has adopted a data-driven approach in recent quarters, making it difficult to predict its actions beyond the next meeting with confidence.A Beijing official reiterated on Thursday that no "economic and trade negotiations" with US were underway and stressed that the US must "completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures" to pave the way for talks.China's Finance Ministry stated on Friday that global economic growth remains sluggish, with tariffs and trade wars continuing to undermine economic and financial stability. The ministry urged all parties to enhance the international economic and financial system through stronger multilateral cooperation, per Reuters.Australian Dollar remains below 0.6400; resistance appears near nine-day EMAThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6390 on Monday, with the daily chart showing a bullish bias. The pair continues to hold above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains firmly above the 50 level, suggesting sustained upward momentum.On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the recent four-month high of 0.6439, posted on April 22. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a rally toward the five-month high at 0.6515.Initial support is aligned at the nine-day EMA of 0.6367, followed by stronger support near the 50-day EMA at 0.6305. A sustained drop below these levels would weaken the bullish setup and could lead to deeper losses, with the March 2020 low near 0.5914 coming into view.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.08% 0.18% 0.01% 0.09% 0.24% 0.12% -0.16% EUR -0.08% 0.04% -0.08% -0.02% 0.06% 0.03% -0.26% GBP -0.18% -0.04% -0.13% -0.04% 0.00% -0.02% -0.29% JPY -0.01% 0.08% 0.13% 0.09% 0.27% -1.30% 0.09% CAD -0.09% 0.02% 0.04% -0.09% 0.04% 0.04% -0.23% AUD -0.24% -0.06% -0.01% -0.27% -0.04% -0.03% -0.32% NZD -0.12% -0.03% 0.02% 1.30% -0.04% 0.03% -0.28% CHF 0.16% 0.26% 0.29% -0.09% 0.23% 0.32% 0.28% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:48 Japan’s Top FX Diplomat Mimura: US side did not touch upon exchange-rate targets in talks
Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said early Monday that it is “completely untrue about the media report that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a stronger Yen is preferable.”

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2043 vs. 7.2066 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2043 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.2066 and 7.2828 Reuters estimate.

03:54 EUR/USD remains subdued around 1.1350 due to signs of easing US-China tensions
EUR/USD continues to weaken for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.1360 during Asian hours on Monday. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD faces challenges as the US Dollar gains strength, supported by signs of easing tensions between the US and China.China announced exemptions for certain US imports from its 125% tariffs, offering a glimmer of hope for improved trade relations.ECB’s dovish expectations are building amid rising concerns that Eurozone inflation could fall short of the central bank’s 2% target.EUR/USD continues to weaken for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.1360 during Asian hours on Monday. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.On Friday, China exempted certain US imports from its 125% tariffs, according to business sources. The move has fueled hopes that the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies might be drawing to a close.Adding to the sentiment, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday, as reported by Reuters, that the Trump administration is holding daily discussions with China regarding tariffs. Rollins emphasized that talks were ongoing and that trade agreements with other countries were also "very close."Despite these comments, Reuters cited a Chinese embassy spokesperson on Friday, who firmly denied any current negotiations with the US, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs." The spokesperson urged Washington to "stop creating confusion." Additionally, a Beijing official reiterated on Thursday that no "economic and trade negotiations" were underway and stressed that the US must "completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures" to pave the way for talks.Meanwhile, dovish expectations surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) are mounting, fueled by growing concerns that Eurozone inflation may fall short of the ECB's 2% target. Last Thursday, ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn warned of downside risks to inflation, noting, "It is quite possible that the projections for medium-term inflation under the current circumstances may well be below the 2% target." Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

03:53 GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3300 mark; downside potential seems limited
The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band around the 1.3300 round-figure mark during the Asian session.

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The US Dollar (USD) preserves last week's recovery gains from a multi-year low amid the uncertainty over US-China trade talks, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that he did not know if US President Donald Trump had talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping. This keeps a lid on the optimism led by Trump's assertion that tariff talks with China were underway and underpins the USD's relative safe-haven status. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws some support from the upbeat domestic data released on Friday and hopes that the UK will strike a trade deal with the US soon. In fact, UK Retail Sales unexpectedly rose by 0.4% in March following the previous month's downwardly revised growth of 0.7%. For the first quarter as a whole, retail sales rose by 1.6% - marking the strongest reading in four years and tempering market expectations for a more dovish Bank of England (BoE) rate-cut path going forward. In contrast, traders have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs at least three times by the end of this year. This, along with concerns about the economic fallout from Trump's trade policies, is holding back the USD bulls from placing fresh bets and lending some support to the GBP/USD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any meaningful downside for spot prices. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

03:52 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edges lower to near $3,300 as US-China trade tensions ease
The Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower to around $3,310 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal retreats after hitting its record high last week amid signs that global trade tensions may be easing.

03:13 US Agriculture Secretary says talking to 100 countries every day on trade, including China
US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday that the Trump administration is having daily conversations with China over tariffs, per Reuters. Rollins noted that there were ongoing talks between the two nations and that trade deals with other nations were “very close.”

03:03 China vows to promote growth, employment
China will hold a press conference about policies and measures on stabilizing employment, ensuring stable growth, and promoting high-quality development on Monday, per Bloomberg.

02:40 US President Donald Trump urges Russia to stop attacks on Ukraine
US President Donald Trump urged Russia on Sunday to stop its attacks in Ukraine, while his top diplomat said the US might walk away from peace efforts if it does not see progress, per Reuters.

02:06 AUD/USD holds below 0.6400 amid signs of easing US-China tensions
The AUD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.6390 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Aussie amid signs of easing US-China tensions.

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De-escalation in the US-China tariff war provides some support to the US Dollar. China vowed to support firms and workers affected by tariffs. The AUD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.6390 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Aussie amid signs of easing US-China tensions. China will hold a press conference about policies and measures on stabilizing employment and ensuring stable growth on Monday, which will be closely watched by traders.The Greenback posted its first weekly gain since mid-March on Friday after China granted some tariff exemptions for US imports. This raises hopes that the trade war between the world's two largest economies is nearing an end. China exempted some US imports from its 125% tariffs on Friday, according to businesses, although China quickly knocked down US President Donald Trump's assertion that negotiations between the two countries were underway.Friday's statement by the Politburo focused on efforts to maintain stability at home by supporting firms and workers most affected by US tariffs. The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Ministry of Commerce and People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will jointly hold the conference on Monday. The Chinese authorities reiterated plans to accelerate debt issuance, ease monetary policy and vowed to support employers to safeguard jobs. Any signs of large stimulus plans could boost the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD), as China is a major trading partner of Australia. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

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Forex News Timeline

10:06 EUR/INR: Indian Rupee cross rates mixed at the start of the European session Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Monday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.56, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 97.03.

10:00 Spain Retail Sales (YoY): 3.6% (March) Spain Retail Sales (YoY): 3.6% (March)

10:00 Spain Unemployment Survey registered at 11.36% above expectations (10.7%) in 1Q Spain Unemployment Survey registered at 11.36% above expectations (10.7%) in 1Q

09:40 Palladium price: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $946.61 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $947.10.

09:04 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $63.19 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $62.97.

09:02 Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -3% in March Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -3% in March

09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.3% in March from previous 3.4% Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.3% in March from previous 3.4%

08:54 ECB's Villeroy: We still have a margin for rate cuts in Europe European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday that the central bank still has “a margin for rate cuts in Europe.”

07:59 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges near 1.1400 The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note around 1.1360 during the Asian session on Monday. The Greenback steadies as traders are confused by mixed signals on US-China trade relations.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:34 Gold price languishes below $3,300; last week’s swing low holds the key for bulls Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week and drops to the $3,268-3,267 area, back closer to Friday's swing low, during the Asian session.

07:04 FX option expiries for Apr 28 NY cut FX option expiries for Apr 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

06:33 China’s Vice Commerce Minister: Will accelerate reform to integrate domestic and foreign trade China’s Vice Commerce Minister Sheng Qiuping said on Monday that the government “will accelerate reform to integrate domestic and foreign trade.”

05:59 WTI trades with modest losses around $62.70-$62.65 area, downside seems limited West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on modest gains registered over the past two days and attract some sellers near the $63.55 area during the Asian session on Monday.

05:32 Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant as bets for delayed BoJ rate hike offset trade uncertainties The Japanese Yen (JPY) oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Monday and stalls the recent pullback from a multi-month high touched against its American counterpart last week.

05:29 USD/INR holds steady amid India-Pakistan tensions The Indian Rupee (INR) flat lines on Monday. Rising tension with Pakistan could trigger a risk-off sentiment among traders, which might drag the Indian currency lower.

05:25 PBOC Deputy Governor: Impact on China’s forex assets from volatility in US bond markets is limited The People’s Bank of China ()PBOC) Deputy Governor said in a news conference that the “impact on China’s forex assets from volatility in US bond markets is limited.”

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2043 vs. 7.2066 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2043 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.2066 and 7.2828 Reuters estimate.

03:53 GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3300 mark; downside potential seems limited The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band around the 1.3300 round-figure mark during the Asian session.

03:03 China vows to promote growth, employment China will hold a press conference about policies and measures on stabilizing employment, ensuring stable growth, and promoting high-quality development on Monday, per Bloomberg.

02:40 US President Donald Trump urges Russia to stop attacks on Ukraine US President Donald Trump urged Russia on Sunday to stop its attacks in Ukraine, while his top diplomat said the US might walk away from peace efforts if it does not see progress, per Reuters.

02:06 AUD/USD holds below 0.6400 amid signs of easing US-China tensions The AUD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.6390 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Aussie amid signs of easing US-China tensions.

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