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20:49 Gold price falls as US-China tariff talks ease tensions, Fed in focus
Gold prices retreated by more than 1.50% on Wednesday, driven by an improvement in risk appetite following the announcement of tariff talks between the United States (US) and China. Meanwhile, traders' focus is on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting later in the day.

19:50 Dow Jones Industrial Average holds steady ahead of Fed rate call
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trimmed into the midrange during early Wednesday trading, treading water just above the 41,000 major handle as investors await the latest rate call from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

19:45 USD/JPY struggles as Fed policy decision and US-China trade talks loom
The USD/JPY pair is trading in a tight range as markets await the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision on Wednesday. Investors widely expect the central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range for the third consecutive meeting, despite rising economic uncertainties.

USD/JPY trades in a narrow range ahead of the Fed’s May policy decision, reflecting investor caution.Market participants brace for signals on future rate cuts amid mixed US economic data.Technical levels show a challenging path for bulls, with resistance near 144.00 and support around 142.20.The USD/JPY pair is trading in a tight range as markets await the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision on Wednesday. Investors widely expect the central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range for the third consecutive meeting, despite rising economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, optimism over US-China trade talks in Switzerland has provided some support to the US Dollar (USD), limiting the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen (JPY).Ahead of the Fed’s meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has stabilized near 99.40 after three consecutive days of losses. This reflects a cautious tone as investors weigh mixed economic signals. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders see virtually no chance of a rate cut in May but assign a 30% probability for a 25 basis point cut in June. This uncertainty has kept the USD in a consolidation phase, particularly against the JPY, which has weakened amid reduced demand for safe-haven assets.Additionally, US policymakers have expressed concerns about a potential economic slowdown. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently highlighted that some businesses are preparing for possible layoffs if uncertainty persists. This cautious tone was echoed by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who suggested that rising unemployment could pave the way for future rate cuts. Despite stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls data for April, which showed 177,000 jobs added versus the expected 130,000, markets remain hesitant to fully discount a June rate cut.Technical AnalysisFrom a technical standpoint, USD/JPY faces significant resistance around 144.00, with further barriers at 144.68 and 146.70. On the downside, support is seen near 142.20, with critical levels at 140.00 and 139.50 if bearish momentum picks up. The RSI is neutral around 46.25, indicating a lack of strong directional bias, while the MACD is generating a buy signal, suggesting a potential short-term recovery. However, longer-term moving averages like the 100-day SMA (150.63) and 200-day SMA (149.62) maintain a bearish outlook, reflecting a broader downtrend.In summary, USD/JPY is likely to remain in a consolidation phase as traders await clarity from the Fed’s policy statement and post-meeting press conference. Any dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could pressure the pair toward lower support levels, while a more hawkish tone might provide the USD with a temporary boost.Daily Chart

19:28 US Treasury Secretary Bessent: China trade talks to begin Saturday
United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed that US-China trade talks will begin on neutral ground when delegates from the two countries meet in Switzerland this weekend.

United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed that US-China trade talks will begin on neutral ground when delegates from the two countries meet in Switzerland this weekend.Key highlightsBessent declines to say which countries the US could reach trade deals with this week, saying it would be detrimental to US interests.

Some trade negotiations are quite advanced towards agreements in principle.

China negotiations will begin on Saturday in Switzerland. Trump Trade Adviser Navarro won't be joining China talks in Geneva.

Talks with China on Saturday are a beginning for talks, not advanced discussions.

The Treasury market was well functioning in the April turmoil. We and the Fed have a very large toolkit for Treasuries.

There is broad investor support for Treasuries in auctions.

It is time for China to graduate from developing country status.

The US will always meet its debt obligations.

Many bank capital regulations may be too tight.

The unfettered ability to borrow has made US more prolific.

The market may discipline us one day. We're working to avoid it.

The conditions for a strong dollar are important for confidence.

I believe the debt-to-GDP ratio will drop next year.

19:18 AUD/USD retreats as traders eye Powell and US-China trade talks
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading lower on Wednesday after failing to break above a key resistance level, with markets turning cautious ahead of expected commentary from United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and high-level trade talks between the US and China.

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At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.6467, pulling back from the five-month high of 0.6515, just below the December 2024 peak of 0.65156.This mild retreat reflects consolidation rather than reversal, as traders await clarity on monetary policy, global risk sentiment, and the near-term demand outlook tied to China. The next directional move in AUD/USD will likely hinge on three critical themes: the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance, the tone and outcome of the upcoming US-China talks, and China’s latest round of economic stimulus.Policy direction from the Federal Reserve remains the top riskWith the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, markets expect interest rates to remain unchanged. The focus is not on immediate action but on when monetary easing will begin, with a 25 basis point cut currently priced in for July. Traders are particularly interested in whether comments from Chair Jerome Powell alter the current outlook or reinforce expectations for a mid-year pivot.While policy rates are likely to stay on hold, any shift in tone could have significant implications for the US Dollar (USD). A dovish message would support the case for July easing and could benefit risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar. Conversely, a more cautious or data-dependent stance could strengthen the US Dollar and pressure AUD/USD lower.Trade negotiations could shape sentiment around ChinaAlthough monetary policy dominates near-term positioning, geopolitics is also in play. On Tuesday, US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent stated that trade talks between senior US and Chinese officials are expected to begin on Friday in Switzerland. While formal confirmation remains pending, markets are sensitive to any signal of progress or breakdown.For the Australian Dollar, the stakes are high. As a major exporter of iron ore, coal, and other commodities to China, Australia’s economic outlook is tightly linked to Chinese demand. Any easing of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing could lift expectations for Chinese growth and indirectly support the AUD. Conversely, if talks stall or rhetoric hardens, risk appetite may fade, capping further upside in the pair.Australian fundamentals are stable but overshadowed by external risksMeanwhile, Australia’s political and economic backdrop remains steady. On Saturday, the federal election delivered a clear victory for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party, removing political uncertainty and reinforcing expectations for policy continuity. While the result has had little direct impact on currency markets, it supports a stable investment climate.Economically, inflation in Australia remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range but is gradually easing. The labour market is still tight, though recent data suggests moderation in hiring momentum. The RBA is expected to hold rates steady in the near term while monitoring inflation and wage growth. Domestically, these conditions are broadly neutral for the AUD, leaving external drivers — particularly the Federal Reserve and China — as the key influencers.Stimulus measures in China offer indirect support for AUDChina’s macroeconomic policy also continues to shape expectations for the Australian Dollar. On Wednesday, Chinese authorities cut the benchmark interest rate by 10 basis points to 1.4% and lowered the Reserve Requirement Ratio by 50 basis points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan (USD 138 billion) into the banking system. The measures aim to stabilise domestic demand and support growth amid ongoing headwinds.For Australia, stronger Chinese demand typically boosts exports and commodity prices, lending indirect support to the AUD. While the immediate market reaction was measured, investors will now look for confirmation through data, particularly in trade, manufacturing, and credit, to determine whether the stimulus is gaining traction.Technical overview: Key resistance holds amid fading momentumFrom a technical perspective, AUD/USD remains within a bullish structure but has failed to clear a major resistance zone near 0.6515, a level aligned with the December high at 0.65156. The pair has since pulled back modestly and is now consolidating just below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which currently sits at 0.6461 and continues to act as dynamic resistance.Momentum indicators remain constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 60.12, above the neutral 50 level, suggesting that buyers have not exited, but conviction has weakened in the absence of a new catalyst.Two major Fibonacci retracement levels help frame near-term trading conditions. The short-term retracement, drawn from the September 2024 high of 0.6943 to the April low of 0.5868, places the 38.2% level at 0.6549 — now acting as initial upside resistance — while the 50.0% and 61.8% levels come in at 0.6428 and 0.6307, respectively, providing layered support.On a broader scale, the long-term Fibonacci retracement, taken from the March 2020 low of 0.5507 to the February 2021 high of 0.8007, places the 23.6% retracement at 0.6699 and the 50.0% level at 0.6758 — targets that would only come into view on a decisive breakout beyond the current range.AUD/USD daily chartA daily close above the 0.6515–0.65156 resistance area would confirm a breakout and could open the path toward 0.6549, corresponding to the 38.2% retracement of the September–April decline. A stronger rally could then extend toward 0.6699 and 0.6758, both part of the long-term retracement range. A dovish message from Jerome Powell, progress in trade negotiations, or stronger-than-expected Chinese data could trigger this scenario.Failure to hold above the 200-day SMA at 0.6461 and the 50.0% short-term retracement at 0.6428 would shift the bias lower. In that case, support at 0.6380, a former range high, becomes vulnerable, with 0.6307 (61.8% short-term retracement) the next key level. A hawkish tilt from the Federal Reserve, trade friction, or weak Chinese indicators could accelerate downside momentum. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

18:38 EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Euro holds steady near 0.8500 as mixed signals persist
The EUR/GBP pair remained relatively flat on Wednesday, hovering near the 0.8500 zone after the European session. Price action was contained within a narrow range, reflecting a market lacking clear directional momentum.

EUR/GBP trades near the 0.8500 zone after a quiet Wednesday session.Overall tone remains bullish, supported by longer-term averages despite mixed short-term signals.Support levels hold just below, while resistance aligns closely overhead.The EUR/GBP pair remained relatively flat on Wednesday, hovering near the 0.8500 zone after the European session. Price action was contained within a narrow range, reflecting a market lacking clear directional momentum. While shorter-term indicators suggest some selling pressure, the broader structure remains bullish, supported by long-term moving averages that continue to trend upward.From a technical standpoint, the pair presents a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index sits near 50, confirming a neutral stance, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence prints a sell signal, indicating potential near-term weakness. The Williams Percent Range and Average Directional Index are also neutral, pointing to a lack of strong directional bias in the immediate term.However, the broader trend remains constructive. The 30-day Exponential Moving Average and 50-day Exponential Moving Average, both positioned just below current levels, reinforce the underlying bullish tone. Additionally, the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, significantly lower, continue to slope upward, providing a sturdy base for the pair over the medium term.Support is found at 0.8500, 0.8470, and 0.8452. Resistance is seen at 0.8508, 0.8510, and 0.8513. A sustained move above resistance could confirm the broader bullish outlook, while a break below support would likely lead to a retest of recent lows.Daily Chart

18:10 GBP/USD pauses rally as traders eye Fed, BoE’s decisions
The Pound Sterling retreated after posting back-to-back days of gains versus the US Dollar. Still, positive news related to a possible de-escalation of the Sino-US tensions lent a lifeline to the Greenback, which remains firm in early trading.

17:45 NZD/USD corrects below 0.6000 ahead of Fed’s monetary policy
The NZD/USD pair retraces to near 0.5980 during North American trading hours on Wednesday after revisiting the six-month high of 0.6025 earlier in the day.

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The Kiwi pair faces pressure after as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens after investors “buy the rumour and sell the news” of trade discussions between the United-States (US) and China. New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.02% -0.05% 0.60% 0.09% 0.40% 0.39% -0.20% EUR -0.02% -0.08% 0.60% 0.06% 0.38% 0.36% -0.22% GBP 0.05% 0.08% 0.63% 0.16% 0.45% 0.43% -0.15% JPY -0.60% -0.60% -0.63% -0.52% -0.21% -0.17% -0.77% CAD -0.09% -0.06% -0.16% 0.52% 0.32% 0.30% -0.29% AUD -0.40% -0.38% -0.45% 0.21% -0.32% -0.01% -0.62% NZD -0.39% -0.36% -0.43% 0.17% -0.30% 0.01% -0.59% CHF 0.20% 0.22% 0.15% 0.77% 0.29% 0.62% 0.59% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote). On Tuesday, both Washington and Beijing agreed for a meeting this week in Switzerland. However, the meeting between both the nations is expected to be an initial move to de-escalation in month-long trade war and not any constructive step towards trade negotiation. “My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not about the big trade deal,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, according to CNBC.Additionally, mixed signals from the New Zealand Q1 employment data have also weighed on the Kiwi Dollar. The data showed earlier the day that the Employment Change grew by 0.1%, as expected, after declining by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2024. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 5.1%, while investors expected the jobless rate to have accelerated to 5.3%. Labor Cost Index grew at a slower-than-expected pace on both monthly and yearly basis.Soft labor cost data boost expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will reduce interest rates in the policy meeting later this month.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) flattens ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting, which will be announced at 18:00 GMT. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to keep borrowing rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. This would be the third straight policy meeting in which the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at -2.032M, above expectations (-2.5M) in May 2
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at -2.032M, above expectations (-2.5M) in May 2

17:04 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Symmetrical triangle break in focus as Fed decision looms
EUR/USD is nearing a technical inflection point, where macroeconomic divergence and chart compression converge. While strong data from Germany and France support the Euro (EUR), weak retail sales and Federal Reserve (Fed) uncertainty have dampened momentum.

16:54 USD/JPY bounces back to near 143.30 with Fed’s policy in spotlight
The USD/JPY pair rebounds to near 143.30 on Wednesday, snapping the three-day losing streak. The pair gains ground as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board.

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 3.1%, above expectations (1.4%) in March
Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 3.1%, above expectations (1.4%) in March

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) registered at 1.2% above expectations (0.3%) in March
Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) registered at 1.2% above expectations (0.3%) in March

14:59 EUR is quietly consolidating in mid/upper 1.13s – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating within a tight range in the mid/upper1.13s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating within a tight range in the mid/upper1.13s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. ECB maintains dovish tone"Data releases have been limited to euro area retail sales, in line with expectations of a 0.1% contraction for the month of March. German factory orders were stronger than expected and French wage growth accelerated in Q1. ECB comments have continued to lean dovish, with Governing Council member Stournaras saying that ‘it seems we will continue’ with rate cuts." "The statement is important, as it comes after last week’s (upside) CPI surprise. The tone of US/EU trade developments remains mixed as media continue to report on retaliatory tariff proposals as well as the proposals for purchases of US LNG and direct investments in the US."

14:54 CAD steady just below Tuesday’s multimonth high – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is soft, trading marginally lower from Tuesday’s multi-month recovery high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is soft, trading marginally lower from Tuesday’s multi-month recovery high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Near-term resistance lies above 1.3880"The meeting between President Trump and PM Carney offered a constructive tone but no indications of an easing in trade tensions as President Trump stated that there was nothing that PM Carney could say that would convince him to lift the tariffs." "Fundamentally, the CAD continues to trade just above its FV (USD/CAD spot trading below FV at 1.3824). Domestically, the next major risk event is the release of employment data (April) on Friday. The Bank of Canada also releases its Financial Stability Report on Thursday." "USD/CAD’s trend remains bearish as it extends its descending channel from mid-April. The slowing in momentum is notable and is delivering positive divergence, with the RSI failing to confirm Tuesday’s fresh multimonth low in spot. We look to fresh support around 1.3720 and see near-term resistance above 1.3880."

14:52 USD steady as markets cheer planned US/China trade talks this weekend – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is steady, attempting stabilization against most of the G10 currencies and clawing back some of its recent weakness against JPY, SEK, AUD, and NZD as we head into Wednesday’s NA session.

The US Dollar (USD) is steady, attempting stabilization against most of the G10 currencies and clawing back some of its recent weakness against JPY, SEK, AUD, and NZD as we head into Wednesday’s NA session. Broader markets are celebrating the announcement of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s trade talks with China Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland later this week, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD steady, stronger vs. JPY, SEK, AUD & JPY into Wednesday’s Fed"The talks are scheduled for Saturday and Sunday and are said to be aimed at de-escalation rather than a trade deal. Negotiations between the US and UK are also said to have intensified, as British officials have arrived in Washington for talks. President Trump had announced over the weekend the possibility of a trade deal being signed this week and the FT is confirming this possibility—specifically as it relates to the UK. The market tone is constructive and US equity futures are climbing back toward last week’s post-Liberation Day (April 2) highs." "The US 10Y yield continues to consolidate in a tight range just above 4.30% with the 2Y just above 3.80% as both await today’s 2pm ET Fed policy decision and 2:30pm ET press conference. A hold is widely anticipated and there will be no fresh set of economic projections, putting the risk squarely on Chair Powell’s press conference and the tone that he strikes as it relates to the outlook for growth and inflation within the context of trade tensions and the constructive developments that have taken place over the past month or so. Markets are still pricing several cuts into year-end and could be vulnerable to adjustment if Chair Powell leaned toward a brighter outlook.""Looking beyond the rates market, oil prices appear to remain well supported as the tentatively extend their recent recovery from the weekend’s OPEC-driven gap lower. Copper prices had initially cheered the US/China trade talk announcement but have since weakened considerably and appear to be delivering a bearish outside reversal from a local high. Finally, gold is moderately weaker following a spectacular two-day rally that delivered a fresh record closing high above $3400/oz. Wednesday’s US data release calendar is dominated by the Fed. We’ll receive third-tier consumer credit data for March at 3pm ET."

14:51 Mexican Peso steadies as markets await Powell's tone, tariff signals
The Mexican Peso (MXN) extends gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, benefiting from renewed hopes of de-escalation in global trade tensions after positive developments between the United States and China.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Mexican Peso holds gains as risk appetite improves due to the announcement of talks between the US and China.Focus turns to the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s words over the possibility of future cuts.USD/MXN steadies, with short-term resistance remaining firmly intact.The Mexican Peso (MXN) extends gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, benefiting from renewed hopes of de-escalation in global trade tensions after positive developments between the United States and China. Optimism surrounding the upcoming trade dialogue between senior US and Chinese officials, set to take place in Lucerne, Switzerland, over the weekend, has lifted broader Emerging Market (EM) sentiment. For Mexico, a reduction in global trade frictions supports external demand, reduces risk aversion, and eases pressure on capital flows, contributing to recent Peso stability.With USD/MXN trading near 19.639, down 0.17% at the time of writing, the currency pair remains tightly aligned with shifts in risk sentiment and monetary policy expectations. While global trade talks and tariff uncertainty continue to influence investor positioning, attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, due on Wednesday. Mexican Peso looks to Powell’s guidance for next policy cueThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, will be key in shaping the short-term outlook for the US Dollar and, by extension, the Mexican Peso.Although the CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 95.6% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged within the current 4.25%-4.50% range, Powell’s comments on inflation, growth, and credit conditions will be closely parsed. These remarks carry market-moving potential, particularly if they alter expectations around the anticipated rate cut in July. Shifts in US Treasury yields and the Dollar’s trajectory will likely spill over into EM currencies like the Peso, which are sensitive to global liquidity and interest rate differentials.Mexican Peso monitors US-Mexico diplomatic strainMeanwhile, tensions between Mexico and the United States remain a critical background risk. On Saturday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum publicly rejected a proposal by US President Donald Trump to send American troops into Mexico to combat drug cartels. “We respect bilateral cooperation, but we will not accept troops on our soil,” Sheinbaum said during a speech in Texcoco. Trump later confirmed the offer in comments to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, stating: “We’ve made the offer. The cartels are a threat to both nations. If they want help, we’ll give it.”On Tuesday, the Mexican Foreign Ministry responded with a formal statement reinforcing Mexico’s sovereign position: “Mexico complies with international agreements, but sovereignty is non-negotiable.” These developments, alongside existing US tariffs on Mexican exports, continue to weigh on bilateral trust and raise uncertainty for regional trade and investment.Given that approximately 80% of Mexican exports are bound for the United States, any deterioration in US-Mexico relations, whether through increased tariffs, policy divergence, or diplomatic conflict, poses a clear risk to the Peso. At the same time, positive signals from the broader global trade environment, including US-China trade discussions, may help to offset some of that pressure if sentiment continues to improve.Mexican Peso daily digest: Waiting for Powell’s words US President Donald Trump has openly criticised Fed Chair Jerome Powell over high interest rates, claiming the central bank is “hurting American competitiveness.” While the Fed maintains its independence, political rhetoric adds pressure during a sensitive policy phase.Security and trade agreements between the US and Mexico have come under renewed pressure following recent remarks by both governments. Disagreement over sovereignty and troop deployments risks complicating broader bilateral coordination, including migration and commerce.On Monday, the Mexican government unveiled a fiscal support package aimed at small businesses and infrastructure development in response to slowing growth. The initiative is intended to support domestic demand without undermining fiscal stability.The Bank of Mexico is expected to cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points on May 15, as inflation continues to cool. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.2% in Q1, avoiding a technical recession, but weak investment and external demand continue to weigh on economic momentum.Mexican Peso technical outlook: Consolidation phase signals indecisionUSD/MXN is trading near 19.64, marginally lower at the time of writing on Wednesday, extending the consolidation range between 19.46 and 19.76 since April 18. Initial support could be found at the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.60. A break below this level would re-expose the April low at 19.46. USD/MXN daily chartMomentum indicators remain subdued. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) flattens near 42.44, below the 50-neutral line, suggesting a lack of strong directional conviction. The overall structure continues to reflect indecision.To the upside, any bullish confirmation would need to surpass psychological resistance at 19.80. A break above this area could open the door for the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the April 9 high of 21.08 to the April 23 low of 19.46, at 19.85, and toward 20.07 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Still, that outcome would likely require a dovish surprise or shift in tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during today’s press conference.
Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates). Read more. Next release: Wed May 07, 2025 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4.5% Previous: 4.5% Source: Federal Reserve

14:38 US Dollar resides near five-day low as traders gauge progress in trade talks, Fed policy
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades broadly flat on Wednesday at around 99.40 after printing a fresh five-day low on Tuesday.

14:22 WTI strives to break above $60 on hopes of de-escalation in US-China trade war
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, aims to extend its two-day recovery move above the key resistance of $60.00 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to 11% in May 2 from previous -4.2%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to 11% in May 2 from previous -4.2%

13:39 USD/CAD trades higher around 1.3800, Fed policy in focus
The USD/CAD pair rises to near 1.3800 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The Loonie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) edges up ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT.

13:27 USD/CNH is likely to trade in a 7.1900/7.2300 range – UOB Group
Outlook is mixed; US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 7.1900/7.2300 range against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, USD could range-trade for a few days before resuming its decline; the level to watch is at 7.1700, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Outlook is mixed; US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 7.1900/7.2300 range against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, USD could range-trade for a few days before resuming its decline; the level to watch is at 7.1700, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD can range-trade for a few days24-HOUR VIEW: "USD fell to a low of 7.1846 on Monday and then rebounded. Yesterday, we pointed out that 'the rebound amid apparent positive divergence suggests there is room for USD to rise further to 7.2400.' USD subsequently rose but only reached 7.2351, retreating sharply from the high. The price action has resulted in a mixed outlook. Today, we expect USD to trade in a 7.1900/7.2300 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (06 May, spot at 7.2150). As highlighted, 'although a further decline remains possible, the deeply oversold short-term conditions suggest that the USD may range-trade for a few days before resuming its decline.' The level to watch is at 7.1700. Overall, only a breach of 7.2600 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 7.2800 yesterday) would mean that USD is not declining further."

13:23 USD/JPY fails at key resistance – Société Générale
USD/JPY struggles to sustain upward momentum, with a failure at key resistance and risks building for a deeper pullback toward 140 and below, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/JPY struggles to sustain upward momentum, with a failure at key resistance and risks building for a deeper pullback toward 140 and below, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Downtrend may extend"USD/JPY up move has so far remained short of the hurdle of 146.50 representing March low and the 50-DMA. It has breached the channel that encompassed recent bounce denoting a lack of steady upward momentum." "Recent pivot low of 142 is next important support. In case the pair fails to defend it, the phase of downtrend may extend. Next objectives could be located at 140/139.50 and projection of 136.50."

13:17 USD/JPY: Likely to consolidate in a 142.20/144.00 range – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to consolidate in a 142.20/144.00 range. In the longer run, USD has likely entered a consolidation phase and is likely to trade between 142.20 and 146.70 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to consolidate in a 142.20/144.00 range. In the longer run, USD has likely entered a consolidation phase and is likely to trade between 142.20 and 146.70 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD/JPY has likely entered a consolidation phase24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected USD to trade in a 143.40/144.85 range. However, USD plunged and closed at 142.41 (-0.90%). USD rebounded strongly after the NY close. The rebound, coupled with slowing momentum and oversold conditions, suggests USD will likely consolidate. Expected range for today: 142.20/144.00." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "The following are excerpts from our update yesterday, 06 May, when USD was at 144.00: 'The initial rebound from the late April low of 139.86 has been strong, but upward momentum has since slowed. USD has likely entered a consolidation phase, and it is likely to trade between 142.20 and 146.70 for now.' Our update still stands. Looking ahead, should USD break and hold below 142.20, it could trigger a deeper pullback."

13:11 NZD holds firm despite mixed jobs data – BBH
NZD/USD is consolidating recent gains around 0.6000. New Zealand’s Q1 labor market data was mixed and still argues for additional RBNZ easing, BBH FX analysts report.

NZD/USD is consolidating recent gains around 0.6000. New Zealand’s Q1 labor market data was mixed and still argues for additional RBNZ easing, BBH FX analysts report. RBNZ hints at more rate cuts"The unemployment rate was unexpectedly unchanged at 5.1% in Q1. Consensus was for a 0.2pts rise to 5.3% while the RBNZ had 5.2% penciled-in. However, other data point to weaker demand for labor. The underutilisation rate rose 0.1pts to 12.3% (the highest since Q3 2020) and the participation rate fell 0.1pts to 70.8% (the lowest since Q2 2021). Moreover, wage growth cooled more than expected. Private wages increased 0.4% q/q (consensus: 0.5%, RBNZ forecast: 0.6%) vs. 0.6% in Q4 and slowed at an annual pace of 2.6% (lowest since Q3 2021) vs 3% in Q4.""At its April 8 meeting, the RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 3.50% and noted it 'has scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate'. The RBNZ warned that “the recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation in New Zealand.” The swaps market price-in 75bps of rate cuts in the next six months and the OCR to bottom around 2.75%. The risk is the RBNZ slashes the OCR towards the lower end of its 2% to 4% neutral range estimate.""RBNZ published its six-monthly Financial Stability Report and warned that financial stability risks increased due to the trade war. Encouragingly, the RBNZ also noted that banks were in a strong financial position to manage potential loan defaults."

13:04 Gold tumbles as progress in US-China trade talks offsets India-Pakistan conflict
Gold (XAU/USD) drops by more than 1% on Wednesday to $3,391 at the time of writing, ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision and after statements from both China and the United States (US) confirmed that trade talks will kick off this weekend.

13:03 NZD/USD: Chance of breaking above 0.6030 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could break above 0.6030 vs US Dollar (USD) but might not be able to maintain a foothold above this level; 0.6060 is probably out of reach.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could break above 0.6030 vs US Dollar (USD) but might not be able to maintain a foothold above this level; 0.6060 is probably out of reach. In the longer run, NZD is likely to trade with an upside bias to 0.6030, with scope to extend further to 0.6060, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 0.6060 is probably out of reach24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected NZD to 'trade in a range between 0.5930 and 0.5980' yesterday. We were incorrect as NZD soared and closed on a strong note at 0.6013 (+0.77%). The rapid increase in momentum could lead to NZD breaking above last month’s high, near 0.6030. However, as conditions are overbought, NZD might not be able to maintain a foothold above this level. The next resistance at 0.6060 is probably out of reach. Support is at 0.6000; a breach of 0.5980 would suggest the current upward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We indicated yesterday (06 May, spot at 0.5955) that 'for the time being, we expect NZD to trade in a 0.5890/0.6005 range.' We added, 'Looking ahead, provided that NZD does not break clearly below 0.5890, there is a chance for it to retest last month’s high, near 0.6030.' NZD subsequently soared and rose above 0.6005, reaching a high of 0.6013. There has been a rapid increase in short-term momentum, and this will likely lead to NZD rising to 0.6030, with scope to extend further to 0.6060. For the upside bias to hold, NZD must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.5950."

13:00 Federal Reserve set to hold interest rate as bets rise on June cut
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions following the May policy meeting on Wednesday.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Federal Reserve is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting.Fed Chairman Powell will speak on the policy outlook in a press conference.The US Dollar could stay resilient against its rivals if the Fed keeps its focus on the inflation outlook.The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions following the May policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants widely anticipate the US central bank will leave policy settings unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, after cutting the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the 4.25%-4.5% range in December.The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors virtually see no chance of a rate cut in May, while pricing in about a 30% probability of a 25 bps reduction in June. Hence, market participants will scrutinize the changes in the policy statement and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the post-meeting press conference for fresh hints on the timing of the next rate cut. Before the Fed went into the blackout period, several policymakers voiced their concerns over the uncertainty created by the US’ new trade regime weighing on the labor market.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that some businesses indicate that they are preparing for possible job cuts if uncertainty continues. Similarly, Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Bloomberg that he wouldn’t be surprised to see more layoffs and higher unemployment, adding that rising unemployment could pave the way for rate cuts. As the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 177,000 in April, surpassing the market expectation of 130,000, and the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, investors turned reluctant to price in a rate cut in June. Previewing the Fed’s May meeting, analysts at Danske Bank said, “We expect the Fed to maintain its monetary policy unchanged in the May meeting, in line with consensus and market pricing.”“While we expect the Fed to resume cutting rates in June, we doubt Powell will opt for clear forward guidance amid the tariff uncertainty. Growth risks remain tilted to the downside, but rising inflation expectations are still a concern,” the analysts added. Related news Why is the Fed expected to hold interest rates despite Trump’s pressure to cut them US: This week's Federal Reserve communications will be very closely watched FOMC in focus, with Oil price declines helping to ease inflation fears When will the Fed announce its interest rate decision and how could it affect EUR/USD?The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision and publish the monetary policy statement on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. This will be followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference starting at 18:30 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to how the Fed and Chairman Powell assess the latest economic developments. Although the April employment report showed that conditions in the labor market remain relatively healthy, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported in its flash estimate that the US’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter.In case the Fed acknowledges a heightened risk of a recession and its potential negative impact on hiring, investors could see that as a dovish language. In this scenario, the US Dollar (USD) could come under renewed selling pressure. On the other hand, investors could refrain from pricing in a rate cut in June and help the USD outperform its rivals, if the Fed downplays growth concerns and implies that it will remain patient about policy adjustments while waiting to see how tariffs will impact inflation.Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, provides a short-term technical outlook for EUR/USD:“The near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart retreating toward 50. Additionally, EUR/USD trades near the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after holding comfortably above this level throughout April.”“On the downside, the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of the uptrend that started in January forms key support at 1.1200. In case EUR/USD makes a daily close below this level and starts using it as resistance, technical sellers could remain interested, opening the door for an extended slide toward 1.1015-1.1000 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, round level, 50-day SMA) and 1.0860 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). Looking north, interim resistance could be spotted at 1.1440 (static level) before 1.1520 (end-point of the uptrend) and 1.1600 (round level, static level)." Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

12:59 The talks between the US and China begin – Commerzbank
After a long period of uncertainty, it is now official: negotiations on a deal between the US and China are going to begin, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

After a long period of uncertainty, it is now official: negotiations on a deal between the US and China are going to begin, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. US-China talks officially resume"This raises hopes of a rapprochement and ultimately a reduction in the reciprocal punitive tariffs. After the US government had backtracked significantly and the tariffs will undoubtedly hit China's economy hard, this may no longer come as too much of a surprise. The dollar should therefore only benefit to a limited extent. Especially as residual uncertainty remains." "It remains to be seen what the leadership from Washington and Beijing will ultimately agree on. The status quo may not be sustainable, but the economic and ideological rivalry is a reality and is likely to prevent a return to (largely) free trade between the countries. It can therefore be assumed that the economic pain from the trade dispute will ease, but not disappear."

12:54 Pound Sterling declines against US Dollar ahead of Fed’s monetary policy announcement
The Pound Sterling (GBP) falls slightly to near 1.3330 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling drops to near 1.3330 against the US Dollar ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy announcement.The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady, while the BoE is set to reduce them on Thursday.US-China trade talks will be the key trigger for the global market.The Pound Sterling (GBP) falls slightly to near 1.3330 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair faces pressure as the USD ticks higher ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT, in which the central bank is almost certain to keep interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25-4.50%.This would be the third straight policy meeting in which the Fed will leave borrowing rates steady amid uncertainty over how new economic policies by United States (US) President Donald Trump will shape the economy. A string of Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have guided that “wait and see” is an optimal approach until they get clarity on how much new policies will influence inflation and the economic outlook.US consumer inflation expectations have elevated as local business owners have clarified that they will pass on the impact of high import duties to consumers, a compelling factor for the Fed to demand more time before making any monetary policy adjustments. Additionally, steady job growth in the wake of Trump’s tariff policies is another limiting factor for the Fed to act prematurely by lowering interest rates.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling is broadly firm, BoE policy in focusThe Pound Sterling takes a breather on Wednesday after a sharp upside move the previous day. The British currency remains firm against its peers as the United Kingdom (UK) and the US are close to signing a bilateral trade deal. A report from the Financial Times (FT) showed on Tuesday that both countries are close to a trade agreement in which the US will lower tariffs on UK steel and cars. In return, the UK would reduce tariffs on autos and agricultural products from the US and make changes to the digital services tax.Going forward, the major trigger for the British currency will be the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Thursday. The BoE is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%. This would be the fourth interest rate cut by the BoE in the current monetary easing cycle, which started in August last year.Investors will pay close attention to the BoE’s guidance on the monetary policy and the economic outlook. Market experts believe that the BoE could guide an aggressive policy-easing outlook in the wake of the US-China trade war. Investors worry that China would move to other economies to sell its products. Given the low-cost competitive advantage of China, the competitiveness of products from other nations would diminish if Beijing pushes more products into the global market.Meanwhile, the US and China have agreed to trade discussions this week. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed on late Tuesday that they will meet their Chinese counterparts for trade discussions this week in Geneva. This will be the first confirmed meeting between the world’s two largest powerhouses since the imposition of reciprocal tariffs and retaliatory duties announced by the US and China, respectively.Earlier this week, US Secretary Bessent signaled that Washington will have trade talks with Beijing sooner as these tariff rates are not sustainable. A positive outcome from the US-China trade talks will be favorable for risky assets across the globe.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling holds key level of 1.3300The Pound Sterling corrects 0.3% to near 1.3330 against the US Dollar at the time of writing, but still holds the key level of 1.3300. The overall outlook remains bullish as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to return above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI manages to do so.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3445 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 3 high around 1.3200 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:52 EUR/USD shakes off German political wobble – Danske Bank
Despite political noise out of Germany, EUR/USD held firm as markets eye the Fed for hints of dovishness and remain positioned for further USD weakness over the year, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

Despite political noise out of Germany, EUR/USD held firm as markets eye the Fed for hints of dovishness and remain positioned for further USD weakness over the year, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. Fed in focus as dovish risk looms"Yesterday's session proved a poor one for the USD and despite the slight German policy scare on Merz not winning the first chancellor vote EUR/USD still ended the session solidly higher around the 13.50-level." "Today focus will turn to the FOMC meeting this evening. Our base case entails little change to the USD upon announcement/the press conference although the balance of risk is probably skewed towards a slight dovish surprise and hence a weaker greenback." "We see EUR/USD moving higher over the coming year with a 12M target of 1.22, and 10y UST yield declining to 4.20%. Upside risks to yields are more related to the term premium component, than risk-neutral rate expectation. Finally, we do not expect changes to the QT after the taper announcement in March."

12:41 Merz elected after rocky start, Euro shrugs off drama – Commerzbank
While some politically savvy people may have fallen off their chairs yesterday after the first round of voting for the new German Chancellor, the fx market seemed less than impressed, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

While some politically savvy people may have fallen off their chairs yesterday after the first round of voting for the new German Chancellor, the fx market seemed less than impressed, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. FX markets unfazed by initial German chancellor setback"EUR/USD fell briefly after the news that Friedrich Merz had not received the necessary votes for the 'chancellor majority', but recovered quickly. The exchange rate even ended trading at higher levels. However, this is unlikely to be due to the fact that Merz was ultimately elected Chancellor in the second round.""Rather, the initial reactions of many observers indicated that Merz was expected to become chancellor after a second round of voting anyway. Potential alternatives such as a new election - as the dissenters from the coalition ranks must have realised - would have been rather self-defeating for them.""All's well that ends well? Hardly. The initial election defeat has shown how fragile the majority under which Merz will govern is. After all, it is completely unclear what prompted the dissenters to make their decision - was it dissatisfaction with Merz himself or with the coalition agreement? Accordingly, scepticism is appropriate with regard to the large fiscal package that the new government is planning and therefore also with regard to the euro."

12:34 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:34 European gas prices surge on EU energy plan – ING
European natural gas prices displayed plenty of strength yesterday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

European natural gas prices displayed plenty of strength yesterday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.EU to ban new Russian gas contracts by 2025"The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) rallied 5.5%, its largest daily increase since mid-March. The move was driven by the EU’s plan to phase out Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. This includes phasing out long-term gas contracts by the end of 2027." "More importantly, the plan includes banning all new contracts and ending existing spot contracts by the end of 2025. The EU believes these measures will cut Russian gas flows to the EU by one-third by the end of the year. Further details are expected next month.""Meanwhile, reports that power flows to the Freeport LNG export terminal in the US stopped suggest a production disruption at the 20bcm export plant. This could provide some further support to European gas prices in the immediate term, depending on the duration of the outage."

12:29 Fed expected to hold rates amid trade uncertainty – Commerzbank
Apart perhaps from the US President, hardly any market participants are likely in any doubt that the US Fed will leave interest rates unchanged today.

Apart perhaps from the US President, hardly any market participants are likely in any doubt that the US Fed will leave interest rates unchanged today. The statement following the decision should also come as little surprise: Uncertainty regarding the impact of US tariff policy is still too high, one would have to wait for data on the economy and especially on inflation to be able to assess in which direction the risks are tilted - various FOMC members have hinted at this sufficiently in advance. Against this backdrop, the Fed meeting threatens to become a non-event for the dollar - despite the commotion in recent weeks, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Powell faces renewed political pressure on cuts"Fed Chair Jay Powell will not be able to avoid commenting on the US President's attacks. But what can he say, apart from what he has already said on the subject in the past? The independence of the US Federal Reserve is established by law and so on and so forth. Today, it should still be easy for Powell to give the impression that the Fed is independent and can resist political pressure to cut interest rates.""An increasingly weak economy is likely to massively increase political pressure. The longer the Fed can withstand this pressure, i.e. the longer it holds interest rates, the better for the dollar. In contrast, any signs that it will soon cut interest rates are likely to weaken the US currency. After all, the suspicion that the political pressure has had an effect will be difficult to shake off in this case. Our US experts assume that the Fed will take until September to make its first rate cut. Until then, its steadfastness should benefit the dollar.""This is all the more the case the more economic growth threatens to weaken. Some may then accuse the Fed of falling 'behind the curve'. However, independence is not only characterised by being able to do the right thing (from the central bank's point of view), but - and this might be an umcomfortable truth - it is just as important to have the freedom to make potential mistakes."

12:19 PBOC expands Gold reserves for sixth straight month in April
The latest data published by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) showed that China continued to build its Gold reserves for a sixth month in a row in April.

The latest data published by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) showed that China continued to build its Gold reserves for a sixth month in a row in April.Key detailsBullion held by the PBOC rose by about 70,000 troy ounces last month.China's Gold reserves at the end of April were at 73.77 million ounces, up from 73.70 million ounces at the end of March.In value terms, the reserves at the end of April amount to $243.59 billion versus $229.59 billion at the end of March.

12:11 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Falls toward ascending channel lower boundary near 0.6450
The AUD/USD pair breaks its three-day winning streak, trading around 0.6480 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a persistent bullish bias as the pair is moving upwards within the ascending channel pattern.

12:10 US-China trade talk hopes push oil higher – ING
News that the US and China will start trade talks this weekend has Brent crude trading higher, extending a relief rally in oil yesterday. Talks would be a sign of potential de-escalation in trade tensions.

News that the US and China will start trade talks this weekend has Brent crude trading higher, extending a relief rally in oil yesterday. Talks would be a sign of potential de-escalation in trade tensions. Yet while negotiations would help improve sentiment in the oil market, we’ll need to see significant progress on lowering tariffs to improve the demand outlook, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.OPEC+ to continue with aggressive supply hikes"In addition, the supply side looks increasingly more comfortable due to the aggressive supply hikes from OPEC+. This is particularly so toward the latter part of the year, when the oil surplus is expected to grow. Clearly, the risk to this view is OPEC+ reversing policy once again." "We’d have to see members who’ve consistently produced at above target levels start adhering to their targets. Kazakhstan is reportedly considering its options to meet targets. Our oil balance assumes OPEC+ continues with aggressive supply hikes through the third quarter, in line with increases announced for May and June.""American Petroleum Institute numbers, released overnight, were fairly constructive. US crude inventories fell by 4.49m barrels over the last week, while stocks at the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) delivery hub, Cushing, fell by 854k barrels. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 1.97m barrels. Distillate stocks grew by 2.24m barrels."

12:04 GBP/USD expected to be between 1.3300 and 1.3400 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), expected to be between 1.3300 and 1.3400. In the longer run, the current price movements are part of a 1.3240/1.3450 range-trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), expected to be between 1.3300 and 1.3400. In the longer run, the current price movements are part of a 1.3240/1.3450 range-trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements are part of a range-trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for GBP to trade with a downward bias yesterday was incorrect, as after dipping to a low of 1.3260, GBP soared, reaching a high of 1.3402. The subsequent pullback from the high amid overbought conditions suggests GBP is likely to trade in a range today, expected to be between 1.3300 and 1.3400." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted yesterday (06 May, spot at 1.3280) that 'while the pullback from the late Apr high of 1.3445 has not gathered much momentum, there is room for GBP to continue to pull back.' We added, 'However, it remains to be seen if GBP can reach the major support at 1.3160.' We did not expect GBP to rebound to 1.3402, breaking above our ‘strong resistance’ at 1.3360. Downward momentum has faded with the rebound. We view the current price movements as part of a 1.3240/1.3450 range-trading phase."

12:02 Eurozone Retail Sales rise 1.5% YoY in March vs. 1.6% expected
The Eurozone’s Retail Sales increased 1.5% year-over-year in March, following a revised 1.9% growth in February, according to official data released by Eurostat on Wednesday. Markets estimated a 1.6% figure.

Eurozone annual Retail Sales rose 1.5% in March.Retail Sales in the old continent came in at -0.1% MoM in March.The Eurozone’s Retail Sales increased 1.5% year-over-year in March, following a revised 1.9% growth in February, according to official data released by Eurostat on Wednesday. Markets estimated a 1.6% figure.On a monthly basis, Retail Sales in the old continent declined 0.1% in the same period versus February’s +0.2% revision while coming in below the 0% estimated reading.FX implicationsThe Eurozone data fail to move a needle around the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is trading 0.08% lower on the day at 1.1360, as of writing.

12:00 Singapore Foreign Reserves (MoM) rose from previous 381.1B to 389.2B in April
Singapore Foreign Reserves (MoM) rose from previous 381.1B to 389.2B in April

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in March
Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in March

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 1.5%, below expectations (1.6%) in March
Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 1.5%, below expectations (1.6%) in March

11:58 USD: Dollar rally unimpressive so far – ING
Last night's news that the US and China would begin formal trade talks on 10-11 May to de-escalate the tariff war saw the dollar briefly spike 0.4/0.5%.

Last night's news that the US and China would begin formal trade talks on 10-11 May to de-escalate the tariff war saw the dollar briefly spike 0.4/0.5%. Remember that in April, the defensive yen and Swiss franc currencies were the big beneficiaries of 'reciprocal' tariffs and the uniform sell-off in US asset markets. In theory, then, de-escalation should see USD/JPY and USD/CHF lead the recovery. Despite the nice recovery in US equities, there still seems to be a sense of hangover in the FX and bond markets, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY can drift back to 99.25 in quiet markets "For today, we see two important US inputs to the dollar story. The first is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's testimony to the House on the 'State of the International Financial System'. Presumably, he'll argue that US bond markets are functioning in an orderly manner and probably repeat the mantra that Washington retains a strong dollar policy. It will be interesting, however, if he's quizzed on whether currency deals are part of the trade negotiations currently underway with 17 other trading partners. Expect Bessent to step carefully on this subject, but we think this testimony presents a downside risk to the dollar.""We also have the FOMC meeting and Chair Powell's press conference this evening. We doubt this will prove a major market mover as the Fed continues to resist presidential pressure to cut rates. It seems the market is comfortable enough waiting for the next Fed rate cut in July, while also waiting on the hard data to determine how deeply the Fed cuts. Markets have recently pared back about 20bp of the Fed's next easing cycle – again asking why the dollar isn't doing any better?""DXY stalled last week exactly where it should have if we are seeing a weak bear market correction. We imagine there are a lot of protective buy stops above 101.00 now. But for the time being, DXY price action has been poor and a drift back to 99.25 in quiet markets will confirm that the dollar is struggling to shake the risk premium associated with uncertain US policymaking."

11:53 China: Imports come into play – Standard Chartered
China’s exports likely to plunge, but imports may also slow, mitigating the tariff impact on net exports. Import intensity has been falling due to ‘onshoring’ of production and economic rebalancing.

China’s exports likely to plunge, but imports may also slow, mitigating the tariff impact on net exports. Import intensity has been falling due to ‘onshoring’ of production and economic rebalancing. China’s importance as a final demand market has risen notably, adding to its trade bargaining power, Standard Chartered's economists note. A changed playbook"The US and China’s mutual tariffs have scaled sharply higher, with bilateral trade set to collapse near-term. While we estimate the direct drag on China’s GDP growth at nearly 1.8ppt in the next 12 months, the final result may not be as devastating. The 90-day tariff delay for the US’ other trade partners keeps the door open for Chinese goods to flow along the supply chain. Some export-oriented goods could also be pivoted to China’s domestic market. And moderate CNY depreciation could help adjust the trade balance, which, along with China’s decreasing import reliance and shift in focus to supporting domestic consumption, may somewhat offset the trade war’s negative impact on net exports.""As a final demand destination, China’s share of global value-added imports (adjusted for re-exports and intermediate goods trade) has grown in the past two decades while the US’ share has fallen notably. We see significant potential for China to boost domestic consumption’s share of GDP, which should make it attractive to global exporters and add to its bargaining power in trade negotiations.""While policy-makers’ strategy to increase China’s self-reliance and rebalance the economy should lower overall import intensity, import demand may continue to expand as the consumption-focused growth model takes hold and its benefits are shared with China’s trade partners via a continued opening up of its markets. For now, China remains deeply integrated in the global manufacturing supply chain and trade system; as such, we think the US-China trade standoff is unsustainable and bilateral tariffs will likely be lowered substantially over the coming months."

11:38 US Dollar Index holds gains near 99.50 ahead of Fed decision, awaits Powell’s remarks
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.50 during European hours on Wednesday, rebounding after losing over 0.50% in the previous session.

11:36 GBP: Trade deals can help – ING
Sterling is trading steadily, but politics should be supportive this month. We've already seen a new UK-Indian trade deal announced yesterday, but speculation is rising that a US-UK trade deal could be reached this week, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Sterling is trading steadily, but politics should be supportive this month. We've already seen a new UK-Indian trade deal announced yesterday, but speculation is rising that a US-UK trade deal could be reached this week, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.GBP/USD to trade back to the 1.3445 high "It's unclear whether London will be able to negotiate away the 10% baseline US tariffs, but it might be able to secure reductions in the 25% tariff rate on the car and steel sectors. Additionally, we're still focusing on the 19 May UK-EU summit – the first since Brexit. Warming relations with the EU typically sees sterling rally.""We've also got the small matter of the Bank of England rate-setting meeting tomorrow. Our UK economist, James Smith, thinks the market has got ahead of itself in pricing too many rate cuts this year. We therefore have a bias that GBP/USD trades back to the 1.3445 high over the next couple of days."

11:32 EUR/USD likely to trade between 1.1290 and 1.1390 – UOB Group
Price action did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.1290 and 1.1390 vs US Dollar (USD).

Price action did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.1290 and 1.1390 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase between 1.1225 and 1.1410, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted yesterday that EUR 'is under mild downward pressure.' We expected it to edge lower, but we were of the view that 'any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.1280. Although EUR subsequently dipped to 1.1278, it rebounded strongly to 1.1381 and closed at 1.1368 (+0.48%). In early Asian trade today, EUR fell sharply from the closing level. The price action did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum. Today, we expect EUR to trade in a range between 1.1290 and 1.1390." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Not much has changed since our update yesterday (06 May, spot at 1.1310). As highlighted, we view the current price movements as part of a consolidation phase and expect EUR to trade between 1.1225 and 1.1410 for now."

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI: 46.6 (April) vs 46.4
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI: 46.6 (April) vs 46.4

11:25 EUR: Weakened Merz doesn't do too much damage – ING
It's been quite an attractive story to tell that if German fiscal expansion caused the EUR/USD exchange rate to rise significantly in March (from 1.04 to 1.09), then a weakened Friedrich Merz should see EUR/USD fall a few figures back, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

It's been quite an attractive story to tell that if German fiscal expansion caused the EUR/USD exchange rate to rise significantly in March (from 1.04 to 1.09), then a weakened Friedrich Merz should see EUR/USD fall a few figures back, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.The market remains nervous over US policy"His failure in the first confirmation round in German parliament yesterday did briefly send EUR/USD back to 1.1310, but EUR/USD is proving quite resilient. There's also an argument that China's monetary stimulus announced overnight is a EUR/USD positive as it helps global demand trends.""As for EUR/USD, it held important support at 1.1260 last week. The market remains nervous over US policy, and dollar price action is quite poor. We have a slight bias that it can push through 1.1380 to 1.1420 in quiet markets."

11:14 USD/CHF rises above 0.8250 as traders expect Fed to leave rates unchanged
USD/CHF halts its three-day losing streak, hovering around 0.8250 during Wednesday’s European session as the US Dollar (USD) gains traction.

11:01 China Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM): $3.282T (April) vs $3.241T
China Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM): $3.282T (April) vs $3.241T

11:00 Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY): -2.8% (March) vs previous -1.5%
Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY): -2.8% (March) vs previous -1.5%

11:00 Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.2%) in March
Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.2%) in March

10:58 EUR/USD holds onto gains ahead of Fed’s monetary policy decision
EUR/USD clings to the previous day’s gains around 1.1370 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The major currency pair trades firmly as the US Dollar (USD) ticks down ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT.

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The major currency pair trades firmly as the US Dollar (USD) ticks down ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades with caution inside Tuesday’s range around 99.40.According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have fully priced in that the Fed will leave interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference to get fresh cues about how long the central bank will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.Fed officials have indicated that monetary policy adjustments are not appropriate until they see cracks in the labor market and economic growth, as consumer inflation expectations have de-anchored due to the fallout of new economic policies by United States (US) President Donald Trump. April’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data showed steady job growth, a limiting factor for the Fed in reducing interest rates. Meanwhile, the US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, but the reason was the significant surge in imports frontloaded by US business owners to avoid the impact of higher tariffs.Contrary to the Fed’s guidance, President Trump has repeatedly urged the central bank, especially Jerome Powell, to lower interest rates. Trump also threatened to discharge Powell from his duties for not reducing borrowing costs despite easing energy prices, food items, etc.Apart from the Fed policy, the US-China trade talks in Geneva are a major trigger for the US Dollar. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed on late Tuesday that they will meet their Chinese counterparts for trade discussions. Investors see this as a constructive step towards de-escalation in the Sino-US trade war, which has supported S&P 500 futures.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD trades firmly as Merz sworn in as German ChancellorEUR/USD demonstrates strength as the Euro (EUR) trades firmly after Conservative leader Friedrich Merz was sworn in as Chancellor of Germany in the second attempt. Merz failed to secure an absolute majority in the first attempt despite CDU/CSU and Social Democrats collectively having a vote bank of 326. Merz received 310 votes in the first attempt, six fewer than the 316 required to be elected as German Chancellor.The confirmation of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor has diminished fears of political instability and is expected to boost defense spending measures approved in March. This scenario would strengthen the German economy and favor the Euro and German assets.However, the upside in the Euro appears to be limited as the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to continue easing the monetary policy in the June meeting. The ECB is almost certain to cut its key interest rates again next month as officials are more focused on absorbing economic shocks in the face of tariffs announced by US President Trump than Eurozone inflation, which is expected to return to the central bank’s target of 2% this yearOn the global front, the European Union (EU) Commission is actively considering measures to offset the impact of higher tariffs by the US. On Tuesday, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic stated that the continent is exploring countermeasures while Trump has delayed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days. However, Sefcovic clarified that the foremost priority of the EU is trade resolution with the US. A Bloomberg report showed on Tuesday that the EU plans to hit about 100 billion Euros worth of US goods with additional tariffs if trade talks fail to deliver a satisfactory result for the bloc.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD holds key 20-day EMAEUR/USD trades firmly near 1.1370 on Wednesday, while the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.1270 continues to act as a major support for the pair.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating that the bullish momentum is concluded for now. However, the upside bias still prevails.Looking up, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the 25 September high of 1.1214 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:30 China: Meeting with the US on trade is at the US' request
Headlines crossed from China on Wednesday, with Beijing clarifying that the “meeting with the US on trade is at the US' request.”

10:04 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates mixed at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.27, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 95.85.

10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) climbed from previous -0.8% to -0.4% in April
Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) climbed from previous -0.8% to -0.4% in April

10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY): -1% (April) vs previous -0.2%
Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY): -1% (April) vs previous -0.2%

10:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves: 703B (April) vs previous 726B
Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves: 703B (April) vs previous 726B

09:57 Forex Today: All eyes on Fed rate decision, Powell presser
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 7:

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During the European trading hours, Eurostat will publish Retail Sales data for March. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.38% -0.78% -1.24% -0.09% -0.47% -0.97% -0.30% EUR 0.38% -0.13% -0.62% 0.55% 0.18% -0.32% 0.34% GBP 0.78% 0.13% -0.71% 0.68% 0.31% -0.20% 0.47% JPY 1.24% 0.62% 0.71% 1.19% 0.80% 0.37% 1.08% CAD 0.09% -0.55% -0.68% -1.19% -0.67% -0.87% -0.21% AUD 0.47% -0.18% -0.31% -0.80% 0.67% -0.50% 0.17% NZD 0.97% 0.32% 0.20% -0.37% 0.87% 0.50% 0.66% CHF 0.30% -0.34% -0.47% -1.08% 0.21% -0.17% -0.66% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The USD Index, which tracks the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, closed in negative territory for the third consecutive trading day on Tuesday. Early Wednesday, the USD Index fluctuates in a narrow channel below 99.50. Later in the day, the Fed is widely anticipated to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. Market participants will pay close attention to Powell's comments on the inflation and growth outlook. Meanwhile, US stock index futures were last seen rising about 0.4% on the day, after Wall Street's main indexes registered large losses on Tuesday. US Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender said late Tuesday that despite ongoing market tensions and investor concerns about US economic stability, demand for US Treasuries and USD remain high. Related news Why the Fed won't cut interest rates despite Trump’s pressure to lower them Powell to defy White House and market expectations appear “overly aggressive” for 2025 The Monetary Sentinel: Tariffs and growth outlook bolster a cautious message During the Asian trading hours, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gosheng announced that they've decided to cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) and the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) and 10 bps, respectively, following a meeting with the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the National Financial Regulatory Authority. AUD/USD advanced to a fresh 2025-high above 0.6500 following this development before retreating below this level by the European session.Gold built on Monday's impressive gains and rose nearly 3% on Tuesday to touch a fresh two-week high above $3,430. XAU/USD corrects lower midweek and trades below $3,400, losing more than 1% on the day. In addition to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, India-Pakistan conflict helped the precious metal rose sharply in the first half of the week.EUR/USD benefited from the broad USD weakness and rose nearly 0.5% on Tuesday. The pair moves sideways above 1.1350 in the European session on Wednesday.GBP/USD gathered bullish momentum and climbed above 1.3400 on Tuesday. The pair edges lower early Wednesday but holds above 1.3350. The Bank of England will announce policy decisions on Thursday.After losing nearly 1% on Monday, USD/JPY continued to push lower and fell about another 1% on Tuesday. The pair stages a rebound early Wednesday and trades near 143.00. In the Asian session on Thursday, the Bank of Japan will publish Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

09:46 France Imports, EUR climbed from previous €57.54B to €58.799B in March
France Imports, EUR climbed from previous €57.54B to €58.799B in March

09:46 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $973.20 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $978.15.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $973.20 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $978.15.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $988.42 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also under pressure after the XPT/USD pair settled at $989.20 at the previous close.

09:45 France Current Account rose from previous €-1.9B to €1.4B in March
France Current Account rose from previous €-1.9B to €1.4B in March

09:45 France Trade Balance EUR registered at €-6.248B above expectations (€-6.9B) in March
France Trade Balance EUR registered at €-6.248B above expectations (€-6.9B) in March

09:45 France Exports, EUR increased to €52.551B in March from previous €49.67B
France Exports, EUR increased to €52.551B in March from previous €49.67B

09:45 France Imports, EUR rose from previous €57.54B to €58.8B in March
France Imports, EUR rose from previous €57.54B to €58.8B in March

09:45 France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0%) in 1Q
France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0%) in 1Q

09:25 FX option expiries for May 7 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 7 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 7 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1200 1.3b1.1400 1.7b1.1450 807mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 142.50 1b143.20 976m145.00 1.1b145.50 1.1bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6400 694m0.6600 717mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3775 642m1.3800 633mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8550 480m0.8680 760m

09:08 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.35 per barrel, up from Tuesday’s close at $58.71.

09:05 German Factory Orders jump 3.6% MoM in March vs. 1.3% expected
The official data published by the Federal Statistics Office showed Friday that Germany's Factory Orders jumped more than expected in March, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector has picked up momentum.

09:02 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to 3.8% in March from previous -0.2%
Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to 3.8% in March from previous -0.2%

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.3%) in March: Actual (3.6%)
Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.3%) in March: Actual (3.6%)

09:00 Russia S&P Global Services PMI unchanged at 50.1 in April
Russia S&P Global Services PMI unchanged at 50.1 in April

08:53 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Tests support around 1.1350, upside appears due to bullish bias
EUR/USD retraces its recent gains from the previous session, hovering near 1.1360 during Wednesday’s Asian session. Technical analysis on the daily chart continues to show a bullish bias, with the pair staying within an ascending channel pattern.

08:34 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Slides to mid-1.3300s amid some USD buying ahead of Fed decision
The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday and erodes a part of its weekly gains registered over the past two days, to the 1.3400 mark. The intraday slide is sponsored by a modest US Dollar (USD) strength and drags spot prices below mid-1.3300s in the last hour.

08:14 China’s President Xi: We must firmly maintain post-war international order
Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday, “we must firmly maintain post-war international order.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday, “we must firmly maintain post-war international order.”Additional quotesChina, Russia have always firmly supported each other.Should jointly resist any attempt to disrupt the friendship and mutual trust.China, Russia are both major powers with important influence in maintaining global strategic stability.No matter how the situation in Taiwan changes, China will eventually 'reunify' with Taiwan.

07:46 WTI advances to one-week high, closer to mid-$59.00s as traders eye US-China trade talks
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices gain some follow-through positive traction on Wednesday and climb to a one-week high during the Asian session.

07:44 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades lower near $33.00 due to US-China trade talks
Silver (XAG/USD) retreated on Wednesday during Asian trading hours, hovering around $33.00 per troy ounce after two consecutive days of gains.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,200.70 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,329.68 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 107,314.90 per tola from INR 108,819.50 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,200.70 10 Grams 92,008.32 Tola 107,314.90 Troy Ounce 286,173.80 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by a combination of factors as traders away Fed decision US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland on Saturday to discuss trade and economic issues. This marks the first direct talks since the US imposed tariffs on China and a step toward resolving a trade war between the world's two largest economies. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he and top administration officials will review potential trade deals over the next two weeks to decide which ones to accept. This, however, counters Trump's earlier statement that his administration could announce trade deals with some countries as soon as this week. Furthermore, Trump had announced 100% tariffs on movies produced outside the US and also indicated that he plans to announce fresh tariffs on pharmaceutical imports over the next two weeks. This keeps investors on the edge and might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price amid rising geopolitical risks. A Kremlin spokesman says Russia will stick to its plans for a unilaterally-imposed ceasefire between 8 and 11 May but warned that an appropriate response will be given immediately if Ukraine does not also halt the fire. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine swapped 205 prisoners of war each in an exchange mediated by the United Arab Emirates. Israel's security Cabinet unanimously approved a plan to widen the military offensive in Gaza. The plan involves the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) invading and gradually seizing control of Gaza territory. Although no formal details were announced, officials said the operation would not begin until after Trump’s visit to the Middle East next week. Investors keenly await the Federal Reserve’s decision later this Wednesday. The accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the post-meeting press conference will be scrutinized for cues about the future rate-cut path. This will drive the US Dollar demand and influence the non-yielding yellow metal. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:17 Japanese Yen drifts lower as investors cheer US-China trade talks
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens across the board during the Asian session on Wednesday as the optimism over the US-China trade talks is seen undermining demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

06:45 USD/CAD advances to near 1.3800 despite improved risk sentiment, Fed decision awaited
USD/CAD is recovering its losses registered in the previous session, trading around 1.3790 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

06:04 USD/INR gains ground as US Dollar appreciates ahead of Fed decision
The Indian Rupee (INR) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) during Wednesday's Asian trading session.

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The USD/INR pair extends its gains for the second successive session as the US Dollar (USD) appreciates, with traders turning cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision expected later in the North American session. The USD/INR pair may continue to face resistance as the Indian Rupee (INR) tracks gains in domestic assets, with India's relatively low reliance on exports helping cushion the impact of aggressive US tariffs. Additionally, limited capital outflows have supported the INR, as increased Oil output from OPEC+ and mounting US growth concerns have weighed on crude and fuel prices, key components of India’s import bill.Recent data showed India’s inflation rate dropped to its lowest level in over five years in March, falling well below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% mid-point target. Meanwhile, GDP growth moderated to 6.5% in the last fiscal year, down from 8.2% previously, prompting the central bank to prioritize growth concerns.Despite these factors supporting the Indian Rupee, the USD/INR pair rises due to importer hedging demand and potential dollar-buying interventions from the RBI, which is expected to continue strengthening its foreign exchange reserves. Geopolitical tensions also loom, with India launching strikes on targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir under "Operation Sindoor," two weeks after a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir. The Indian defence ministry framed the operation as a response to the April 22 attack that killed 25 Indians and one Nepali national. Pakistan, denying involvement, condemned the strikes as “unprovoked,” with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowing retaliation, according to the BBC.Indian Rupee gains ground as US Dollar struggles ahead of Fed policy decision The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.Markets are closely watching Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, particularly amid tariff-related uncertainty and mounting pressure from President Donald Trump for rate cuts.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva over the weekend, marking the first high-level talks since the US imposed tariffs that escalated into a global trade dispute.China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that, after carefully evaluating US proposals and considering global expectations, national interests, and industry feedback, Beijing has agreed to engage in the upcoming negotiations.US economic data showed strength in the services sector: the ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 in April, beating forecasts of 50.6 and up from 50.8 in March. The New Orders Index increased to 52.3 from 50.4, while the Services Employment Index rose to 49 from 46.2.A nationwide mock drill is scheduled for Wednesday, with all states and Union territories set to activate air-raid sirens and conduct training on evacuation procedures, as well as the cleaning and maintenance of bunkers and trenches, in preparation for a potential "hostile attack." This large-scale emergency preparedness exercise—reportedly the first of its kind since 1971—will take place in most regions at 4 PM.The drill comes in response to a directive from the Union Home Ministry, issued on Monday, urging states and Union territories to bolster readiness amid "new and complex threats" arising from heightened tensions with Pakistan following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, which claimed 26 lives.The HSBC India Composite PMI came in at 59.7 in April 2025, just below the flash estimate of 60.0 but higher than March’s 59.5, signaling the 45th straight month of private sector expansion. Meanwhile, the Services PMI was revised down to 58.7 from the preliminary reading of 59.1. Despite the downward revision, it remained above both the March figure and market expectations of 58.5, extending the services sector’s growth streak to 45 consecutive months.Traders anticipate India’s 10-year government bond yield to remain in the 6.30%–6.40% range this week, with attention centered on bond purchases and geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan.The recent decline in yields is driven by expectations of further rate cuts and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintaining surplus liquidity in the banking system through ongoing open market operations (OMOs), according to Reuters.This week, the RBI plans to purchase bonds worth ₹750 billion ($8.88 billion), with two additional rounds of ₹250 billion each scheduled later this month. Year-to-date, the central bank has acquired ₹3.65 trillion in bonds via OMOs and ₹388 billion through secondary market purchases. This unexpected liquidity injection is likely to aid policy transmission and boost growth amid global uncertainties, said Radhika Rao, executive director and senior economist at DBS Bank. USD/INR trades near 84.50 after reaction at nine-day EMA resistance The Indian Rupee gains ground, with the USD/INR pair hovering around 84.60 on Wednesday. Daily chart technicals suggest a continued bearish outlook, as the pair remains within a descending channel pattern.On the downside, support is seen near the lower boundary of the descending channel at approximately 84.10. A clear break below this level could accelerate the downward move, potentially pushing the pair toward its eight-month low at 83.76.To the upside, initial resistance is located around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 84.69. A sustained move above this level could boost short-term bullish momentum, targeting the descending channel’s upper boundary near 86.20, with additional resistance at the two-month high of 86.71.USD/INR: Daily Chart Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:39 NZD/USD moves away from over two-week high, slides back below 0.6000 mark
The NZD/USD pair retreats following an Asian session uptick to the 0.6020-0.6025 area, or over a two-week high, and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak.

05:17 Gold price retreats sharply from two-week top amid US-China trade talks optimism
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts heavy selling during the Asian session on Wednesday and snaps a two-day winning streak to a two-week high, around the $3,434-3,435 region touched the previous day.

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The global risk sentiment gets a strong boost following the announcement of the US-China trade talks in Switzerland this week. This, in turn, undermines the safe-haven bullion, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, contributes to the intraday downfall. Meanwhile, the US-China trade negotiations are likely to be complex, and reaching a comprehensive trade deal is expected to be time-consuming. This could keep a lid on the market optimism, which, along with persistent geopolitical tensions, could support the Gold price. Moreover, the USD bulls might opt to wait for the outcomes of a two-day FOMC meeting. This further warrants caution before placing aggressive bearish bets around the non-yielding Gold price. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by receding safe-haven demand amid US-China trade talks optimismUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland on Saturday to discuss trade and economic issues. This marks the first direct talks since the US imposed tariffs on China and a step toward resolving a trade war between the world's two largest economies. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he and top administration officials will review potential trade deals over the next two weeks to decide which ones to accept. This, however, counters Trump's earlier statement that his administration could announce trade deals with some countries as soon as this week.Furthermore, Trump had announced 100% tariffs on movies produced outside the US and also indicated that he plans to announce fresh tariffs on pharmaceutical imports over the next two weeks. This keeps investors on the edge and might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price amid rising geopolitical risks.A Kremlin spokesman says Russia will stick to its plans for a unilaterally-imposed ceasefire between 8 and 11 May but warned that an appropriate response will be given immediately if Ukraine does not also halt the fire. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine swapped 205 prisoners of war each in an exchange mediated by the United Arab Emirates.Israel's security Cabinet unanimously approved a plan to widen the military offensive in Gaza. The plan involves the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) invading and gradually seizing control of Gaza territory. Although no formal details were announced, officials said the operation would not begin until after Trump’s visit to the Middle East next week.Investors keenly await the Federal Reserve’s decision later this Wednesday. The accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the post-meeting press conference will be scrutinized for cues about the future rate-cut path. This will drive the US Dollar demand and influence the non-yielding yellow metal. Gold price could accelerate the corrective fall once the $3,365-3,360 throwback support is broken decisivelyFrom a technical perspective, the overnight sustained breakout through the $3,360-3,365 horizontal barrier and a subsequent move beyond the $3,400 mark was seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. However, the strong uptrend witnessed since the beginning of this week falters near the $3,430-3,435 resistance. The said area should now act as a pivotal point, above which the XAU/USD could aim to challenge the all-time peak touched in April and conquer the $3,500 psychological mark. On the flip side, weakness below the $3,365-3,360 area could find some support near the $3,328-3,327 region ahead of the $3,300 round figure. Failure to defend the said support levels would negate the near-term positive outlook and make the Gold price vulnerable. The downward trajectory might then drag the XAU/USD pair to the $3,265-$3,260 intermediate support en route to the $3,223-3,222 region and the last week's swing low, around the $3,200 neighborhood. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

04:55 China Securities Regulator Head: US tariff policy has brought great pressure to capital markets
The head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said on Wednesday, “US tariff policy has brought great pressure to China's capital markets.”

04:39 PBOC Governor Pan announces LPR 10 bps cut, RRR 50 bps cut and 7-day RR cut to 1.4%
Following a meeting with the People's Bank of China (PBOC), China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Financial Regulatory Authority, the Chinese central bank Governor Pan Gosheng announces interest rates cuts.

Following a meeting with the People's Bank of China (PBOC), China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Financial Regulatory Authority, the Chinese central bank Governor Pan Gosheng announces interest rates cuts.Key quotesThe world is full of uncertainties.China financial system remains robust despite shocks.yuan rebounds against dollar after depreciation.Will cut policy rate by 10 bps.Will cut Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 50 bps.Seven-day Repo Rate (RR) to be cut to 1.4%, from 1.5%.Policy rate cut will lead to Loan Prime Rate (LPR) cut by 10 bps.RRR cut will release about CNY1 trillion in liquidity.Will set up 500bn Yuan in re-lending loans for elderly care and service consumption.

04:17 AUD/USD rises above 0.6500 following domestic data, US-China trade talks eyed
The AUD/USD pair continues its upward momentum for the fourth consecutive session, hovering around the 0.6510 mark during Wednesday’s Asian trading hours. The Australian Dollar (AUD) finds support from releasing domestic mid-tier economic data and improving global trade sentiment.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2005 vs. 7.2008 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 7.2005 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2008 and 7.2124 Reuters estimate.

03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above forecasts (52.2) in April: Actual (52.4)
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above forecasts (52.2) in April: Actual (52.4)

03:05 EUR/USD continues to muddle along ahead of key Fed showing
EUR/USD muddled through Tuesday’s market action, marking out a fresh near-term consolidation range near the 1.1300 major handle as Fiber traders wait for a reason to move.

02:20 GBP/USD catches some lift on hopes for a US-UK trade deal
GBP/USD rose on Tuesday, climbing four-tenths of one percent on the day and testing the 1.3400 handle on headlines of a possible US-UK trade deal that would see the UK avoid the brunt of trade tariffs being actively pursued by the Trump administration.

01:52 Gold soars to two-week high on trade jitters, India-Pakistan tensions
Gold rallied to a two-week peak on Tuesday as the Chinese markets resumed operations following a long weekend holiday and concerns about US trade policies. Geopolitical risks also boosted the precious metal, with a new conflict emerging between Pakistan and India.

01:45 New Zealand Labour Cost Index (YoY) below expectations (2.7%) in 1Q: Actual (2.5%)
New Zealand Labour Cost Index (YoY) below expectations (2.7%) in 1Q: Actual (2.5%)

01:45 New Zealand Participation Rate below forecasts (71%) in 1Q: Actual (70.8%)
New Zealand Participation Rate below forecasts (71%) in 1Q: Actual (70.8%)

01:45 New Zealand Employment Change meets forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q
New Zealand Employment Change meets forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q

01:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate came in at 5.1%, below expectations (5.3%) in 1Q
New Zealand Unemployment Rate came in at 5.1%, below expectations (5.3%) in 1Q

01:45 New Zealand Labour Cost Index (QoQ) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in 1Q
New Zealand Labour Cost Index (QoQ) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in 1Q

01:00 AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Aussie softens near 1.0800 as bearish tone gains traction
The AUD/NZD pair edged lower on Tuesday, trading near the 1.0800 zone after a steady decline through the European session. Price action remained confined within the day’s range, but the downside drift highlights the underlying bearish tone as the pair approaches the Asian session.

AUD/NZD was seen around the 1.0800 zone after retreating through Tuesday’s post-European session.Bearish bias is reinforced by downward pressure from long-term averages.Key support sits just below, while resistance is defined by clustered short-term moving averages.The AUD/NZD pair edged lower on Tuesday, trading near the 1.0800 zone after a steady decline through the European session. Price action remained confined within the day’s range, but the downside drift highlights the underlying bearish tone as the pair approaches the Asian session. Despite some mixed momentum signals, the dominant pressure appears to come from the broader trend indicators.Technically, AUD/NZD is flashing a bearish overall signal. The Relative Strength Index remains neutral near 49, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence prints a soft buy signal — suggesting that momentum is stabilizing but not reversing. The Awesome Oscillator is also neutral, but the Average Directional Index leans bearish, pointing to an active downtrend that may continue in the short term.The broader structure supports the bearish view. The 30-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages — both positioned above price — signal persistent resistance. Similarly, the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages remain well above current levels and continue to slope downward. While the 20-day SMA offers some support just beneath spot, it lacks alignment with the longer-term trend.Support is found at 1.0797, 1.0791, and 1.0777. Resistance levels are located at 1.0819, 1.0822, and 1.0842. A sustained break below support could accelerate downside pressure, while any bounce would likely meet stiff resistance near the converging short-term averages.Daily Chart

00:30 USD/JPY firms as trade tensions and Fed caution weigh on Dollar
USD/JPY is trading weaker on Tuesday, hovering in the 142.00 area as safe-haven demand strengthens the Japanese Yen.

USD/JPY extends decline, trading near the lower end of the range as safe-haven flows support the Yen ahead of the Fed decision.Trade frictions between the US and Japan, along with softening US growth data and geopolitical risks, dampen risk sentiment.Technical signals turn bearish with the pair capped below key moving averages, and momentum indicators suggesting further downside.USD/JPY is trading weaker on Tuesday, hovering in the 142.00 area as safe-haven demand strengthens the Japanese Yen. Risk aversion has intensified as global investors respond to elevated geopolitical uncertainty, including tensions in the Middle East, renewed trade frictions, and shifting global central bank dynamics. Market participants are awaiting the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, with a particular focus on the tone of Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance.In Washington, US President Donald Trump held a joint press conference with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, downplaying the need to renegotiate USMCA and instead focusing on broader trade priorities. Trump’s comments about China’s economic struggles and his administration’s active negotiations with 17 trading partners added to market unease. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the US had formally rejected Japan’s request for tariff relief, maintaining the 10% and 14% levies on Japanese exports. Japan’s efforts to push for a comprehensive trade deal remain stalled, heightening uncertainty for bilateral relations.US economic data continue to offer a mixed picture. The March trade deficit widened significantly, likely contributing to a downward revision in Q1 GDP figures. Although the April ISM services PMI rose to 51.6 from 50.8, internal components such as activity and employment disappointed. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now forecasts Q2 growth at 1.1%, a sharp drop from earlier projections. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, but the market will closely watch Powell’s press conference for clues on future rate path. Traders currently price in one rate cut by July and a second by year-end.Japanese data remain sparse, but the country’s position in US trade discussions is under scrutiny. With no breakthrough in tariff talks, Japanese exporters face headwinds, especially in autos and metals. Additionally, a scheduled visit by US agricultural officials to Tokyo underscores the interconnected nature of trade diplomacy, as Washington seeks concessions across sectors.Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, USD/JPY is flashing bearish signals. The pair is currently trading near the bottom of its daily range (142.35 – 144.27), down −0.88% on the session. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.334 remains neutral, while the MACD gives a mild buy signal, creating short-term noise. However, the Awesome Oscillator at −1.680 is flat, and the ADX (14) at 28.468 confirms rising selling pressure.Key moving averages further reinforce the bearish outlook. The 20-day SMA at 143.20, 100-day at 150.73, and 200-day at 149.67 all point lower. Shorter-term trend lines, including the 10-day EMA at 143.41 and SMA at 143.33, now act as overhead resistance. A sustained move below 142.00 could open the door to further losses, while only a break above 144.00 would ease current downside momentum.With geopolitical tensions, mixed US macro data, and unresolved US-Japan trade disputes weighing on sentiment, USD/JPY remains vulnerable in the near term. The Fed’s communication on Wednesday will be a key driver for whether this downtrend deepens or stabilizes.Daily Chart

00:00 EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Euro drifts near 162.00 as bearish pressure starts to build
The EUR/JPY pair weakened slightly on Tuesday, hovering around the 162.00 mark after the European session, with price action holding mid-range between intraday highs and lows.

EUR/JPY trades around the 162.00 zone after slipping modestly on Tuesday’s session.Overall bias leans bearish, with short-term averages and MACD confirming downside risk.Key support levels are close below, while longer-term trend indicators remain mildly bullish.The EUR/JPY pair weakened slightly on Tuesday, hovering around the 162.00 mark after the European session, with price action holding mid-range between intraday highs and lows. While selling pressure remains contained, short-term technicals continue to lean bearish, setting the stage for potential further softness heading into the Asian session.Momentum readings are mixed. The Relative Strength Index holds near the 49 level, indicating neutral momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence, however, issues a sell signal, confirming that bearish momentum may be gathering strength. Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI Fast and Commodity Channel Index are both neutral, offering no clear counterweight to the bearish signals.The trend picture is skewed toward the downside in the short term. The 10-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages are both trending lower and now sit above price action, acting as overhead resistance. The 20-day Simple Moving Average reinforces this outlook with a similar downward slope. However, the longer-term 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages remain below and rising, suggesting broader trend support still holds for now.Support is seen at 161.75, 161.70, and 161.51. Resistance levels are aligned at 162.10, 162.14, and 162.29. A break below support could trigger a deeper pullback, while reclaiming the short-term moving averages would be required to neutralize the immediate bearish tone.Daily Chart

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19:50 Dow Jones Industrial Average holds steady ahead of Fed rate call The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trimmed into the midrange during early Wednesday trading, treading water just above the 41,000 major handle as investors await the latest rate call from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

19:28 US Treasury Secretary Bessent: China trade talks to begin Saturday United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed that US-China trade talks will begin on neutral ground when delegates from the two countries meet in Switzerland this weekend.

17:45 NZD/USD corrects below 0.6000 ahead of Fed’s monetary policy The NZD/USD pair retraces to near 0.5980 during North American trading hours on Wednesday after revisiting the six-month high of 0.6025 earlier in the day.

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at -2.032M, above expectations (-2.5M) in May 2 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at -2.032M, above expectations (-2.5M) in May 2

16:54 USD/JPY bounces back to near 143.30 with Fed’s policy in spotlight The USD/JPY pair rebounds to near 143.30 on Wednesday, snapping the three-day losing streak. The pair gains ground as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board.

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 3.1%, above expectations (1.4%) in March Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 3.1%, above expectations (1.4%) in March

15:00 Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) registered at 1.2% above expectations (0.3%) in March Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) registered at 1.2% above expectations (0.3%) in March

14:59 EUR is quietly consolidating in mid/upper 1.13s – Scotiabank The Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating within a tight range in the mid/upper1.13s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:54 CAD steady just below Tuesday’s multimonth high – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is soft, trading marginally lower from Tuesday’s multi-month recovery high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:52 USD steady as markets cheer planned US/China trade talks this weekend – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is steady, attempting stabilization against most of the G10 currencies and clawing back some of its recent weakness against JPY, SEK, AUD, and NZD as we head into Wednesday’s NA session.

14:51 Mexican Peso steadies as markets await Powell's tone, tariff signals The Mexican Peso (MXN) extends gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, benefiting from renewed hopes of de-escalation in global trade tensions after positive developments between the United States and China.

14:22 WTI strives to break above $60 on hopes of de-escalation in US-China trade war West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, aims to extend its two-day recovery move above the key resistance of $60.00 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to 11% in May 2 from previous -4.2% United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to 11% in May 2 from previous -4.2%

13:39 USD/CAD trades higher around 1.3800, Fed policy in focus The USD/CAD pair rises to near 1.3800 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The Loonie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) edges up ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT.

13:23 USD/JPY fails at key resistance – Société Générale USD/JPY struggles to sustain upward momentum, with a failure at key resistance and risks building for a deeper pullback toward 140 and below, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

13:11 NZD holds firm despite mixed jobs data – BBH NZD/USD is consolidating recent gains around 0.6000. New Zealand’s Q1 labor market data was mixed and still argues for additional RBNZ easing, BBH FX analysts report.

13:03 NZD/USD: Chance of breaking above 0.6030 – UOB Group New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could break above 0.6030 vs US Dollar (USD) but might not be able to maintain a foothold above this level; 0.6060 is probably out of reach.

13:00 Federal Reserve set to hold interest rate as bets rise on June cut The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions following the May policy meeting on Wednesday.

12:59 The talks between the US and China begin – Commerzbank After a long period of uncertainty, it is now official: negotiations on a deal between the US and China are going to begin, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

12:54 Pound Sterling declines against US Dollar ahead of Fed’s monetary policy announcement The Pound Sterling (GBP) falls slightly to near 1.3330 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Wednesday.

12:52 EUR/USD shakes off German political wobble – Danske Bank Despite political noise out of Germany, EUR/USD held firm as markets eye the Fed for hints of dovishness and remain positioned for further USD weakness over the year, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

12:34 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:34 European gas prices surge on EU energy plan – ING European natural gas prices displayed plenty of strength yesterday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

12:29 Fed expected to hold rates amid trade uncertainty – Commerzbank Apart perhaps from the US President, hardly any market participants are likely in any doubt that the US Fed will leave interest rates unchanged today.

12:19 PBOC expands Gold reserves for sixth straight month in April The latest data published by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) showed that China continued to build its Gold reserves for a sixth month in a row in April.

12:10 US-China trade talk hopes push oil higher – ING News that the US and China will start trade talks this weekend has Brent crude trading higher, extending a relief rally in oil yesterday. Talks would be a sign of potential de-escalation in trade tensions.

12:02 Eurozone Retail Sales rise 1.5% YoY in March vs. 1.6% expected The Eurozone’s Retail Sales increased 1.5% year-over-year in March, following a revised 1.9% growth in February, according to official data released by Eurostat on Wednesday. Markets estimated a 1.6% figure.

12:00 Singapore Foreign Reserves (MoM) rose from previous 381.1B to 389.2B in April Singapore Foreign Reserves (MoM) rose from previous 381.1B to 389.2B in April

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in March Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in March

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 1.5%, below expectations (1.6%) in March Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 1.5%, below expectations (1.6%) in March

11:58 USD: Dollar rally unimpressive so far – ING Last night's news that the US and China would begin formal trade talks on 10-11 May to de-escalate the tariff war saw the dollar briefly spike 0.4/0.5%.

11:53 China: Imports come into play – Standard Chartered China’s exports likely to plunge, but imports may also slow, mitigating the tariff impact on net exports. Import intensity has been falling due to ‘onshoring’ of production and economic rebalancing.

11:36 GBP: Trade deals can help – ING Sterling is trading steadily, but politics should be supportive this month. We've already seen a new UK-Indian trade deal announced yesterday, but speculation is rising that a US-UK trade deal could be reached this week, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:32 EUR/USD likely to trade between 1.1290 and 1.1390 – UOB Group Price action did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.1290 and 1.1390 vs US Dollar (USD).

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI: 46.6 (April) vs 46.4 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI: 46.6 (April) vs 46.4

11:14 USD/CHF rises above 0.8250 as traders expect Fed to leave rates unchanged USD/CHF halts its three-day losing streak, hovering around 0.8250 during Wednesday’s European session as the US Dollar (USD) gains traction.

11:01 China Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM): $3.282T (April) vs $3.241T China Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM): $3.282T (April) vs $3.241T

11:00 Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY): -2.8% (March) vs previous -1.5% Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY): -2.8% (March) vs previous -1.5%

11:00 Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.2%) in March Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.2%) in March

10:30 China: Meeting with the US on trade is at the US' request Headlines crossed from China on Wednesday, with Beijing clarifying that the “meeting with the US on trade is at the US' request.”

10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) climbed from previous -0.8% to -0.4% in April Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) climbed from previous -0.8% to -0.4% in April

10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY): -1% (April) vs previous -0.2% Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY): -1% (April) vs previous -0.2%

10:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves: 703B (April) vs previous 726B Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves: 703B (April) vs previous 726B

09:57 Forex Today: All eyes on Fed rate decision, Powell presser Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 7:

09:46 France Imports, EUR climbed from previous €57.54B to €58.799B in March France Imports, EUR climbed from previous €57.54B to €58.799B in March

09:45 France Current Account rose from previous €-1.9B to €1.4B in March France Current Account rose from previous €-1.9B to €1.4B in March

09:45 France Trade Balance EUR registered at €-6.248B above expectations (€-6.9B) in March France Trade Balance EUR registered at €-6.248B above expectations (€-6.9B) in March

09:45 France Exports, EUR increased to €52.551B in March from previous €49.67B France Exports, EUR increased to €52.551B in March from previous €49.67B

09:45 France Imports, EUR rose from previous €57.54B to €58.8B in March France Imports, EUR rose from previous €57.54B to €58.8B in March

09:45 France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0%) in 1Q France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0%) in 1Q

09:25 FX option expiries for May 7 NY cut FX option expiries for May 7 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

09:08 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.35 per barrel, up from Tuesday’s close at $58.71.

09:05 German Factory Orders jump 3.6% MoM in March vs. 1.3% expected The official data published by the Federal Statistics Office showed Friday that Germany's Factory Orders jumped more than expected in March, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector has picked up momentum.

09:02 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to 3.8% in March from previous -0.2% Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to 3.8% in March from previous -0.2%

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.3%) in March: Actual (3.6%) Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.3%) in March: Actual (3.6%)

09:00 Russia S&P Global Services PMI unchanged at 50.1 in April Russia S&P Global Services PMI unchanged at 50.1 in April

08:14 China’s President Xi: We must firmly maintain post-war international order Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday, “we must firmly maintain post-war international order.”

07:46 WTI advances to one-week high, closer to mid-$59.00s as traders eye US-China trade talks West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices gain some follow-through positive traction on Wednesday and climb to a one-week high during the Asian session.

07:44 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades lower near $33.00 due to US-China trade talks Silver (XAG/USD) retreated on Wednesday during Asian trading hours, hovering around $33.00 per troy ounce after two consecutive days of gains.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:17 Japanese Yen drifts lower as investors cheer US-China trade talks The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens across the board during the Asian session on Wednesday as the optimism over the US-China trade talks is seen undermining demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

06:45 USD/CAD advances to near 1.3800 despite improved risk sentiment, Fed decision awaited USD/CAD is recovering its losses registered in the previous session, trading around 1.3790 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

06:04 USD/INR gains ground as US Dollar appreciates ahead of Fed decision The Indian Rupee (INR) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) during Wednesday's Asian trading session.

05:39 NZD/USD moves away from over two-week high, slides back below 0.6000 mark The NZD/USD pair retreats following an Asian session uptick to the 0.6020-0.6025 area, or over a two-week high, and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak.

05:17 Gold price retreats sharply from two-week top amid US-China trade talks optimism Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts heavy selling during the Asian session on Wednesday and snaps a two-day winning streak to a two-week high, around the $3,434-3,435 region touched the previous day.

04:55 China Securities Regulator Head: US tariff policy has brought great pressure to capital markets The head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said on Wednesday, “US tariff policy has brought great pressure to China's capital markets.”

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2005 vs. 7.2008 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 7.2005 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2008 and 7.2124 Reuters estimate.

03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above forecasts (52.2) in April: Actual (52.4) Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above forecasts (52.2) in April: Actual (52.4)

03:05 EUR/USD continues to muddle along ahead of key Fed showing EUR/USD muddled through Tuesday’s market action, marking out a fresh near-term consolidation range near the 1.1300 major handle as Fiber traders wait for a reason to move.

01:45 New Zealand Labour Cost Index (YoY) below expectations (2.7%) in 1Q: Actual (2.5%) New Zealand Labour Cost Index (YoY) below expectations (2.7%) in 1Q: Actual (2.5%)

01:45 New Zealand Participation Rate below forecasts (71%) in 1Q: Actual (70.8%) New Zealand Participation Rate below forecasts (71%) in 1Q: Actual (70.8%)

01:45 New Zealand Employment Change meets forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q New Zealand Employment Change meets forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q

01:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate came in at 5.1%, below expectations (5.3%) in 1Q New Zealand Unemployment Rate came in at 5.1%, below expectations (5.3%) in 1Q

01:45 New Zealand Labour Cost Index (QoQ) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in 1Q New Zealand Labour Cost Index (QoQ) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in 1Q

00:30 USD/JPY firms as trade tensions and Fed caution weigh on Dollar USD/JPY is trading weaker on Tuesday, hovering in the 142.00 area as safe-haven demand strengthens the Japanese Yen.

00:00 EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Euro drifts near 162.00 as bearish pressure starts to build The EUR/JPY pair weakened slightly on Tuesday, hovering around the 162.00 mark after the European session, with price action holding mid-range between intraday highs and lows.

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